The Missed Obvious: How Project Management Institutions Overlooked Fundamental Change
Dr. Josh Ramirez, NPPQ, PMP
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Introduction
For decades, popular project management institutions have relied on rigid, mechanistic approaches to managing projects. These models, built on anecdotal evidence and outdated methodologies, have long dominated the field. However, new evidence from cognitive science, behavioral research, and neuroscience suggests that a more adaptive, human-centered approach would lead to far greater success. The following examples from history demonstrate how obvious breakthroughs were often missed due to ingrained thinking and habitual practices. In the same way, today’s project management organizations have overlooked foundational innovations that could revolutionize how projects are managed, focusing instead on incremental improvements (5th and 6th order innovations) that fail to address the underlying need for a paradigm shift.
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Germ Theory
For centuries, doctors believed diseases were caused by "bad air." The simple idea that germs cause illness took decades to accept because the medical community was stuck in outdated beliefs. The solution was always there, but no one saw it.
Popular project management institutions are so entrenched in old methods that they’ve missed the clear, fundamental changes that could improve the way projects are managed.
Plate Tectonics
Despite evidence like matching fossils across oceans, the idea that continents move was ignored until the 1960s. People were too focused on what they thought they knew to see the obvious truth.
In project management, the clear advantage of understanding human behavior and using data-driven scientific principles has been overlooked due to a focus on outdated practices.
Heliocentrism (Sun-Centered Solar System)
For centuries, it was believed that the Earth was the center of the universe. The simple truth—that the Earth revolves around the Sun—was resisted because people were stuck in their old ways of thinking.
Like this, popular project management institutions are locked into rigid, mechanistic methods. They’ve missed the obvious breakthrough that a more adaptive, scientifically-informed approach could offer.
Evolution by Natural Selection
The fact that species change over time was known, but Darwin’s theory of natural selection—though simple—took years to be accepted because people were fixated on traditional ideas.
A shift toward understanding project management through evidence-based insights has been missed by popular institutions, which are clinging to outdated, anecdotal models.
Electric Cars
Electric cars have existed since the 1800s, but the focus on improving gasoline engines meant the benefits of electric vehicles were overlooked for over a century. The solution was obvious, but old thinking dominated.
Similarly, while organizations focus on refining old project management methods, the future—grounded in behavioral and science-driven insights—remains overlooked.
Behavioral Economics
Traditional economics assumed people made rational decisions to maximize benefits. Behavioral Economics flipped this upside down, showing that people often act irrationally, influenced by biases. It completely transformed the field and reshaped how we understand decision-making in markets.
The Lesson: Just as Behavioral Economics revolutionized traditional economics, a more evidence-based and human-centered approach to project management is set to transform how projects are run, even though it's been hiding in plain sight.
The Cognitive Science Behind Missing the Obvious
Popular project management institutions have fallen into habituation, the brain’s tendency to ignore repetitive stimuli. Leaders have become so accustomed to old practices that they no longer question them. This is reinforced by cognitive inertia, the reluctance to change thought patterns even when evidence suggests newer models could be more effective.
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Neuroscience shows that the default mode network (DMN) supports habitual thinking, reinforcing established routines and making it hard to recognize innovative but simple solutions. Project leaders are often stuck in these routines, unable to spot the benefits of newer, more adaptive methods (Raichle, 2015).
This issue is amplified by confirmation bias—the tendency to seek out information that confirms existing beliefs. Leaders who are deeply invested in old, anecdote-based systems are naturally inclined to dismiss new, evidence-based approaches, even when backed by strong data (Nickerson, 1998).
Organizational Theory and Habituation
From an organizational perspective, institutional theory explains how routines and norms become embedded over time. Popular project management methodologies are hard to break because organizations build their success and identity around them. Shifting away from these established practices challenges the status quo and creates structural inertia, making change difficult even when necessary (Scott, 2008).
Path dependency also plays a role—past decisions create a self-reinforcing cycle. Once an organization commits to a particular methodology, it becomes increasingly challenging to shift course, even when a new, more efficient approach becomes available (Sydow, Schrey?gg, & Koch, 2009).
As a result, popular project management institutions tend to focus on fine-tuning their outdated systems, working on incremental innovations rather than embracing the more transformative, first-order changes that are needed.
The Final Point
Popular project management institutions have become so entrenched in traditional methods that they can no longer see the forest for the trees. Research in neuroscience, cognitive biases like confirmation bias, and organizational theories like structural inertia explain why they’ve missed the clear, first-order innovations in how projects can be managed. These organizations are stuck perfecting the old (incremental improvements) and have completely missed the more transformative breakthroughs right in front of them. Now that these opportunities are in focus, the real work begins to shift attention back to these foundational changes.
References
Nickerson, R. S. (1998). Confirmation bias: A ubiquitous phenomenon in many guises. Review of General Psychology, 2(2), 175-220. https://doi.org/10.1037/1089-2680.2.2.175
Raichle, M. E. (2015). The brain's default mode network. Annual Review of Neuroscience, 38, 433-447. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-neuro-071013-014030
Scott, W. R. (2008). Institutions and organizations: Ideas and interests. SAGE Publications.
Sydow, J., Schrey?gg, G., & Koch, J. (2009). Organizational path dependence: Opening the black box. Academy of Management Review, 34(4), 689-709. https://doi.org/10.5465/amr.34.4.zok689
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Author Bio
Dr. Josh Ramirez, NPPQ, PMP, is CEO at the Institute for Neuro & Behavioral Project Management , which he founded with Dr. Jodi Bull Wilson . His experience includes work at numerous DOE sites and national labs, including Hanford, LBNL, PNNL, and Los Alamos, and he also teaches project management at Columbia Basin College. He has written best practices for the DOE Energy Facility Contractors Group (EFCOG) that focus on blending cognitive and behavioral science with project management, and is co-author of NeuralPlan with Dr. Shari De Baets . Josh’s doctoral research focused on designing project management with behavioral science.
MSc, CFPS, NPPQ
1 个月I loved this post! Congrats and thanks!
NPPQ & PM Methodology Advocate | Strategic Project Execution Specialist | Bridging GovCon & Business Challenges with Innovative Solutions | Principal Guide at Guided Path Consulting
2 个月In the story about the monkeys and the banana, the monkeys stop trying to get the banana because they don't want to get sprayed with water. Even when new monkeys come in, they avoid the banana too, simply because that's what everyone else does. This behavior is like a cognitive bias, where people stick to old ways without questioning them. For project managers, being aware of these biases is crucial because it helps them notice when they're making decisions based on habit rather than logic. Understanding these biases can lead to better teamwork and smarter choices. This awareness is like a new shift in project management, helping teams to be more open to new ideas and approaches. By recognizing and overcoming these biases, project managers can encourage fresh ideas and find better solutions, just like if the monkeys learned to question why they avoid the banana. This leads to more successful projects and happier teams! Thanks for the post.
Retired Project Manager for the Process Industries
2 个月A lot of fluff.
Bringing neuroscience to projects and business transformation ??Project Troubleshooter?? Coach?? Author ??Speaker??
2 个月Being a pioneer is both a blessing & a curse! It's good to see the historical perspective even if it's preaching to the converted. The question for us is this: How do we find the pockets of brain based practise in these institutions & amplify them so the potential and logic becomes irresistible?
Great post Josh, thanks so much. Neuroscience validates what you said. Change can generate stress, triggering the release of cortisol, which inhibits higher cognitive functions like critical and creative thinking. The brain’s reward system, driven by dopamine, is more active during familiar and predictable activities. This maintains the status quo, which, while not competitive, is at least not negative. Venturing "beyond the Pillars of Hercules" creates mental discomfort if one isn’t cognitively prepared for new journeys. Neural connections reinforced by habits tend to consolidate over time, making it harder to “disconnect” old mental patterns (pruning) and create new ones (synaptogenesis), especially for practices entrenched over the years. In response to Bill, we can't say what we've "missed" because we are the ones creating the future. Living on the same floor of a building, we can't see what would open up if we moved to the top floor of the tallest skyscraper. Only by ascending can we invent new things. Like steering a speedboat, we carve our own path through the water, which quickly closes behind us. Not only does it lose importance, but it vanishes as we move forward: we are the ones creating new roads.