Military tech in 2024: lift off for AI & autonomy

A Review of the Top Global Defence Technology Stories of 2024 by Campaign Catapult partner Jamie Allan

The past 12 months have been pivotal in the global defence sector, with rapid advancements in military technology reshaping strategies and security paradigms. From AI-driven weaponry and the proliferation of unmanned systems to the emergence of quantum computing in defence applications, 2024 has been a year marked by transformative developments. This article reviews some of the top defence technology stories over the past year, analysing their implications for national security, international relations and the future of warfare.

1. The U.S. Department of Defence’s AI-Driven Defence Modernisation Plan

One of the most significant and widely discussed stories of 2024 has been the announcement of the U.S. Department of Defense’s AI-Driven Defence Modernisation Plan: a groundbreaking initiative designed to integrate artificial intelligence (AI) across various military systems. With an investment of over $10 billion, the plan aims to enhance the United States' ability to counter emerging threats from state actors like China and Russia, as well as non-state actors that increasingly rely on cyber warfare and unconventional tactics.

The centerpiece of the plan is the development of autonomous systems capable of operating independently on land, sea and air. This includes unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) that can perform surveillance and precision strikes with minimal human intervention. By shifting the focus towards autonomous decision-making, the U.S. military aims to reduce reaction time and enhance operational speed, particularly in high-stakes combat scenarios. AI will also play a critical role in cybersecurity, where it is expected to proactively defend against the growing threat of cyberattacks on critical military infrastructure.

This push towards AI-powered defence systems has raised ethical concerns, particularly around autonomous lethal weapons, which can make decisions about targeting and engagement without human oversight. Critics warn that the rush to develop such technologies could lead to unintended consequences or even miscalculation during high-pressure moments on the battlefield. Nonetheless, the DoD’s strategy represents a significant leap toward AI-powered warfare, which will shape the future of conflict.

2. China's AI Military Advancements and the Race for Technological Superiority

While the U.S. has been making headlines with its AI initiatives, China has also been at the forefront of the technological arms race. Throughout 2024, China has made considerable strides in advancing its military capabilities, with a particular focus on AI, quantum technologies and hypersonic weapons.

A key development in China’s defence strategy has been its autonomous military drones, which are designed to operate across a wide range of terrains and environments. In March 2024, the Chinese government revealed the successful test flight of a combat drone capable of flying at hypersonic speeds, reducing the likelihood of interception by traditional defence systems. These drones are expected to be a game-changer in future conflicts, providing China with a significant tactical advantage, especially in areas like the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait.

In addition to unmanned systems, China has been actively developing AI-driven cyber warfare tools capable of infiltrating enemy networks, gathering intelligence and executing counterattacks. The Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) has incorporated AI into its defence strategy not only for offensive capabilities but also for decision support — using AI to analyse vast amounts of data in real time to help commanders make better battlefield decisions. This marks China as a formidable player in the emerging AI arms race.

As China builds these technologies, it also raises concerns over global stability, especially in light of China’s assertive territorial claims. The increased reliance on AI and autonomous systems in China's military is likely to lead to an acceleration in global arms races, as other countries seek to match or counter China's technological edge.

3. The Rise of Quantum Computing in Defence

2024 also marked significant strides in the integration of quantum computing into military applications. Quantum computing, with its potential to revolutionise encryption, data analysis and simulation, is quickly emerging as a key area of investment for several major defence powers.

In April 2024, the U.S. Army partnered with several leading tech firms to explore the development of quantum technologies for military encryption. Quantum computing is expected to enhance cybersecurity by making encryption methods far more secure, something especially critical as nations increasingly rely on digital infrastructures in military operations. Quantum encryption promises to create virtually unbreakable communication channels, which are vital for maintaining the integrity of military command and control systems.

Meanwhile, China has also made significant headway in quantum research, with the Chinese Academy of Sciences announcing breakthroughs in quantum radar technology. This could have profound implications for military defence, as quantum radar systems are believed to have the potential to detect stealth aircraft and other objects that would be invisible to traditional radar. With both the U.S. and China vying for supremacy in this field, quantum computing and quantum encryption are quickly becoming a battleground for technological superiority in the defence sector.

As the military applications of quantum computing evolve, experts anticipate its use in areas such as AI decision-making, military simulations and even the development of new, more efficient defence strategies. Quantum technologies could not only provide a significant advantage in the event of military conflict but also allow nations to secure their digital borders in ways never before imagined.

4. Hypersonic Weapons and the Renewed Focus on Speed and Precision

In 2024, the development of hypersonic weapons continued to gain momentum, particularly among nations like the U.S., Russia and China. These weapons, capable of travelling at speeds greater than Mach 5, offer unparalleled speed and manoeuvrability, making them exceedingly difficult to defend against.

Russia, which began testing hypersonic missiles several years ago, made significant advancements with its Zircon hypersonic cruise missile, which was reported to be successfully tested in the Arctic in January 2024. The missile, designed to be launched from both sea and land platforms, is intended to target enemy ships and missile defence systems. Similarly, China’s DF-17 hypersonic glide vehicle, designed for long-range precision strikes, has raised alarms due to its ability to evade current missile defence systems.

The U.S. has also been pushing for hypersonic advancements, with the Pentagon investing heavily in hypersonic missile development programs. In June 2024, the U.S. Navy successfully tested the Conventional Prompt Strike (CPS) missile, designed to hit targets at long ranges with high precision and minimal warning. Hypersonic weapons are seen as essential for maintaining a military edge in high-stakes scenarios, as their speed and unpredictability make them difficult to intercept.

The rapid development of hypersonic weapons is spurring a new arms race, with global security implications. The ability to strike anywhere in the world with precision and speed alters the calculus of both nuclear and conventional warfare. As these weapons proliferate, there are growing concerns over escalation risks and the challenges of establishing effective arms control agreements.

5. AI in Autonomous Naval Systems: A New Era of Sea Power

2024 has also been a defining year for the application of AI in autonomous naval systems. In the past year, countries like the United States, China and the United Kingdom have made considerable strides in integrating AI into their fleets of unmanned maritime systems, which are designed to conduct surveillance, anti-submarine warfare and even offensive operations.

The U.S. Navy has expanded its fleet of autonomous vessels, with several successful missions undertaken by the Ghost Fleet Overlord Program, which aims to develop unmanned surface vessels capable of carrying out complex operations without human crews. These AI-powered ships are equipped with advanced sensors and algorithms that allow them to detect and respond to threats autonomously, and they can operate in tandem with manned vessels to form a more versatile and effective naval force.

The UK’s Royal Navy has also been actively testing unmanned submarines capable of performing intelligence gathering and anti-submarine operations. These systems rely on AI to analyse data from the underwater environment and make autonomous decisions in real time, significantly enhancing the operational capabilities of naval forces.

The proliferation of AI-powered naval systems signals a shift in how maritime forces will operate in the future. The ability to deploy fleets of unmanned vessels and submarines with AI-driven decision-making will provide strategic advantages, particularly in high-risk or contested environments. However, as these technologies advance, there are concerns about autonomous decision-making in maritime conflict, especially when it comes to the use of force.

Conclusion: The Future of Defence Technology

As we look back over the last 12 months, it’s clear that technological innovation is driving the evolution of global defence strategies. From AI and quantum computing to hypersonic weapons and autonomous systems, the past year has highlighted the increasing convergence of military capabilities and cutting-edge technologies. This rapid acceleration in defence innovation is not without its challenges and risks, particularly as new technologies bring both opportunities and ethical dilemmas.

Looking forward, the global defence sector will continue to grapple with questions of governance, regulation and arms control in an era where advanced technologies like AI, quantum computing and hypersonic weapons are reshaping the nature of conflict. As nations race to develop and deploy these technologies, it is critical to ensure that international norms and frameworks evolve to keep pace with these developments, minimising risks and maintaining global security.

The next decade promises to be one of profound change in defence technology, where innovation will redefine the future of warfare and security. The key question will be how nations navigate this technological revolution, balancing the drive for military supremacy with the need for responsible and ethical use of power.

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