Migration Patterns and Gerrymandering and Their Implications for Northeast Ohio Voting in the 2024 Presidential Election
Don Iannone (Ya-known), Ph.D.
Author, business professor, economic development and public policy thought leader and speaker, poet, photographer, Harvard Business Review Advisory Council member.
By Donald T. Iannone, Ph.D.
I.??Introduction
Today is Halloween, and the 2024 presidential election is only six days away. Ohio voters might wonder: which is scarier—zombies, ghosts, or the endless campaign ads haunting our living rooms?
This article examines how population migration patterns and gerrymandering will likely impact the vote for president in twelve Northeast Ohio counties.
Population migration patterns refer to the trends and movements of people relocating from one area to another, influenced by various factors such as economic opportunities, social conditions, and environmental changes. These patterns can significantly impact a region's demographics and political landscape. On the other hand, gerrymandering is manipulating the boundaries of electoral districts to benefit a particular political party or group. This often leads to districts that do not accurately reflect the population’s voting preferences, affecting representation and election outcomes.
Recent demographic migration patterns have reshaped the economic, social, and political fabrics of the nation and Northeast Ohio, which is a pivotal swing region in a key battleground state. More residents have relocated from urban centers like Cleveland and Akron to surrounding suburban and rural counties in the past quarter century, driven by housing affordability, job location shifts, quality-of-life considerations, and lifestyle preferences. Amplified by the COVID-19 pandemic, migration trends since 2020 present a noteworthy picture of potential voting behavior changes across Northeast Ohio counties in the 2024 presidential election.
IRS migration data offers valuable insights into voting patterns by tracking population shifts between counties, states, and regions, which often correlate with political realignments. By analyzing where people are moving from and to, researchers can identify trends such as urban-to-rural or blue-to-red state migration, which impact local and national political landscapes. Furthermore, these data help forecast potential shifts in voting power, revealing how demographic changes may influence future elections at both state and federal levels.
Gerrymandering distorts residential migration patterns by polarizing communities, skewing resource allocation, and weakening legislative accountability. In states like Ohio, gerrymandering creates politically homogenous districts, often prompting people to relocate to areas that better match their values, further entrenching political divisions (Brennan Center for Justice, 2023; Fair Election Center, 2023). Resource allocation disparities follow as certain districts receive more funding for public services, like schools and infrastructure, while marginalized districts suffer, motivating migration toward better-served areas (Harvard Gazette, 2023). Legislators in gerrymandered, “safe” districts are less engaged, with lower legislative productivity, leading some residents to seek regions with more responsive representation (MIT Election Lab, 2023). Ohio reform advocates push for independent redistricting to address these distortions and create a fairer, more stable political landscape (Fair Election Center, 2023).
This article extrapolates possible voting behavior implications in Northeast Ohio counties from recent national demographic migration research by the Economic Innovation Group (EIG) and August Benzow. It is also supported by the research for my new book,?"America's Dream at a Crossroads: The 2024 Presidential Election and Beyond."
?II. Key Drivers of Migration in Northeast Ohio
Several underlying factors are driving significant changes in the demographic landscape. These are discussed below.
A.?? Housing Affordability and Demand
Housing affordability plays a primary role in driving migration patterns from urban to suburban and rural areas. Like many regions in the United States, Northeast Ohio's urban centers have experienced rising housing prices and rental rates, making it difficult for middle-income families and young professionals to access suitable housing (Benzow, 2024). As a result, many seek affordable alternatives in outlying areas where they can purchase larger homes, enjoy more land, and often benefit from a lower cost of living. This trend, which accelerated after 2020, has been a major factor in the population growth of suburban counties adjacent to Cleveland and Akron.
B.??? Economic Shifts and Job Location
One of the primary influences on migration is the decentralization of jobs from urban centers to suburban and exurban areas. Over the past three decades, the I-271 corridor in eastern Cuyahoga County has attracted numerous businesses due to the benefits of lower property costs, modern infrastructure, and proximity to a skilled workforce. This shift provides residents in suburban and rural counties with shorter commutes. It contributes to the growth of office and commercial hubs like Independence, Beachwood, and Solon (Ohio Department of Development, 2022). Similarly, these economic and job shifts have occurred in the I-77 corridor, where jobs have moved from Akron and Canton to I-77 corridor community locations. According to the EIG study, this shift in job locations enables families and professionals to consider suburban and rural living as a practical option without sacrificing employment opportunities (Benzow, 2024).
C.?? Remote Work Flexibility
The rise of remote work has further encouraged migration from urban centers. During the COVID-19 pandemic, remote work became a viable option for many professionals, allowing them to maintain employment without commuting into the city (American Community Survey, 2023). This shift has attracted individuals to suburban counties, where they can benefit from more spacious living arrangements and affordable housing (EIG, 2024). While more employers are requiring workers to return to their offices, remote work continues to appeal to young professionals and families drawn to suburban communities, who can now enjoy a better work-life balance away from urban congestion (Benzow, 2024).
D. Quality of Life and Safety Concerns
Quality of life and safety are key factors that drive families and individuals to leave urban centers for suburban and rural environments. Many residents of Cleveland and Akron cite concerns over rising crime rates, inadequate public schooling, and deteriorating infrastructure. In contrast, suburban and rural counties are perceived as safer and more conducive to family life, featuring higher-rated schools and improved infrastructure. These areas offer a quieter lifestyle with access to nature and less congestion, which has become increasingly attractive to residents who prioritize stability and security (EIG, 2024).
F. Lifestyle Preferences and Perceptions of Urban Problems
In addition to the factors listed above, lifestyle preferences play a substantial role in migration trends. The perception of urban challenges such as racial tensions, socioeconomic inequalities, and high traffic and noise levels have prompted many to seek suburban or rural alternatives. In particular, Benzow (2024) notes that perceptions of stability in rural areas attract residents seeking homogeneous communities that are viewed as more socially cohesive. I agree to an extent with this observation, but many rural and outlying areas are experiencing destabilization as broader economic, social, and technological developments, including AI, exert greater influences. For one, aging public infrastructure has become a more significant problem for rural and outlying areas, which are unprepared to support their new population and economic growth. Despite voter resistance, property and income tax increases are inevitable across counties, red and blue, in Northeast Ohio. Economic growth, especially residential growth, rarely pays for itself. This is an illusion sadly created by economic development organizations.
G. Racial Discrimination and Urban Challenges
Concerns about urban challenges such as racial tensions, crime, and socioeconomic inequality motivate those leaving urban cores. These perceptions are shaping suburban and rural migration, as some residents seek what they perceive as more cohesive and stable environments. Racial discrimination remains the "elephant in the room" that many people continue to pretend doesn't exist.
H. Widening Gulf in Values and Beliefs
The past decade overflows with evidence of how values and beliefs unite and divide America. This is particularly evident in how the values and beliefs of the right and left political extremes have built walls between family members, friends, communities, states, and our nation. Our differing visions of the future have torn our political system apart at the local, state, and national levels. The prospects of a second civil war in America grow stronger, which is the subject of my forthcoming book, "The Civil War Yesterday and Today in Poetry." All of this has a bearing on where people in Northeast Ohio will live and how they will vote.
III. Gerrymandering Impacts on Northeast Ohio County Voting
Gerrymandering has significantly impacted Northeast Ohio’s counties by shaping their political representation, often in ways that do not reflect their evolving demographics and voter diversity. Here’s a breakdown of how gerrymandering affects each of the 12 counties:
Overall, gerrymandering in Northeast Ohio has often split Democratic-leaning areas, combining them with conservative regions to diminish their representation. This ensures continued Republican advantages in the state legislature, even as migration shifts local demographics in some counties.
IV. Migration and Voting Patterns: Analysis of Northeast Ohio Counties
The influx of urban residents into rural and suburban counties has the potential to influence voting behavior, with implications for both local and national elections. Below is a county-by-county assessment of how migration trends might shape the political landscape in Northeast Ohio.?
1. Summit County: Summit County, anchored by Akron, has leaned Democratic, supporting Clinton in 2016 and Biden in 2020. Migration trends show younger professionals and families moving into suburban areas, likely reinforcing Democratic support. However, moderate newcomers from other suburban areas could temper this trend, keeping the county blue but with possible moderation due to a politically diverse migrant population.
2. Portage County: A swing county, Portage backed Trump narrowly in 2016 but returned to supporting Biden in 2020. Increased in-migration, particularly from university-centered towns like Kent, may give Portage a slight Democratic tilt, making it a competitive county as it attracts younger, education-focused residents with Democratic leanings.
3. Wayne County: Wayne County is mainly rural and consistently Republican, supporting Trump by substantial margins in 2016 and 2020. Limited urban in-migration suggests little political shift, and the county is expected to stay solidly Republican due to its agricultural base and minimal influx of younger, urban voters.
4. Stark County: Traditionally a bellwether, Stark County leaned Republican in 2016 and 2020, favoring Trump. New residents, particularly those attracted to suburban life, might add Democratic support. Still, the county is expected to remain red in 2024, although the margin may narrow due to a more balanced in-migration.
5. Lorain County: Lorain, historically Democratic, shifted towards Trump in 2020 after supporting Clinton in 2016. New urban residents are moving to Lorain, potentially increasing Democratic support and making it a pivotal county. Migrants seeking affordable housing near Cleveland may bring moderate to liberal viewpoints, supporting a Democratic resurgence.
6. Medina County: Medina has remained reliably Republican, backing Trump in 2016 and 2020. While attracting new residents from nearby urban centers, migration is expected to have minimal impact on the county’s conservative leanings, keeping it red in the 2024 election as newcomers generally align with the county’s suburban values.
7. Cuyahoga County: Ohio’s largest Democratic stronghold, Cuyahoga, backed Clinton in 2016 and Biden in 2020 by wide margins. Migration from Cleveland to suburbs hasn’t weakened the city’s Democratic base, so the county will likely remain solidly blue, with the urban core’s strong liberal leanings dominating the voting landscape.
8. Lake County: Traditionally conservative, Lake County supported Trump in 2016 and 2020. However, a balanced influx of newcomers, including those seeking suburban life close to Cleveland, may narrow the Republican margin, positioning Lake as a potential battleground with shifting suburban demographics.
9. Geauga County: Rural and heavily Republican, Geauga County voted decisively for Trump in 2016 and 2020. Minimal urban migration means that Geauga will likely remain a Republican stronghold, as a stable, low-migration rural population reinforces the area’s conservative values.
10. Ashtabula County: A rural, conservative area, Ashtabula switched from supporting Obama to voting for Trump in 2016 and 2020. Limited urban migration suggests that its red-leaning voter base will remain strong, and Ashtabula is expected to continue favoring Republican candidates.
11. Trumbull County: Trumbull, a former Democratic stronghold, shifted to Trump in 2016 and 2020. While some urban newcomers may bring Democratic support, Trumbull is expected to maintain its new Republican trend, influenced by migration patterns that include a mix of urban and Rust Belt voters with diverse backgrounds.
12. Mahoning County: Historically Democratic, Mahoning, including Youngstown, voted for Trump in 2020 after decades of supporting Democratic candidates. Migration patterns indicate a competitive landscape, with Youngstown potentially leaning Democratic while surrounding areas favor Republicans, making Mahoning a true battleground county for 2024.
Statewide Predictions for Ohio
Ohio has demonstrated a Republican lean in recent presidential elections. While migration trends contribute to more diverse political dynamics in some counties, they are not anticipated to shift the state’s overall preference in 2024 (American Community Survey, 2023). Migration from urban areas is likely to moderate voting patterns locally, particularly in swing counties like Lake and Lorain. However, Ohio is expected to remain red, with urban-to-rural migration only incrementally affecting county-level voting.
Gerrymandering primarily affects congressional and state legislative races by shaping district boundaries, but its indirect impact on the 2024 presidential vote in Ohio could still be significant. By consolidating voters to benefit one party at the state level, gerrymandering can influence the broader political climate, voter turnout, and campaign strategies, potentially amplifying Republican or Democratic support statewide. While the popular vote in Ohio decides the presidential election, the gerrymandered landscape may shape the political dynamics influencing voter behavior.
V. Age-Based Migration Drivers and Political Influence
Migration motivations vary significantly by age, which in turn influences political outcomes in different counties:
VI. Conclusion
Migration patterns in Northeast Ohio highlight a complex interplay of social, economic, and lifestyle factors that subtly reshape the region’s political landscape. While Ohio is expected to maintain a red tilt in the 2024 election, urban-to-rural migration introduces more centrist and moderate views that may gradually impact regional politics. Although these trends may not dramatically alter Ohio’s statewide results, the evolution of demographic migration in key counties could hint at potential long-term shifts in Northeast Ohio's political identity. Overall, gerrymandering in Northeast Ohio has often split Democratic-leaning areas, combining them with conservative regions to diminish their representation. This ensures continued Republican advantages in the state legislature, even as migration shifts local demographics in some counties. We will learn a great deal from the 2024 election results, encouraging a future update of this article.
References
American Community Survey. (2023). Remote work trends and demographic migration in Ohio. Retrieved from https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs
Benzow, A. (2024). How big-city expats might reshape the politics of rural America. Economic Innovation Group. Retrieved from https://eig.org/reports
Brennan Center for Justice. (2023). Gerrymandering explained. Retrieved from https://www.brennancenter.org
Economic Innovation Group. (2024). Urban-to-rural migration patterns and political outcomes. Retrieved from https://eig.org/research
Fair Election Center. (2023). How gerrymandering dilutes your vote, and what you can do about it. Retrieved from https://www.fairelectionscenter.org
Harvard Gazette. (2023). Biggest problem with gerrymandering. Retrieved from https://news.harvard.edu
MIT Election Lab. (2023). Gerrymandering, turnout, and lazy legislators. Retrieved from https://electionlab.mit.edu
Ohio Department of Development. (2022). Northeast Ohio economic trends and job location data. Ohio DOD Publications.
Smith, J. (2023). Urban problems and quality-of-life concerns in Ohio: A migration analysis. Urban Studies Journal, 15(3), 32-48.
Smith, J., & Johnson, M. (2023). The impact of migration on voting patterns in Ohio counties. Ohio Journal of Political Studies, 12(4), 65-78.
About the Author
Don Iannone is an author, speaker, and expert in economic development and public policy. He serves on the business faculty of Transcontinental University, a European Union-based university with a campus in Columbus, Ohio. Don's new book, "America’s Dream at a Crossroads, The 2024 Presidential Election and Beyond,” explains why the American Dream should be a defining in the upcoming presidential election. The book is on its way to becoming a bestseller. Since the book launched on July 8, 2024, Don has made over 50 media appearances nationwide about the book. Don holds a doctorate in philosophy and resides in Greater Cleveland. Book Don as a speaker.