Mispricing Risk
Bruce Angeli
Vice President, PBS News Hour Corporate Marketing, Principal Bruce C. Angeli LLC, Accredited Investor
I don't know if or why the Fed will cut its federal funds rate next week. However, if the economy is as strong as most politicians and the media claim, then there is no need for a rate cut. I like Chair Powell, but I don't feel he's immune to political pressure. Despite its constitutional independence I feel it's this political pressure (done so by presidents of both parties) that's currently driving any Fed decision, irrespective of 'data points'. Candidly, I believe that while executive and legislative policy may be one aspect of an ascending GDP, I believe the more germane reason is the mispricing of risk. Investors simply cannot get a normalized return in the bond market, hence, shifting equity to the stock market, the former and latter being totally out of alignment given the current risk-reward ratio. Additionally, the growth in Federal debt is seemingly a non-issue at low interest rates, but historically this will not last. The Bloomberg article clarifies many of these points: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-07-23/a-decade-of-low-interest-rates-is-changing-everything?srnd=premium