Millennials and The Future Of Work
Millennials and the Post Millennials, arguably, the most blessed generations ever, in terms of education, access to technology, helicopter parenting, on-demand information and extreme social networking are on the threshold of massive change that could be transformative; unfortunately, not altogether is a positive way.
Millennials are the most researched generation ever, particularly by marketers, who have spent substantial resources to profile them and to get a handle on their purchasebehaviour. Consequently, we know that a millennial was born in the early 80s through to the late 90s followed by the post – millennials or late millennials a.k.a Generation –Z. Born with digital spoons, they spend between 5 to 10 hours online that shapes theirpurchase decisions, lifestyle, ideology, politics and even religion. Helicopter parentinghas instilled in them the belief that they are ‘special’, ‘unique’ and have the freedom tofollow their ‘passion’. This script in their head does not always play – out in real lifemaking them the most stressed generation ever. They are also the most educated generation ever, but paradoxically earn, on average, 20% less that their parents adjusting for inflation and context, of course. They are not too bothered with ownership of assets and happily participate in the sharing economy. They are agog with ideas and driven by passion that leads them to helm twice as many new businesses as any other generation, though, alas, they also fail twice as much. At the workplace they value work – life balance much more than money and treasure open and transparent relationships with employers, peers and even marketers.
These children of technology, as it were, are now on the cusp of an oncoming techrevolution that will test them to the extreme and may well decide their futures. Five new technologies viz Artificial Intelligence; the term that includes Big data, deep learning, machine learning and cloud computing, Internet of Things, 5G powered data networks, robotics and automation and 3-D printing that are on the cusp of deep penetration into our economies are set to change their employment profile radically.
Of the five technologies, AI and Automation, are core developments powered by the other three as enablers. Reputed analysts argue that productivity gains to National economies through adoption to scale of AI could be as high as high as 37% suggesting that National Governments will be sorely tempted to adopt AI, even at the cost of job losses and no new employment generation in the belief that as economies grow dramatically, funds generated would be ploughed back into State – funded social security systems to assist the un-employed or under – employed. This is a contra – argument to those who believe that Governments will force slow induction of AI to preserve jobs and to sustain employment.
Consider automation; analysts believe that across countries at different economic development stages, at least 40% of activities, presently performed by humans, can be automated. Further, benefits of automation are strikingly significant, though they vary from sector to sector. From a low of 10% for education services to a high of 55% for manufacturing, most sectors will benefit in terms of productivity gains. With a 30% increase in average output per worker due to automation, it’s a no – brainer that profit – focused enterprises will willingly and gleefully embrace automation. Jobs be damned!
Industry 5.0, the new term envisioning work spaces embedded with collaborative robots or ‘cobots’ who will work along-side humans on manufacturing facilities is seen as the next tech-wave affecting the shop-floor. However, these ‘cobots’ are becoming increasingly affordable compared with manual labour and are already cost –completive in most advanced economies with manual labour in India and China alonebeing presently competitive compared with Cobots. However, this will change asexperts predict that ‘cobots’ will become increasingly cheaper compared with manuallabour as machine learning and production to scale work in tandem. So, while machine– floor jobs in India and China may be relatively safe for the time – being, theforeseeable future is not too promising from the employment perspective. This too is a contra – argument to industry visionaries who see collaborative work – spaces in which humans will happily co-exist with robots with the inherent assumption that jobs for humans will be secure.
Futurists agree that even today when these technologies are still evolving, jobless economic growth has emerged as the new normal. This means that while economies continue to grow, driven by productivity gains through these technologies, job creation is at a virtual standstill.As these technologies become mainstream, new jobs will become even more scarce, existing jobs will pay less or will cease to exist. Job security, much prized by 50% of millennials, will become history with job longevity restricted to 5 – 7 years at best. Just as tech-induced revolutions of the past, this wave will also create more jobs, but they will be small in number and mostly in high – technology areas or in those that cannot be replicated by robots. However, full – time jobs will mostly vanish and underemployment will be the norm. For re – employment, one will need constant re – training and re – skilling as new job categories will evolve.
Not a happy place to be in, for the millennials.
A study by the Mc Kinsey Global Institute in 2017 that captured net job destruction ,after accounting for new job creation as well by new-age technologies compared the situation of advanced economies of USA, Japan and Germany with the developingworld represented by China, Mexico and India upto 2030. The study captures a wide swathe of occupational groups from care givers to technology and management professionals to office support workers. The study finds that while the advanced economies have already entered the net job destruction phase that will become more pronounced going forward upto 2030, developing economies will largely see a net rise in employment indicating that the employment market of these economies for the next decade remains stable to positive, but beyond 2030 it is as yet a guessing game.
This study estimates that by 2030, 75 Million to 375 million workers (3 to 14%) of the global work force will need to switch occupational categories to remain in employment. Workers will need to adapt and change as automation deepens and activities undertaken by humans are increasingly performed more consistently and accurately by cobots. To remain relevant in the employment market, one will need higher education, niche advanced technology knowledge such as in big data analysis, deep learning, machine learning, cloud computing, precision mechanical engineering, robotics, material engineering and acquiring skills that cannot be replicated by robots and focusing on capacity building to be creative and to innovate.
In an era where constant learning will become the norm, new employment compacts will need to be positioned. Government policy makers will need to create the infrastructure that enables constant re – learning and re – skilling to maintain a labour force that is relevant to the industry. Employees will need to accept that job – security is a redundant concept and that continuous learning is essential for re – employment. They will have to anticipate what the next learning requirement will be and re-train accordingly. They will have to allocate a budget from their present earning to pay for re – learning and re – skilling and re – negotiate employment contracts with employers to ensure that they are liable for some basic remuneration during job transitions and also for re – training and re – skilling. Employers will realise that niche technologies will require niche knowledge and skills for which they may have to create the necessary learning infrastructure; either in – house or in association with the academic community. They will also have to assume the onus of re – skilling their workforce as part of their employment contracts.
AI and automation, together with their empowering technologies will continue to sustain economic growth of Nations for about a decade and a half, say upto 2035, albeit at the cost of increased un-employment and under – employment and will exacerbate poverty, wealth destruction of masses and rising inequality. Jobless economic growth as the norm will become further entrenched.The troika of demographics, automation and rising inequality, largely in the millennial and post millennial population, will inevitably give rise to severe societal stress and political instability. We can already see some manifestations of this prophecy playing out in the advanced economies, particularly in Europe, where social guarantees of the
State are gradually being eroded and large swings in political fortunes are being witnessed. Greece, Spain and Portugal and to a lesser extent Italy has high youth unemployment and gross under – employment. Graduates and post – graduates cannot find commensurate jobs. Student loans remain unpaid as jobs on offer are part – time with low hourly wages and no statutory benefits.
Regrettably, the millennials and post millennials are in the thick of it and will no doubt bear the brunt of the social churn that appears imminent.India is not immune to this emerging paradigm. While automation will largely manifest during new capacity creation, the IT and online services spaces are already impacted as India leads the race in adopting AI technology to scale in the IT and related sectors. Against the global average of 36%, adoption of AI to scale by Indian companies topped global levels at 58%. In these sectors, pink slips are being handed out and fewer new jobs are being created. If we care to decipher, the signs are all there for us to see. The usual villains fewer jobs, retrenchments, under – employment, wage stagnation, all make the cut. The affected sectors too are a wide swath ranging from the traditional entry – level IT jobs to entry to mid – level jobs in the financial, para – legal, medical, customer – interaction, agriculture and construction sectors. A reflection of higher education not living upto its promise of providing employment is evident from the fact that about 800 engineering and 100 institutions offering MBA degrees have closed shop. Admittedly, they are at the low end of the quality spectrum, but nevertheless a clear indicator of facts on the ground and state of affairs in the future.
How are the millennials and post – millennials expected to respond to this tectonic job employment upheaval?
(1) Improve and strengthen their core i.e. Body, mind, emotion, behaviour, personality This is an area where the least financial investment takes place. While big bucks are allocated toward technical training and allied skills, it is assumed that education and family up-bringing has addressed this part somehow. Alas, this is untrue and the sooner millennials accept this reality the better it is for them.
(2) Listen to Peter Drucker when he says that “The only skill that will be important in the 21st century is the skill of learning new skills. Everything else will become obsolete over time”. Life – long learning is an existential requirement for which millennials need to allocate a financial budget. Estimates for this allocation could be as much of 40% of present earnings.
(3) Aim to become irreplaceable; Future-proof your job. EQ has been the in – thing for some time now after IQ became passé, however the need to embrace it is much more strident now. Millennials need to invest in skills that cannot be replicated by robots. They need to work on empathy, emotion, compassion, relationship and communication skills that will hold the key to future employment in a host of sector ranging from caring for the elderly, social networks, news authentication, blogging, writing, creative arts, tourism, and counselling amongst others.
(4) Millennials need to move away from fixation on jobs for income. They need to be prepared to work as freelancers, be self – employed and morph into entrepreneurs. Critical thinking and capacity to innovate are key requirements which can be acquired provided they are willing to invest in relevant capacity building. Financial allocation from present earnings toward seed – money for start – ups is essential if entrepreneurship is one’s calling. The future is upon us, already. The young of a country will yield demographic dividend, provided they pre-empt the momentous changes that are literally, just around the corner. Behaving like the proverbial frog in hot water that is unable to detect the subtle, but sure changes around him is a sure recipe for life-long failure. Institutional frameworks around us suffer from inertia and lag in responding to oncoming structural changes, mostly because they benefit from them. Take for example, educational institutions that continue to churn – out students with knowledge and skills that are destined for imminent redundancy in the near future.
This is true for policy – makers and other actors as well. It is for the millennials and post – millennials to realise that their future is now quite literally in their hands. If they are ill – informed today, they will be ill – prepared for it when tomorrow comes. They should put their much-vaunted social media skills to spread this message amongst their peers and act; lest they be consigned to ignominy and disappointment.