Mistaken marginalization of Germany’s AfD
Mistaken marginalization of Germany’s AfD
COMMENT BY?PRINCE MICHAEL OF LIECHTENSTEIN
German leaders would be better off trying to understand the grievances that are behind the rising popularity of the Alternative for Germany, rather than continuing to isolate the party.
Friedrich Merz, chairman of Germany’s largest party, the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), indicated that a collaboration with the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party at the municipal level could be a possibility. This resulted in an outcry.
Especially during the 16-year chancellorship of Angela Merkel, the CDU maintained a strict firewall between themselves and the AfD, which many in the media and politics label as populist, nationalist and?right-wing. The party was founded in 2013 by three economists who shared the classical liberal views of Ludwig Erhard, the West German minister of economy from 1949 to 1963 and chancellor from 1963 to 1966 who is credited for Germany’s post-World War II economic miracle.?
Erhard’s social market economy, established in the 1950s, was the cornerstone of Germany’s recovery. It rested on three pillars: economic liberalization, free markets and a policy of order. The policy of order protected the vulnerable, promoted competition and limited government interference in business and the economy.?
Over time, the original principles were largely abandoned in favor of increased government intervention, burdensome red tape and a progressively inefficient welfare state. The AfD founders – Bernd Lucke, Joachim Starbatty and Hans-Olaf Henkel, all three economists –?also pointed out some of Europe’s structural weaknesses, especially in the construction of the common currency and disapproved of national and European policies that led to excessive debt and government spending.?
Chancellor Merkel saw this party as a threat to her European policies and branded them anti-Europeans and right-wing. However, these labels were incorrect. Criticizing European policies does not necessarily imply opposition to European integration, and advocating for sound economics is not equivalent to extreme right-wing ideology.?
In the 2014 European Parliament elections in Germany, the party secured 7 percent of the vote and 11 percent in 2019. The Merkel government continued to marginalize the party and push it into the?right-wing?corner. This unfortunate approach allowed other elements within the AfD to remove the three founders, partially fulfilling Ms. Merkel’s claims.
Marginalizing 20 percent of voters is unwise and will likely strengthen the protest movement.
The party now encompasses a wide spectrum of different voices and serves as a platform for voters who disagree with the prevailing policies in Germany, particularly regarding declining prosperity and infrastructure. It is fundamentally incorrect to label a large portion of the population – mainly frustrated by public inefficiencies – as anti-constitutional radicals. Such characterizations do not accurately reflect the diverse range of views within the party and its supporters.?
There is ample reason for protest, as Germany’s infrastructure has significantly degraded over the past 20 years. For example, the Swiss rail system no longer welcomes an increased number of German trains due to the decline in the reliability of the German rail system.?
Over-bureaucratization and high taxation have also led to general frustration among employees, who lose almost half of their pay to taxes and social security. Additionally, an irrational immigration policy has contributed to overall dissatisfaction.
Despite being shunned by other political actors, recent polls indicate that the AfD has become the second-largest party after the CDU, garnering 20 percent support. Apart from the policies of past governments, marginalization has played a role in the AfD’s success.?
Mr. Merz faces heavy criticism for trying to ease the party’s isolation. However, he is right in acknowledging that voters are driven to the AfD for reasons, irrespective of differences in policy. The AfD leadership consists of diverse personalities with varying views.?
Marginalizing 20 percent of voters is unwise and will likely strengthen the protest movement. A better approach would be to include the reasonable aspects of the party and focus on implementing reforms and improvements in the areas rightfully criticized by the AfD.?
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European conservative parties are out of ideas, but absorbing the far right isn’t the answer
From Germany’s CDU to France’s Républicains, politicians are looking to fringe ideologies for revitalisation
European conservatism is in crisis. Traditional centre-right parties are increasingly facing challenges from their right by parties with more energy and extreme proposals for addressing the multitude of crises facing the continent. While centre-right parties may not have much in the way of ideas to resolve?Europe’s polycrisis,?they do still know how to fight for power. Their instinctive drive for self-preservation means conservatives are radicalising, particularly over issues of race, in order to cut off their insurgent rivals.
Take France, where the formerly dominant Les Républicains (LR) party has entered a death spiral, with its last presidential candidate,?Valerie Pécresse, failing to reach even the 5% vote threshold required to get her deposit back. LR’s response was to elect as leader éric Ciotti, a far-rightist who once declared that the “great replacement” – a fascist conspiracy theory claiming there is a deliberate attempt to demographically annihilate white Europeans –?was a priority?of national importance. This sort of discourse was until recently confined to figures in the?National Rally?party (previously the National Front).
Emmanuel Macron has also embraced the language of the radical right as he attempts to pacify what he perceives to be a groundswell of support for authoritarian racism in France. Following a series of violent killings across the country, the French president invoked the spectre of “decivilisation”. After the unrest that followed the police shooting of a teenager, he?reprised this, talking up a “crisis of civilisation” and “social depravity”.
The idea of decivilisation is of a piece with the great replacement. The precise origin of the term is unknown, but Renaud Camus, the French fascist writer and originator of the great replacement theory, also wrote a book titled Decivilisation, about how social equality degenerated western culture. Some offhand comments should not be taken as evidence that Macron is a committed white nationalist, but these are the ideological waters into which the president is dipping his toes.
In Germany, the far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) is beginning to break through, winning a?district in the state of Thuringia?in June. In July, the leader of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), Friedrich Merz, endorsed local coalitions between the CDU and AfD. He backpedalled after a?widespread outcry, but the incident is illustrative.
As well as the crumbling barrier between centre-right conservatives and the far right, there are signs of a brewing radicalisation inside the CDU. In January this year, Hans-Georg Maa?en – the former head of Germany’s intelligence agency and a CDU candidate in Thuringia in the 2021 general election – claimed that the dominant force in German politics was “eliminatory racism?against whites”. He directly invoked the great replacement theory, saying he rejected “ideological positions that demand the extinction of … those with white skin colour through mass immigration”. Maa?en remains a member of the CDU, though a botched attempt to expel him was made, and he chairs a grassroots organisation that explicitly aims to radicalise the party.
Spain’s conservative party is also ripe for radicalisation, actively aiding and abetting the far right’s ascent. Although the right of the People’s party (PP) currently refrains from open racism, the prominence of its regional president in Madrid, the rightwing Isabel Díaz Ayuso, does not bode well.
Ayuso has said in the past that the PP and the far-right Vox party?agree on many fundamental issues, and many are touting her as the logical choice for the next party leader. Equally concerning are the local coalition deals between the PP and Vox. The pact between the parties has just seen the great replacement proponent?Gabriel Le Senne?become the president of the Balearic parliament.
These sorts of stories are now familiar across Europe. From Greece, where the prime minister, Kyriakos Mitsotakis, won the 2023 election promising a wall to prevent an “organised invasion of illegal migrants”, to Scandinavia, where the Finnish and Swedish right are in coalition with far-right parties.
There is a reason the great replacement is a recurring theme throughout this shift in the European right. Conservatism’s default response to social problems is to individualise them and attribute the responsibility for various issues to those who experience them. This individualistic framing doesn’t wash any more as Europe faces what the historian Adam Tooze refers to as?a polycrisis. These multiple interlocking crises are so obviously structural that it would be ridiculous to attribute their effects to individual moral failing.
Conservatives are generally uncomfortable attributing structural causes to problems, especially when so many crises are?tied to the economic model?they have spent decades championing. This is where the great replacement comes in. As mendacious and deranged as it is, it provides a structural explanation for various aspects of the polycrisis, and comes with in-built agonism for politicians to exploit.
Climate crisis? It’s not fossil fuels, it’s overpopulation. Economic crisis? It’s not austerity and corporate power depriving citizens of stable work and functioning services – it’s the immigrants. Crime and social alienation? It’s not poverty and deprivation, instead immigrants are waging war against you and have destroyed the halcyon days of a cohesive white culture.
Conservatives will likely continue to move according to the gravitational pull of their parties to the right in order to prevent their own collapse. If they cannot formulate their own remedies and structural explanations for the crisis they helped cause, the lazy and cynical will continue to feel the allure of a theory such as the great replacement.
It lets them off the hook for the failures of the world they helped build and allows them to present as populists while they do so. In fits and starts, European conservatism is absorbing the far right. We can expect to hear a lot more about the great replacement.
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Saudi Arabia's interest in Ukraine is growing - opinion
The summit in Jeddah brought together senior officials from around 40 countries, making it a significant diplomatic effort.
By?DAVID KIRICHENKO?Published:?AUGUST 24, 2023?
While Russia’s war continued to grind on in Ukraine, the world’s attention briefly shifted in May 2023 to an unexpected location for peace negotiations –?Saudi Arabia. The kingdom hosted peace talks among Western countries, Ukraine, and key developing nations such as India and Brazil, to discuss President Volodymyr Zelensky’s peace plan. This gathering, which excluded Russia, further underscores Saudi Arabia’s rising influence and indicates increasing global support for Ukraine.
The summit in Jeddah brought together senior officials from around 40 countries, making it a significant diplomatic effort. What made this event even more noteworthy was the participation of members of the Global South, some of whom had close ties with Russia during the conflict. Notably, China is made its debut in such a forum, despite its close relations with Russia. Saudi Arabia’s growing influence is prompting engagement from nations previously hesitant to join peace talks.?
This was the inverse of how China played a role in securing a historic deal between Iran and Saudi Arabia in March 2023. Russia’s absence underscored the diplomatic challenges it faces as it lacks the ability to secure wide international support for its war against Ukraine.
Saudi Arabia’s involvement in Ukrainian affairs did not happen overnight. The Kingdom’s relationship with Ukraine dates back to 1991 when the latter gained independence from the USSR. In the year 2000, Saudi Arabia showed greater interest in strengthening bilateral ties, particularly in agricultural and economic sectors.
A close partnership with Ukraine aligns well with the Saudi government’s Vision 2030, a strategy focused on diversifying the country’s economy and boosting non-oil exports. Ukraine’s agricultural prowess presents an opportunity for the Kingdom to address risks with food security, as Saudi Arabia is heavily dependent on importing much of its food supply from abroad.
Key to that is a strong partnership with Ukraine, which was the kingdom’s second-largest supplier of wheat in 2021. The relationship with Ukraine is a far easier one to manage than the one with Russia. The latter brings a lot of diplomatic baggage from its war in Ukraine and a lack of faithfulness on Russia’s side, especially regarding oil cooperation.
Russia continues to tray blockading Ukrainian grain exports
Russia’s continued efforts to blockade?Ukrainian grain exports?endanger food security – not just for Saudi Arabia, but for millions of people across Africa and Asia – are top of mind for policymakers across the Middle East and beyond.
Beyond economic cooperation, the military-industrial complex is also witnessing joint ventures between the two countries. The development of the Hrim-2 short-range ballistic missile in Ukraine was reportedly funded secretly by Saudi Arabia with a $40 million investment. In return, the kingdom gained access to critical missile technology which boosted Saudi Arabia’s position as a significant defense partner for Ukraine, with the kingdom becoming a primary importer of Ukrainian weaponry.
Saudi Arabia’s extensive collusion with Russia in cutting oil production, to benefit the latter’s advantage, has previously raised tensions with the United States. Last year, the kingdom’s decision to coordinate oil production cuts with OPEC Plus, a group that includes Russia, sparked displeasure from the?White House. This move helped prevent a decline in oil prices, safeguarding Russian oil revenue, which ran contrary to US efforts to undercut Russia’s position, which is key to funding its aggression in Ukraine.
Despite their historically strong relationship, signs of strain have now surfaced between Russia and Saudi Arabia. Reports indicate that Russia has been surpassing its agreed-upon oil production levels, causing frustration and discontent among the Saudis.?
For the past six years, the leaders of both countries collaborated closely to exert control over the global oil market. The Saudi-Russian oil alliance revolved around the shared objectives of bolstering oil prices and maximizing export revenue. But the situation changed dramatically with Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. The war has shifted the dynamics of their relationship as Russia now appears more willing to accept lower oil prices to increase its oil sales, especially to major consumers like China and India. The additional revenue is crucial to Russia’s ability to fund its ongoing war efforts. This will only likely lead to further strain in the future between both countries.
Saudi Arabia and Russia have also been on opposing sides in the Syrian civil war. In 2015, the Saudis urged Russia’s ally, Iran, to agree to the removal of President Bashar Assad as a condition for any resolution to the conflict in Syria. However, as time passed, the reality set in that flipping Syria away from Iran’s influence was an unrealistic goal.
In a shift towards pragmatism, Saudi Arabia and other nations came to accept the limitations of their influence in Syria. Instead of pushing for regime change, the Saudis pursued a more pragmatic approach.?
This culminated in the surprising appearance of Assad at the Arab League summit in May 2023. This marked the end of a concerted effort to block the reintegration of the Syrian dictator and his country back into the political sphere of the Middle East. Saudi Arabia’s growing engagement with Iran likely lessens the worry about needing to be on friendlier terms with Russia for stability in the region.
The kingdom has traditionally been cautious in balancing its ties with Russia, given their shared oil interests. However, recent developments have propelled Saudi Arabia to expand its relationships beyond the Middle East, with China being its largest trading partner and even restoring relations with Iran – an agreement brokered by China.
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Saudi Arabia’s increasing role in Ukrainian affairs indicates a broader trend of countries in the Middle East seeking to diversify their alliances. The region’s states have realized the importance of not solely relying on one dominant partner, such as the US. As a result, they are attempting to secure diverse alliances, even with China, as a counterbalance in their dealings with Washington.
Moreover, Saudi Arabia’s involvement in hosting peace talks and facilitating prisoner exchanges between Russia and Ukraine is showcasing its desire to extend its diplomatic reach beyond traditional roles. The kingdom is positioning itself as a mediator and convening power, not just a back channel dialogue facilitator. The peace talks, even if slanted in Ukraine’s favor, present a favorable stage for Saudi Arabia’s continued growth as a diplomatic powerhouse.
No matter the outcome, Saudi Arabia has emerged as a winner from this summit, showing that in the long term it will continue to strengthen ties with Ukraine and the West.?
It is Ukraine, after all, that is fighting to protect the Western world and the global order that has kept the world safe since WWII.
The writer is a freelance journalist and an editor at Euromaidan Press. His writing has been featured in the Atlantic Council, Center for European Policy Analysis, Harvard Ukrainian Research Institute, Politico, The National Interest, and the Wilson Center, among other places.
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Mawani, Dutch Port of Rotterdam ink agreement to develop smart ports, human capabilities
RIYADH: Saudi ports are on track to equip the workforce with the relevant skills and technology to solve internal and external challenges while facilitating the efficient movement of goods, delivery of services and smooth flow of information thanks to a new agreement.??
The Saudi Ports Authority, known as Mawani, has signed a partnership agreement with the Dutch Port of Rotterdam aimed at enhancing cooperation in developing smart ports and human capabilities while exchanging experiences and knowledge, according to a statement.??
The agreement aligns with Mawani’s efforts to bolster the competitiveness of Saudi ports globally in cooperation with the National Competitiveness Center.??
It also aligns well with the authority’s attempts to support and further enable the maritime transport sector, the ports and the logistics services.????
Under the terms of the agreement, both parties will work together to foster digital transformation toward smart ports.?
They will collaborate with the marine environment agenda and the green ports initiative to develop the operational and logistical performance in Saudi ports.?
The newly signed partnership is also expected to contribute to maximizing the values of complementary work between Mawani and the Port of Rotterdam, which increases the optimal investment of the strategic location occupied by Saudi ports and its capabilities.??
In addition, the agreement also sees Mawani benefiting from the operational expertise of the Port of Rotterdam regarding managing ports, developing their business and planning their strategies.??
Earlier this month, Mawani announced adding 20 new shipping services in the first half of 2023 in a bid to boost supply chains and consolidate its position as a global logistics center.?
At the time, the Saudi Press agency reported that the authority added these new shipping services across Jeddah Islamic Port, King Abdulaziz Port in Dammam and Jubail Commercial Port to link the Kingdom with other global ports while facilitating trade and export.?
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BRICS swings big with invitation of Middle East countries - analysis
The Middle East has become more important in recent years, not less important, and BRICS acknowledges this.
By?SETH J. FRANTZMAN?Published:?AUGUST 24, 2023
The BRICS economic group which includes many large countries such as China and India, is seeking to expand into the Middle East by?inviting the UAE, Egypt, Iran, and Saudi Arabia?to join. This is a major outcome of the recent BRICS meeting in South Africa where the current members; Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa met.
BRICS is important because it’s a non-western economic grouping. In a world where Russia and China are increasingly at odds with the West, any meetings where Russia and China are present with a series of other countries has potential to undermine the West and the US-led world order which was established at the end of the Cold War.
Many countries such as Iran have been seeking to play a larger role in work with Russia and China in recent years; and also in outreach to India. Iran, for instance, seeks to play a role in the SCO and CICA, other groups of countries that include China or Central Asian states. Iran joined the SCO this year.
More countries see BRICS as a rising force
BRICS began by including major large countries from various continents, such as Brazil from the Americas and South Africa from Africa. India dominates South Asia and China and Russia are obvious members as well. However, the new drive by almost two dozen countries to join shows how they sense that BRICS is a rising group and they want to pursue an independent policy away from the West, or at least in complementary fashion to the Western dominated world order. The West, for instance, dominates groups like the G7.
Now?BRICS has decided?to invite Iran, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Argentina, Egypt, and Ethiopia to join. Clearly there is a bias here towards Middle East countries. The UAE and Egypt are important in terms of Israel’s role because they have peace with Israel. Saudi Arabia is a leader in the region and also important in the Gulf and globally. The decision to invite Argentina and Ethiopia creates new opportunities for BRICS in Africa and South America. But the real story here is the growth in influence in Middle East states. Saudi Arabia, for instance has hosted recent meetings with China. Riyadh also recently hosted Iran’s foreign minister and China has supported Iran in recent conversations with Iran’s foreign minister as well.
Saudi Arabia and the UAE are close partners of the West. Iran is openly a destabilizing force in the Middle East and has worked to become closer to China and Russia. Iran exports armed drones to Russia and seeks to build on a new 25-year deal with China. As such the Iranian membership of BRICS and other groups with China and Russia can lead to coordination between these states and this has major ramifications for the future world order. As these countries grow closer Iran’s defense industries could be boosted, for instance. This is important as Iran seeks to develop its missile and drone programs and export more weapons. Iran unveiled a new long range armed drone, the Mohajer 10, this week, for instance.
What happens next as?Saudi, Iran, and others?join BRICS is something that time will tell. This is an important economic group and the way it and groups like the SCO are doing outreach will shift global economic priorities and potentially create a balance in terms of how the West has dominated the world order. China and Russia would like to unseat the West and challenge the US. Countries like India are partners of the West but, like Saudi Arabia, they have their own independent policies and want to play a role in various forums.
Now more countries that are clearly partners of the West, such as the UAE and Saudi Arabia and Egypt, will be playing a larger role at BRICS. This will change the Middle East and clearly put the region on the map. BRICS is swinging big with its decision to invite so many Middle East countries to join. This also shows that analysts who believed the Middle East would be less important in the future and that the US should shift focus to Russia or China, are ignoring how important the Middle East is to China, Russia, India, and others.
The Middle East has become more important in recent years, not less important, and BRICS acknowledges this; while some western countries have apparently missed the boat in seeing the region as one that is declining in importance.??
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Prigoschins Ende hat seine Tücken für Putins Herrschaft
Um den t?dlichen Absturz des Truppenführers ranken sich schon jetzt viele Gerüchte. Der Kreml ist mit dessen Ableben eine unbequeme Figur losgeworden. Allzu sicher darf sich der Pr?sident aber nicht fühlen.
Der mutmassliche Tod des Unternehmers, zeitweiligen Meuterers und popul?ren Kriegsfürsten Jewgeni Prigoschin beim Absturz seines Privatflugzeugs zwischen Moskau und St.?Petersburg hat weitherum Aufregung ausgel?st. In den staatlich kontrollierten russischen Medien ist das Ereignis jedoch h?chstens eine Randnotiz. Es wird behandelt wie ein gew?hnliches, kleineres Flugzeugunglück; der Name Prigoschin taucht beil?ufig auf, und im Fernsehen wird darüber weitgehend geschwiegen.
Ein Strafverfahren wurde wegen Verstosses gegen Sicherheitsregeln im Flugverkehr eingeleitet – ebenfalls ein nach Normalfall klingender Vorgang. Für einen Anschlag gebe es keine Anhaltspunkte, hiess es von offizieller Seite. Pr?sident Wladimir Putin, der zum Zeitpunkt des Absturzes in Kursk Heldenauszeichnungen verliehen hatte, ?usserte sich erst am Donnerstagabend dazu.
Er würdigte Prigoschin als einen talentierten Gesch?ftsmann mit einem schwierigen Schicksal, der sich schwere Fehler habe zuschulden kommen lassen. Er habe aber für die ?gemeinsame Sache? wie auch pers?nlich Erfolge erzielt. Putin dankte ihm und der Privatarmee Wagner für deren Einsatz im gemeinsamen Kampf gegen das ?neonazistische Regime? in der Ukraine. Das werde Russland nie vergessen. Putin versprach eine vollst?ndige Aufkl?rung des Flugzeugunglücks, wie er es bezeichnete.
Spekulationen über den Flugzeugabsturz
Eine weitere Best?tigung von Prigoschins Tod gab es vorl?ufig nicht. Informell hiess es in verschiedenen Telegram-Kan?len, die Leichen des Milit?runternehmers und seines Kumpanen Dmitri Utkin seien in der Leichenhalle des staatlichen Ermittlungskomitees von Twer identifiziert worden. Das sei wegen der schweren Versehrungen durch den Brand des Flugzeugs nur anhand weniger Merkmale m?glich gewesen: bei Prigoschin anhand dessen teilamputierten Fingers an der linken Hand, bei Utkin anhand dessen Tattoos (mit Nazi-Symbolen). Eine DNA-Probe wurde ebenfalls genommen. Prigoschin und Utkin waren als ?Helden Russlands? ausgezeichnet worden. Solchen steht eigentlich ein besonders ehrenvolles Begr?bnis zu.
Als indirekte Best?tigung für Prigoschins Ableben sind die Reaktionen aus dem Kreis der Wagner-Angeh?rigen zu werten, die in den sozialen Netzwerken offen über den Verlust ihres Anführers trauern. Am Mittwochabend waren die Fenster im Petersburger Hauptquartier von Wagner zu einem Kreuz erleuchtet. Menschen brachten dort, aber auch in anderen russischen St?dten Blumen und Kerzen vorbei. Einer der wichtigsten Wagner-nahen Telegram-Kan?le machte ?Verr?ter? für den Tod verantwortlich und schwor Rache.
Angesichts fehlender neuer Erkenntnisse über die Unglücksursache schiessen die Spekulationen ins Kraut. Der Abschuss mittels Flugabwehr wird als eine Version gehandelt. Als nicht weniger wahrscheinlich gilt ein Sprengsatz an Bord. Noch immer geistert auch die konspirologische Version einer Inszenierung herum. Prigoschin, der über zahlreiche P?sse verfügte, sich gerne verkleidete und von dem es 2019 schon einmal geheissen hatte, er sei mit dem Flugzeug abgestürzt, bietet sich für Verschw?rungstheorien an. Das dürfte den Beh?rden zupasskommen. Sie werden von der offensichtlichsten Variante ablenken wollen, bei der das Regime die F?den gezogen hat.
Trauer im Umfeld von Wagner
Der von offizieller Seite vorgespielte Courant normal kann nicht darüber hinwegt?uschen, dass Prigoschins Tod und dessen Umst?nde von einiger Tragweite für Russland sind. Bis zu seinem Aufstandsversuch vor zwei Monaten dürften viele Russen, die sich nur über das Staatsfernsehen informieren, von dem Mann wenig geh?rt haben. Aber bei einem nicht geringen Teil des Publikums in den Telegram-Kan?len und sozialen Netzwerken sowie vor allem bei den Angeh?rigen der Wagner-K?mpfer genoss er Heldenstatus.
In deren Chatgruppen herrscht nun Bestürzung. Wer angesichts der vielen tausend jungen Soldaten, die Prigoschin in den Feuerhagel der Front geschickt hatte, die Trauer um ihn zu hinterfragen wagte, wurde brüsk angegangen. ?Meiner ging freiwillig, für die Freiheit?, schrieb eine Frau, deren Mann sich offensichtlich im Straflager hatte anwerben lassen, in der Hoffnung, den Fronteinsatz zu überleben und begnadigt zu werden.
Wagner-K?mpfer als St?rpotenzial
Die Gewalt, die Russlands Krieg in die Gesellschaft zurückspielen wird, wird auch von der Unerbittlichkeit der Wagner-Truppen, deren Todeskult und Brutalit?t gepr?gt sein. Dass ehemalige oder aktive Wagner-K?mpfer, die eine verschworene Gemeinschaft bilden, zur Bedrohung für die innere Sicherheit werden k?nnten, war immer schon ein Argument des Inlandgeheimdiensts FSB, der Prigoschin nicht zu viel Einfluss zugestehen wollte.
Die jetzt teilweise in Weissrussland stationierten Wagner-Einheiten werden sich kaum aus Protest gegen die Staatsmacht auflehnen. Aber die Polizei soll Angeh?rige von Wagner-K?mpfern über deren m?gliche Aufstandsabsichten befragt haben – ein Hinweis auf das St?rpotenzial, das der Sicherheitsapparat ihnen zutraut.
Angesichts des Versagens des Verteidigungsministers und der wichtigsten Gener?le auf dem Schlachtfeld hatten sich auch manche radikale Milit?rkorrespondenten Prigoschin an die Brust geworfen und dessen ?tzende Kritik an der regul?ren Armee – und damit indirekt an Putin – geteilt. Das k?nnte ihnen noch zum Verh?ngnis werden. Ein warnendes Beispiel ist der nationalistische Propagandist und frühere Geheimdienstmann?Igor Girkin alias Strelkow, der seit Juli?wegen seiner bissigen Kommentare in Untersuchungshaft sitzt.
Versch?rfung der Spannungen
Ein R?tsel bleibt, was Prigoschin dazu veranlasste, weiterhin bedenkenlos in Russland herumzureisen. Dass ihn Putin im Juni nach der beispiellosen Herausforderung einfach hatte ziehen lassen und kurz darauf sogar im Kreml empfing, muss ihn in Sicherheit gewiegt haben. Niemand weiss, was zwischen ihm, dem weissrussischen Pr?sidenten Lukaschenko, der als Vermittler aufgetreten war, und Putin genau vereinbart worden war. Klar ist nur, dass sich Prigoschin entgegen den damaligen Ankündigungen nicht mit Exil in Weissrussland oder den Auftr?gen in Afrika begnügte. Vermutlich kostete ihn seine Unvorsichtigkeit das Leben.
Mehrere oppositionell eingestellte russische Kommentatoren schlossen daraus, dass sich der Charakter eines potenziellen künftigen Machtkampfs ?ndern werde: Halbe Sachen mit Vereinbarungen werde es keine mehr geben. Die Politologin Jekaterina Schulman wies die Interpretation zurück, Putin habe mit der Ausschaltung Prigoschins allen seine St?rke gezeigt. Wer sich nur auf diese Weise durchsetzen k?nne, zeige schon, wie gross die Probleme seien. Der Abschreckungseffekt gegenüber der Elite wirke nur für kurze Zeit, ist Schulman überzeugt. Wenn das Regime nicht einmal mehr Justizverfahren wie im Fall des Oppositionspolitikers Alexei Nawalny vorspiele, sondern zu solchen Mitteln greife, führe das zu einem Krieg aller gegen alle.
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