Milestones - a bad substitute for trust

In 1894, renowned expedition leader Robert Tatum Sr. is contacted by William B. Reinhart, wealthy owner of several thriving mining corporations. Reinhart wants Tatum to locate one particular spot in the Sonoran desert and prospect it for gold. This is the story of the endeavour.

Tatum and Reinhart meet for the first time late September 1894 in a hotel in Tucson, Arizona. Reinhart not only offers good daily rates for Tatum and his men but is also willing to sponsor first class equipment for the expedition - among other things a prototype of a highly modern portable short wave radio device.

However, there's no such thing as a free lunch, Tatum learns early in the negotiations:

First of all, Reinhart suspects that some of his competitors are also preparing an expedition to find the "Sonoran golden spot" - so he hurries Tatum along from morning to night.

Secondly, he expects Tatum to provide a detailled milestone plan of the expedition up front telling exactly, where on the map Tatum will be when.

Tatum has never been in the Sonoran desert before (however, in lots of other deserts) and the area is pretty much uncharted territory towards the end of the 19th century. A substantial milestone plan is nothing he can come up with.

However, Reinhart won't budge - after all, how is he (the sponsor!) supposed to measure progress if he can't compare the real expedition advance against a planned one?

Reinhart even urges (almost orders) to have a three weeks pre-expedition - just to be able to come up with a milestone plan. Tatum is befuddled - that contradicts the hurry and pushiness he has been experiencing lately.

Four weeks later, Tatum is back from the "fact finding" pre-expedition: He has listened to myths, heard a lot of legends and learnt that the weather in the Sonoran is quite unpredictable at times. Yes, he does know a little bit more. But the facts he found are somewhere between scarce and ambiguous, to say the least.

In order to be able to proceed, he agrees to write down a milestone plan.

The mission is called a go!

In early 1895, Tatum and his men leave Tucson and enter the Sonoran desert.

The first milestone is met a day early. Tatum fires up his radio and sends a cheerful "Milestone ONE reached ahead of time!" over the ether.

However, his good luck leaves Tatum only a day later: First, a sandstorm forces him to leave the agreed route and seek shelter behind some rocks for two days. Then, three further days into the expedition, Tatum finds an unsurmountable area covered totally with cacti on his route and has to make a detour bringing him far to the East.

The following night's radio call with Reinhart is somewhat frosty...

The next adventure is to cross Belmont Mountain Range. Fortunately, from the unplanned easterly position Tatum is at, this looks less difficult than planned! However - and there is no discussion about it - the planned milestone at the Belmont Mountains' foot is still at its original spot: far back to the West.

Reinhart insists on sticking to the agreed milestone plan. After all, that's what agreements are made for.

When Tatum finally reaches the mountain pass in the Belmonts, he already has to report full three days behind schedule (half a day of these three days has been spent on re-calculating the milestone plan).

The atmosphere between Reinhart and Tatum is tense.

After two further unexpected delays, Reinhart finally calls off the expedition and orders Tatum and his men back to Tucson.

A seasoned desert expedition leader has failed a well-planned mission - what has happened?

Reinhart and Tatum have planned and executed the expedition by the book and left nothing to chance:

1. They have prepared a detailled milestone plan for the expedition up front.
2. They have compared actual progress to planned progress and taken care not to throw good money after bad.
3. They have not hesitated to call the expedition off as soon as the difference between actual progress and planned progress was above a certain threshold.

However, when Reinhart and Tatum approached the expedition via a detailled milestone plan, they failed to take the following into account:

1. Milestones don't make much sense on a white map: When you put two milestones on a white map, there is no way for you to figure out whether a stream of lava lies between them - or a free shuttle ride. So how can you tell what's a realistic amount of time for getting from milestone 1 to milestone 2? It's simple: You can't.
2. Tracking progress via milestones only works if the milestones constitute a proven and reasonable baseline of progress: In other words - if no-one has ever managed to reach the destination by a given milestone plan, that milestone plan may be a well-meant piece of advice - at best.
3. Any milestone plan is just a child of its time: milestone plans embody the knowledge of those who put them together - from the point of time they were put together. Neither do they magically adapt themselves to the growing amount of knowledge of those working with them, nor do they have the ability to cope with unexpected one-time changes (like sandstorms).
4. Milestone plans are not autopilot programs: Following a milestone plan - just because that seemt to be a reasonable thing to do some time ago - denies the fact that you learn while you walk. Milestone plans bear no value at all unless you are willing to scrap them any time.
5. Milestone plans always catch you between a rock and a hard place: Either, you constantly adapt the milestone plan according to your evolving insights into the expedition (thereby you will lose the capability of comparing your progress against a constant baseline) - or you leave your initial milestone plan untouched (and compare your progress against some ancient and meanwhile totally outdated nonsense). Take your choice!
6. Fact-finding pre-expeditions have their limits: You will not know how long it will take you to climb a mountain until you have climbed it. In particular, listening to someone telling you how he would climb the mountain if he had to, may get you anywhere - but for sure not near any realistic milestone plan.

Milestone plans and trust

However, the most important thing neglected by Tatum and Reinhart is - trust: Although Reinhart explicitly contracted an experienced desert expedition leader, he never let him off the leash: He even ordered Tatum to track back to a particular milestone when Tatum - who was (a) the expert and (b) on scene! - suggested to deviate from the plan and take advantage of the situation.

At that point of time the milestone plan shifted from a (however weak) help - to a remote controlling device from sponsor to expedition leader.

Now, what's the role milestone plans play in your life?