MIT’s poor forecasts and the implications for America’s R&D system

Only 4 of 40 technologies identified as breakthrough technologies by MIT's Technology Review between 2001 and 2005 have sales greater than $10 billion while eight technologies not predicted by Technology Review have sales greater than $10 billion including three with greater than $100 billion and one other with greater than $50 billion. Since forecasts reflect research activities, these results suggest that few technologies are emerging from America's universities. Consistent with other analyses, these results suggest America needs a new R&D system.