Millennials will NOT make up 75% of the workforce

So we’ve seen it in all the Future of Work studies. Millennials will make up 75% of the workforce by 2025. Some say 2030. I say, never.

Don’t get me wrong- Search my previous articles or where I have been quoted in the media and you’ll have seen me rehash this one. I’ve (wrongly) used it a fair bit. You see, something of a false misconception has been created.

When you think about it, to suggest that three other generations will collectively make up 25% of the working population doesn’t seem quite right.

Let’s have a look at where it all started.

In April 2011, the Business Professional Women (BPW) Foundation published their Gen Y Women in the Workplace study, which claimed that by 2025, Generation Y (or Millennials) will make up roughly 75% of the world’s workforce. The study referenced the US Department of Labor but wasn’t specific about the data source. It then began to be directly quoted in magazines like Forbes and Time, and then promulgated through thought leadership by leading advisors such as Deloitte, PwC, EY, and the World Economic Forum. They were all wrong.

If Millennials won’t make up 75% of the workforce, then what? It obviously depends what jurisdiction and labour market we are looking at. Across the majority of continents, Millennials are approaching their peak representation in the workforce now. In 2020. Somewhere around the 40% mark. The main outliers are Africa, the only continent where Millennials could exceed 50% of the workforce, and Europe, which has next to no population growth and therefore will see Millennials peak towards the back end of the decade, albeit still unlikely to exceed 40% of the total workforce.

Throw in coronavirus on top of this. A lot of older workers were stood down. Others lived in countries that allowed them to dip into their retirement savings early so as to ride out the pandemic. While this will be enough for some to wade their way into retirement, it is likely that the majority of older workers will stay in the workforce even longer. That is to say, the proportional representation of Millennials will be further diminished by Baby Boomers postponing retirement.

Let’s not lose sight of what the whole 75% thing was getting at though. It has led organisations to better engage with and consider emerging generational preferences and employee expectations. Coupled with broader societal shifts, it has contributed to a conversation about greater flexibility, increased mobility, a focus on purpose, and bringing a certain authenticity to leadership. These are expectations that will shift yet again in response to the ‘new normal’ that COVID-19 has thrown at us.

Lesson learnt: Millennials will not make up 75% of the workforce. Not now. Not ever.