Milk Market: Have we reached the peak? Market Analysis from 7 February 2025

Current observations indicate stability in cheese, protein concentrates, and skimmed milk powder, while spot milk and milk fat prices are slightly on the decline.

Market Development: Review and Outlook

Following initial discussions regarding foot-and-mouth disease in Germany, the situation has largely stabilised. However, veterinarians remain under significant pressure, as additional certificates need to be issued. Despite a rise in prices over the past few weeks, we are now observing stagnation or a slight negative trend, with new concerns arising from the seasonal increase in milk production in Europe and the imposition of tariffs in the USA.

Market Situation in Switzerland

In Switzerland, the challenges vary across cantons, particularly concerning veterinary certificates, which are handled and priced differently. Centralisation would be beneficial to reduce administrative hurdles.

Moreover, the situation remains tense: high milk prices and a strong currency are affecting exports. High fat prices in the EU are simultaneously leading to declining protein prices, making the export of skimmed milk powder and protein concentrates even more challenging.

Have we reached the peak?

While discussions about a potential market downturn are increasing, the milk production levels are not experiencing any unusually strong rises. Demand remains stable, and thanks to the weak euro, Europe continues to be competitive. Furthermore, current low stock levels favour a short-term stabilisation with the potential for further increases, rather than a prolonged downturn.

?Outlook for Q1 and Q2 2025

?- Q1 2025:

? Rising prices anticipated.

?- Q2 2025:

? Stock levels are currently low enough that we do not expect declining prices for Q2.

?It is important to note that the MAGA policy in the USA, along with tariffs, could impact the milk market at any time and lead to unforeseen disruptions.

We will be present at the following trade fairs:

?-??????? Tutto Food, Milan, 5–8 May 2025, we will have a stand for Cheespro Walo

-??????? PLMA, Amsterdam, 20 & 21 May 2025,

-??????? International Cheese Awards 2025

-??????? Summer Fancy Food, New York, 29 June – 1 July 2024, with our partner World's Best Cheese

-??????? Le Mondial du Fromage et Produits Laitiers, Tours (France), 14–16 September 2025, We will have a stand.

-??????? Anuga, K?ln 4 – 8. October 2025, with our Partner Dicke Food

-??????? World Cheese Award, 13 – 15. November 2025, Bern, we will have a stand

-??????? Winter Fancy Food, San Diego, 11 – 13 January 2026 with our partner World's Best Cheese.

-??????? Marca, Bologna, 14 – 15 January 2026, I will visit the show

-??????? Salon du Fromage, Paris 22 – 24. February 2026, we will have a stand

Stay informed! Enjoy the exquisite Swiss flower meadow cheese made from raw milk – not only a delight but also healthy and soothing!

Kind regards, Affineur Walo