Misinformation, Disinformation, the Exploitation of Social Media – Is Cognitive Warfare Turning Our Minds into a Battleground?

Warfare is changing. In an era where geopolitical tensions and multifaceted hybrid warfare have changed conventional warfare forever, are we now seeing a potential new battleground emerging in the human mind? Through technological advancement and our ever-increasing reliability on technology, are we now seeing a deliberate strategy from foreign states to attempt to influence human cognition?

Consider, over the last decade, the incidents of alleged election interference, social media campaigns shaping narratives to influence public opinion, exploitation of imagery with AI to create scandal, fake accounts, trolls and bot farms generating hundreds of thousands of posts across social media platforms, deepfake videos and imagery, microtargeting by the likes of Cambridge Analytica, the list goes on and on. Frequently described as disinformation, misinformation and influence campaigns, these tactics have all been components of a wider hybrid strategy - cognitive warfare.

All sound a bit Tom Clancy or Hollywood? NATO clearly doesn’t think so. It has been very public in identifying the threat from cognitive warfare and the clear intention of its adversaries to undermine public trust and confidence, by spreading disinformation and misinformation. To counter this threat, NATO’s Allied Command Transformation has been developing the ‘Cognitive Warfare Concept’. This concept has received direct contribution and engagement from over 20 NATO member countries, along with academics and industry experts, in order to ensure that NATO gets on the front foot with this evolving threat. NATO’s Cognitive Warfare Concept is multifaceted. Firstly, it seeks to inform member nations about how its adversaries intend to manipulate public opinion and individual decision making; all while attempting to fracture social cohesion, with the intention of ultimately weakening a nations stability and security. Secondly, NATO is planning how it can enhance its resilience to this type of warfare and develop its own capabilities in mitigating this evolving risk. This includes protecting current decision-making processes from manipulation, as well as finding ways to strengthen public trust and opinion. A momentous challenge in the face of decades of alleged election interference, social media manipulation, misinformation campaigns and mainstream media influence.

So, what is cognitive warfare? Cognitive warfare is a key component of hybrid warfare. It is a process that focusses on influencing and manipulating the human cognitive process, our perceptions, and our decision-making abilities to influence individuals and the wider population. It aims to influence individuals and prevent them from being able to make informed, impartial decisions for themselves. At the heart of cognitive warfare is the clear objective of state or non-state actors to alter how a population thinks, its opinion and its perception of real-world events for military, political or strategic gain. There are clear aims and objectives in a campaign of cognitive warfare which include:

• The shaping of public opinion, by influencing perceptions and the decision-making processes of targeted demographics or individuals.
• Influence on governmental policies.
• Destabilisation of public institutions.
• To sow division, undermine social cohesion and divide societies.
• Gain strategic, political and military advantages, while remaining below the threshold for conventional warfare or military response.
• Undermining trust in democratic processes.
• Altering how society, individuals or specific demographics, process and react to specific information.
• Undermining public confidence, supressing critical thinking, and radicalising opinions within target populations and specific demographics.
• Creating confusion, mistrust and division within society, or specific groups in society.
• Exploiting vulnerabilities in human cognition, particularity through cognitive bias.

So, what does cognitive warfare look like and how can we see it? Isn’t it simply misinformation or disinformation activities? Cognitive warfare differs from simple misinformation in that its aim is to not just spread false or inaccurate information; its aim is to strategically manipulate the beliefs and perceptions of people, in order to achieve a military or political objective. Likewise, while disinformation is aimed at the deliberate spreading of false information to deceive or confuse, cognitive warfare goes one step further by attempting to influence how people will interpret that information and respond to it. Cognitive bias is a significant factor in cognitive warfare. It influences our decision making by causing miscalculations in our judgement through subconscious influences. This can often lead to an individual creating a subjective reality in their own minds, leading to poor judgement and, on reflection, flawed reasoning. A clear example of confirmation bias were the recent far right protests in the UK. These protests were fuelled by conspiracy theories and misinformation about the tragic murder of three children in Southport. These conspiracy theories aligned with an existing far right narrative in the UK, regarding the anti-immigration narrative in certain far right groups. The false narrative that the murders had been committed by an immigrant, led to cognitive bias in the minds of many protesters, and led to widespread violent protests and appalling acts as the result of clear subconscious influences.

The US elections are another good example of how foreign states use cognitive warfare. Russia used disinformation and misinformation along with social media manipulation, to influence public opinion throughout the US, dividing communities and sowing discord throughout society. Their objectives were clear - they sought to alter how voters perceived political figures and political narratives in the US, with an overall objective of manipulating the electoral outcome without ever directly interfering with the voting systems. This created confusion and distrust in voters, and shaped the dominant narratives that were being manipulated through social media, amplifying often distorted perceptions of reality. Through social media platforms, Russia was able to rapidly disseminate huge quantities of disinformation to manipulate public opinion. In 2021, this very nearly led to disaster, as supporters of Donald trump stormed Capitol Hill to overturn the election results of 2020 which saw Donald Trump lose the election to Joe Biden. What led to this? Widespread allegations by Donald Trump and his supporters, closely aligned with an overwhelming information overload on social media, driving the narrative of election fraud and corruption.

Another example of the use of Cognitive Warfare was evident during China’s large scale military drills near Taiwan in 2023. Significant hostilities exist between China and Taiwan, which stem from the unresolved Chinese Civil War in1949. After the war, the defeated Nationalist government fled to Taiwan leading to competing claims of legitimacy and sovereignty. China has always viewed Taiwan as a breakaway province that must be reunified with mainland China. However, Taiwan has developed its own democratic system and identity over decades of existing independence. The military exercises that China undertook close to Taiwan were designed to intimidate the Taiwanese population and simulate a full-scale attack on Taiwan by China. In the build-up to the exercises, China also conducted a coordinated campaign of disinformation and media manipulation, aiming to undermine Taiwan’s military and political leadership. By showcasing a large-scale deployment of military hardware, China aimed to project strength and military capability, while in the process, psychologically influencing Taiwanese citizens by creating a culture of fear around how an invasion by China may look. Running parallel to this, China undertook an aggressive campaign of disinformation and propaganda to undermine public confidence in the Taiwanese government and military, while promoting pro-China narratives. China’s use of social media platforms to spread misleading information about military capabilities and intentions, was a crucial part of this strategy and reinforced its military presence in the region.

Whether we are dealing with the increasing far-right narrative across Europe, the rise of extremism globally, the risk from Islamic terrorism in Africa or the Russian invasion of Ukraine, we must start educating the population about the risks from cognitive warfare. In an era where information manipulation can significantly impact societal cohesion and individual decision-making, it is crucial that we do all we can to inform people about this key component of hybrid warfare. It is essential that we fully understand what is influencing our perceptions of events, our decision making and our reasoning. It is the responsibility of Central Governments to identify a strategy to combat the risk of cognitive warfare to protect the population from such threats and build societal resilience. Governments must educate its population through public awareness initiatives, to ensure that we are countering this clear and very present threat. As individuals, we must start to focus on making sure we critically evaluate our sources of information, be that the mainstream media, social media, the internet or our own networks. We must ensure we recognise sensationalised narratives, along with clear misinformation and disinformation, remaining sceptical about all information that we read or hear. To strengthen our defences against cognitive warfare, we must have a more informed and engaged population. To do this, we must firstly recognise there is a problem, then secondly recognise the consequences of not doing anything.

The recent far-right protests in the UK were a clear indicator of the power of cognitive warfare, and how quickly a sensationalized narrative led to widespread violence and a threat to national security. The riots led to widespread anti-Muslim and anti-immigration sentiment, and resulted in attacks on minority communities. It highlighted deep societal divisions in the UK and the potential for escalating extremism. Think back to when the far-right protests occurred in the UK this year. When you first heard about the mass stabbings in Southport and claims the perpetrator was an asylum seeker, how did you feel? What did you do to clarify the information you had? Did you verify it through reputable channels, cross reference multiple sources, check the credentials of the authors, was it backed by credible evidence and expert opinion? Did you consider questioning the source of the information or look for biases and inaccuracies? Think again about the earlier reference, i.e., Cognitive bias influences our decision making by causing miscalculations in our judgement through subconscious influences. Cognitive warfare is just one component of a wider hybrid warfare strategy being actively engaged by our adversaries. The far-right riots this year serve as a stark reminder of the dangers posed by widespread disinformation. Such manipulation of public perception can swiftly erode trust in government and precipitate national instability. Could we see a Capitol Hill style riot in the UK? Can we really afford the risk of finding out.

?