Miscoded: an evolutionary argument for a prosperous 2020

This is an excellent article by Steven Pinker with some hugely powerful insights about what we can expect from 2020: https://on.ft.com/2QuBLdu 

What struck me is the insight into why the news is usually negative: news covers issues and events that happen suddenly and unexpectedly, which are usually adverse or gloomy. This observation needs extension because news being negative is a significant issue. It is not that the press only prints negative stories, it is also that negative stories interest us more so than optimistic ones. This isn’t naive - it is rooted in cold hard science.  

Our research shows that headlines are invariably negative because we are coded to seek negative signals, and not positive ones. As a specie, we evolved over millions of years during which threats were physical – being eaten by a wild animal as an example – and we are thus coded to seek dangerous and threatening signals to warn and protect us against these dangers. Those that failed to do so were killed; so we are the descendants of those that sought the negative and survived as a result. Because of this, we have a far greater interest in issues and events that are negative than those that are positive. 

It’s a real pity because since the agricultural and industrial revolutions we now exist in a world wherein threats are not physical, but rather systemic: it is the breakdown of systems like government, and education, healthcare, and financial systems that threaten us – not being eaten by wild animals. And to minimise systemic dangers requires trust, a function of community, communication and cooperation – which demands that we seek positive signals and not just negative cues. But we can’t help ourselves because we are miscoded - the industrial and agricultural revolutions happened remarkably quickly by evolutionary standards and we haven’t evolved quickly enough – we have lagged in pace to recognise that what threatens us has changed, and thus so too must our response. Think about 2019 - it would seem intuitively to have been an unusually difficult and negative year: nationalism and populism, trade wars, rising geopolitical tensions, the failure of capitalism, and more. But as Nicholas Kristof writes in his New York Times article on 28 December titled “This Has Been the Best Year Ever”, 2019 has been the best yet in terms of reducing poverty, reducing illiteracy and so on.

It turns out that only seeking negative signals is an evolutionary urge - and therefore by definition, primitive. It is seeking positive signals as well that requires sophistication because it requires us to resist our primitive urges and natural inclinations. We need to do this - can you imagine what we could achieve if people actively sought out and paid attention to the positive rather than solely the negative? 

I wish all of you a prosperous and positive 2020.