Mistaken Confirmations

When was the last time you decided to take a good hard look at the biases you have? The last time you acknowledged that you are biased towards a particular product based on your belief/feelings rather than the facts at hand? The last time you didn't blindly agree to a point of view just because it was espoused by a person you respect?

If you haven't done any of these recently or frequently then this post is for you. This is closely related to what I've written earlier about painting your own demons. I'm talking about myside bias better known as Confirmation Bias. Wikipedia defines Confirmation Bias as the tendency to search for, interpret, favor, and recall information in a way that confirms one's preexisting beliefs or hypotheses.

When an honest man discovers he’s mistaken, he will either cease being mistaken or cease being honest - Anonymous

I've had several discussions regarding this with my colleagues, friends and even family. One of my most common observations has been that while almost everyone accepts that this bias exists, very few accept that they themselves are biased to some extent too.

Let me be clear on one thing. It's impossible to be completely neutral about anything that one already knows about. I feel that this has to do with how the human brain processes information. Because the human brain is constantly on the lookout for threats (more on that in future posts), there is inherent bias on how it processes information. But one CAN look for telltale signs that they are subconsciously being influenced by this bias.

So how does one know if they are biased? Knowing the different types is generally a good way to start. Confirmation Bias manifests itself primarily in one of the following forms

• Biased Search for Information
• Biased Interpretation
• Biased Memory

Let's talk about all of these in a little bit more detail.

Biased Search for Information

If a person already has an opinion on an issue, it is extremely likely that they would search for information that confirms their opinion.

Biased Search for Information manifests from a desire to be always right

If one is the kind of person who believes they are always right then this is the bias they should be on the look out for.

For example, when trying to know more details about a political issue, one tends to rely on information sources (print, media, websites etc.,) that support their own political inclinations (Left, Liberal, Right etc). Even if the other side has facts to back up an opposing argument, one tends to gloss over or dismiss such facts as unimportant.

Another example would be in our day-to-day lives, when it comes to forming opinions about individuals, one tends to search for information that reinforces their initial impressions (whether good or bad) rather than seek out alternate view points. Over time this may lead one to dismiss all the faults of a person (initial good impression) or lead one to believe there is nothing good about a person (initial bad impression).

Biased Interpretation

When one has an even stronger opinion about an issue, then they start to interpret information according to their biases. The same information can lead to two opposing views when interpreted by people belonging to two opposing ideologies.

An example would be the recent spate of school shootings in the United States. While gun control proponents say that the increase in such shootings justifies bringing stricter legislation on gun ownership, the opposing camp feels that the increase in shootings could have been avoided if the teachers were armed and trained to deal with such threats.

A workplace example that I heard was about a friend's friend who received a bad appraisal once. This was despite the fact that he was known to be a hard worker who would spend a lot more time in office after work learning new skills and applying them to his work. This was wrongly interpreted by his manager as taking more time than necessary to finish the work allocated to him. Needless to say, the manager's impression of him had not been good that caused him to interpret facts (staying back after work) according to his bias.

Another example was from a leader in my previous organisation who told us a story of how they fixed a bug in development that they inherited from the previous contractor some months ago. Fixing that bug halved the processing time and was proudly presented to the client's manager who, instead of appreciating the fix, went ballistic as to why they had not fixed the bug earlier. Here again we can see how a poor relationship between the client manager and the delivery team could lead even good news to be interpreted negatively.

Biased Memory

When recollecting facts, one has a tendency to remember only those that support one's point of view at the time of recollection. This makes it tricky as a person's perspective may change through time. It's also important to note that the emotions that the person is feeling at the time of recollection also play a vital role in this.

With the recent information deluge that we are facing, this kind of bias takes prominence as it deals with the biased filters that get applied on our memory. For example one tends to recollect information that support their political standpoint even if we also know information that points to other inferences. There's also the case where one's beliefs persist even when the initial evidence that led to those beliefs had been eventually been discredited.

This is the case of the anti-vaccination movement which came into prominence in 1998. A fraudulent research paper in the same year by Andrew Wakefield caused a major stir when it linked the MMR vaccine to autism. An investigation found that the author of the paper had manipulated evidence and was fully retracted in 2010. Yet to this day, many people whose beliefs were moulded by this paper find vaccination to be dangerous and protest against it being made mandatory by governments.

In the workplace, people, especially those in leadership roles, often have to evaluate the performance of others. Depending on the rapport they have with a person, one may selectively remember facts that reinforce their impression of them over facts that contradict.

Overcoming Confirmation Bias

It's impossible to be truly neutral.

As I've mentioned earlier, it is impossible to be neutral about anything that one already knows about. Having said that there are some steps one can take to avoid the pitfalls of this bias.

• Try to look for other sources of information rather than the ones that support your favoured perspective. While going through such information, do it with an open mind. Be a devil's advocate. Try to find facts that go against your stance. Then see if your perspective still stands. More often than not, you might end up with a condition called cognitive dissonance (more on that in future posts).
• When trying to interpret facts, try to see how your narrative would change if seen from another stance. How would someone who disagrees with your stance construe the same facts? Would their narrative differ and, if yes, by how much? Try to see why their narrative differs from yours and then think if your stance is truly objective.

Even if one's memory is infallible, no one's memory is incorruptible.

• Biased recollections are trickier since you would not remember about facts other than those that support your perspective. Despite the bliss that ignorance is, try to collect information that challenges your perspective so that you don't end up relying completely on your memory. Even if one's memory is infallible, we now have enough evidence to suggest that no one's memory is incorruptible.

There's a good chance that you are seeing a common theme in my advice. Looking for information that doesn't conform to your beliefs is the best way to combat Confirmation Bias. In the words of Paul Saffo

Have strong opinions which are weakly held - Paul Saffo

Any opinion that one might have should be strong yet at the same time weakly held. So that the opinion can be discarded if any evidence appears to the contrary.

So what do you think? I'd love to hear your thoughts and experiences regarding this.

Cartoon 1 Source: https://chainsawsuit.com/comic/2014/09/16/on-research/

Cartoon 2 Source: https://www.timesfreepress.com/news/opinion/cartoons/story/2012/dec/18/clay-bennett-sandy-hook-cartoon-guns-shooting/95181/