A mindset to value 'Estimating' over 'Estimates'

It is all about 'Estimating'

Estimating is all about guessing and speculating. Given the analysis nature behind this activity, we need to have some ideas of what we are trying to analyze.

The complex domain in which we operate has more unknowns over knowns. There is a necessity in this context to stop piling up more assumptions in terms of estimating the existing set of assumptions coming from the unknowns.

The science behind estimating helps in building a shared understanding among the people who want the work to be done and people performing the work.

Estimating as a group promotes collaboration and helps yielding better results. Diversity comes from experience and knowledge within the group creates space for adding perspectives and leading questions.

Elements of 'Why', 'What', 'Who', and 'How' are discussed and understood as a team part of the estimating exercise. Such discussions expose differences and create opportunities for conversations to happen.

It is from such conversations as a team, assumptions do surface which is the most important thing to happen part of the activity.

As a team when they come to know enough about the “what” & “how,” they can analyze the implementation approach at a high level bringing more assumptions timely to the surface.

I know these are easier said than done. The situation we are discussing here definitely demands a lot of discipline. A discipline to refrain practices for coming up with estimates from ungrounded guesses.

And often not about the 'Estimates'

Is everything green about the estimating activity with built-in shared understanding? No, not really unless we stop showing our indignity by treating estimates as targets.

Once an organization shows this shift of treating estimating as targets, the focus is also wrongly set towards meeting such targets. This eventually drives the practices on the ground to become the de facto goal. This pushes the conversations aside around what is most valuable and channelizes the energy towards the de facto method.

Workshops, training, and even e-learning course content do get created to propagate estimates as promises.

Still, no one can predict the future, but a popular practice to treat estimates as a guarantee does creep in the minds of the practitioners.

Failed predictions fan blame and what really suffers is trust and transparency.

Adding buffers and other contingency measures become a norm when dealing with unknowns in the complex space.

Workstations are modified to game stations with few implicit rules to gamify estimates. Fabrication and fudging the numbers are some of the few best practices at this juncture to make everything possible for a vivid path in the dark.

Estimates aren't a record of history, instead, a rough guess about what will happen in the future.

Wrap Up!

There is no recommendation to stop focussing on estimates till we understand

1. Estimates are relative size with projections based on empirical data.
2. Estimates are a guess and holding people to a guess is not a reasonable thing.
3. Estimating is neither bidding nor arriving at a guaranteed number (aiding to a contract).
4. Estimating promotes meaningful & collaborative dialogue than a competitive antagonism.

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