Missed goals: 5 Premier League teams failing their xG expectations

At the time of writing, we have reached the second international break of the 2024/25 Premier League season. At this point, with 7 games played in the season, the table is beginning to take shape, and we are starting to have enough of a sample size in order to begin to judge the performances of the teams to this point. When using data in any part of football, the golden rule is that the greater the sample size, the greater the validity of the data. This is why it's crucial that we now have 7 matches with 630 minutes played at a minimum, and we are starting to see clear trends. This is when using data can be so important, as we can start to drill down on team and player performances in order to fully start to understand which teams are performing to expectations and which may be falling short of those expectations.

Sportmonks carries advanced expected goals data, which can be viewed as an aggregate of team performance or when broken down to variables such as open play xG, xG on target, xG from corners, non penalty xG, xG from set plays, xG difference, xG prevented, and xG against. In breaking down xG in this manner, we offer you the opportunity to break football down into granular data and to start to fully understand the intricacies of the game. For the purpose of this article, we want to understand which 5 Premier League clubs are underperforming the most when considering their actual goal output based on their xG data.

The list of the top 5 clubs who are underperforming their xG includes one giant of the game, whose manager is currently under significant pressure, one newly promoted team, and one who is performing against expectation towards the top end of the Premier League table so far this season.

1. Bournemouth ??

At the time of writing, Bournemouth have generated an xG per 90 of 1.95, while they are only scoring at a rate of 1.14 per 90. This gives them an underperformance of 0.81 per 90. This is especially interesting as Bournemouth are actually sitting third in terms of their ranking for xG per 90, but due to the difference in their expected and actual output, they actually currently sit 13th in the Premier League table.

Under their Spanish coach Andoni Iraola, we have seen Bournemouth play for the most part in a 4-2-3-1 system, and having sold their star striker Dominic Solanke to Spurs in the summer for a reported ￡64M, they are perhaps missing a focal point striker to convert the chances that they are creating.

Indeed, at the moment Bournemouth are actually generating a relatively high volume of shots, and this is leading them to generate a higher value of xG. Their shots, however, are perhaps not high value in terms of their shot locations, and as such, their conversion rate is not quite what we might have expected. This is despite their investing in a striker in the form of Evanilson of Porto. Given the underlying attacking data, however, we are confident that Bournemouth will improve in front of goal, and we think that they will climb the table as their goal output rises to meet their xG.

2. Manchester United ??

Manchester United are in trouble. So far this season they are generating an xG per 90 of 1.37 and they are scoring at a rate of 0.71, giving them an xG underperformance of 0.66. While Bournemouth’s xG underperformance is, of course, higher, they are also generating more xG per 90, suggesting that they are at least performing better in the attacking phase. If we rank the teams in the Premier League based on xG per 90, then Manchester United rank just 13th in the table. In terms of their actual league performance, they are 14th, one place behind Bournemouth.

Given the decision to back their Dutch coach Erik ten Hag in the summer and the transfer business and spending that we saw from the club, it is far to say that the United board, and indeed their fans, expected better from the team this season.

The biggest issue that we are seeing from Manchester United this season is that they are not generating enough shooting opportunities in general. They are not generating chances through counterattacks and transitions, and most of their attacks are relatively slow and positional. Given that this allows the opposition to get into more settled defensive structures, it is then harder for United to find ways to break them down.

For United’s underlying attacking data and goalscoring in general to improve, we need to see a more varied and more nuanced approach in the way that they are attacking.

3. Southampton ????

The third team in our ranking are the only newly promoted side to appear, as Southampton, promoted after winning the playoffs last season, are struggling so far this season in front of goal. At the time of writing, Southampton have an xG per 90 of 1.22, but they are only scoring at a rate of 0.57, giving them an xG underperformance of 0.65. Given that Southampton are only ranking 16th in terms of their xG per 90 and 19th in terms of their actual league position, there is a clear need to improve in front of goal.

The Southampton coach, Russell Martin, has stuck to his footballing philosophy coming into this season, and they are very positional and possession-based, with a large volume of passes taking place in their own defensive third as they look to play through and out.?

The attacking issues that Southampton are currently facing are clear to see, as they are struggling to create any real scoring opportunities from open play, with most of their xG at the moment being generated from set pieces. They need to find a way to play in the opposition half and to find a way of generating meaningful shooting and scoring opportunities if they hope to improve and stay up.

4. Fulham ????

Next on our list is Fulham, with the London side generating an xG per 90 of 2.04 and a goal per 90 output of 1.14, giving them an underperformance of 0.90. This is especially interesting because Fulham are actually the best performing side in the league in terms of xG per 90, and although they are sitting 8th in the league, they are still only 3 points away from the top 4.

This season we have seen their Portuguese coach Marcos Silva play in a 4-2-3-1 system, and they are well drilled and coached in this system.

Interestingly, the majority of their goal scoring chances appear to come from transitional and counterattacking attacks. Fulham are extremely quick at getting into goal-scoring areas after they win the ball back deep inside their half. If they are able to convert some of the chances that they are converting, then there is no question that they could become the biggest surprise in the league this season in terms of challenging for a European spot.

5. Crystal Palace ??

The final team in our ranking is another London club, Crystal Palace. They are generating an xG per 90 of 1.29, and they are scoring at a rate of 0.71 goals per 90. This means that their underperformance is at 0.58, and at the time of writing, they are sitting 18th in the Premier League.

Expectations at Palace were actually quite high going into this season, as they had impressed under their coach Oliver Glasner towards the end of last season. The decision to sell and not properly replace the French international attacker Michael Olise, however, seems to have affected the performances of Palace so far this season, and they are struggling to create anything meaningful going forward.

They are not creating through counterattacking and transitional chances or through positional and possession-based play, and at the moment they look like a side that is devoid of ideas. Something significant needs to shift for Palace in order for them to start performing towards the top of the table.

Conclusion

By comparing xG per 90 to actual goal output across the Premier League, it is easy to start picking out interesting narratives and storylines. There are a number of clubs who are underperforming or overperforming their xG for a variety of reasons, but as the season progresses, those clubs should settle into a more settled and consistent performance level.

This article was written in collaboration with Total Football Analysis. Total Football Analysis is a market-leading football consultancy, providing intelligent football fans, clubs, and agents with more than a match report. They use data, intelligence, and tactical knowledge and understanding to help better decisions be reached, therefore helping their readers and clients both understand football better and win more matches.