Midterm election outlook: A return to divided government?

Congress has just come off one of their two scheduled six-week “recesses” between now and the midterm elections on Nov. 8. In fact, the House of Representatives is currently scheduled to be conducting legislative business for only 11 days between the August recess and the election. With a flurry of dealmaking and legislative accomplishment in the rear-view mirror, it seems that political pundits, policymakers, and prognosticators have turned fully to the coming election and the next installment of the “most important election of our lifetimes.”

Since our last update on the political winds, much has changed (Democrat-delivered bipartisan deals and partisan promises) and much has stayed the same (high inflation and low approval ratings). Those looking for an anomaly of the historical trend of a president’s party losing big in the midterms have a number of data points to give them hope. The Supreme Court decision to overturn Roe v. Wade is at the top of that list. This has energized Democrats who were severely lagging Republicans in enthusiasm to vote in the 2022 midterms.

Anecdotally, this trend has been backed up by voters in Kansas and New York. In Kansas, moderate Republicans and Independents joined Democrats to soundly defeat an initiative to allow for the outright banning of abortion 59%-41% in a ruby-red Republican state. While this will not translate one-for-one to Republicans voting for Democratic candidates over Republican candidates, it is a warning shot that abortion will be on the ballot in November. In New York, a Democrat ran a race singularly focused on abortion and won the special election in a swing district. Some say this is a clear canary in the coal mine race that should worry Republicans — and we agree.

In addition, the Jan. 6 committee’s public hearings that began in July, which many prognosticators (including ourselves) did not think would have any real impact, did prompt a slight shift in American’s views of former President Donald J. Trump.

Even so, conventional wisdom has been that the impact would be more focused on Trump and his viability as a 2024 candidate. However, the latest polling on the major issues on voters’ minds has “Threats to Democracy” as a top issue (21%) just behind the 30% concerned about economic issues — “Cost of Living” (16%) plus “Jobs/Economy” (14%).?

Having said all of that, two polls illuminate the headwinds that Democrats still face going into the midterms — the “Right Track/Wrong Track” poll as well as President Joe Biden’s approval rating. Both have been remarkably consistent, reflecting poorly for Democrats with nearly 70% of Americans currently believing we are on the “wrong track” and 56% of Americans disapproving of the president.

Headwinds for Democrats

In the last 30 years, research points to the fact that whenever a president’s approval rating was below 50% heading into the midterm elections, his party lost an average of 47 seats in the House and four or five seats in the Senate. Biden’s approval rating has been hovering around 40% and only lately has ticked up slightly.

Historical results of midterm elections

US House of Representatives

So, what do these competing trendlines mean for the House of Representatives? While there are a number of factors trending with the Democrats, there remains a number of factors trending against the Democrats. Political analyst and journalist Charlie Cook currently projects (1) 10 Democrat-held seats to be “Lean Republican/Likely Republican,” with another 26 Democrat-held seats considered to be “Toss-ups.” And given the slim, four-seat Democrat majority in the House, Republicans don’t need a wave to gain the majority. At this point it’s a numbers game, and the numbers still favor Republicans for control of the House of Representatives.

US Senate

While Biden and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-New York) have already made history navigating control over a 50-50 Senate for the longest period in history, they surely would prefer to increase their numbers and maintain a bulwark against a potential Republican House Majority. And absent the typical mid-term election rejection of those in power, they are likely to get that chance.

According to FiveThirtyEight, at the end of August Democrats were predicted to have a 65% chance of keeping their Senate Majority.(2) This represented a dramatic improvement over the summer — from 40% in June — as Republican primaries across the country produced candidates that some view as weak compared to their alternatives.

Looking more closely at a handful of Senate races helps explain why even Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Kentucky) seems to be a pessimist on his party’s chances of taking back control. In a Washington Post article published in mid-August,(3) McConnell is quoted saying there is “probably a greater likelihood the House flips than the Senate ... Senate races are just different, they’re statewide, candidate quality has a lot to do with the outcome.”

Take two states with incumbent Democratic Senators: Arizona and Georgia. Biden won Arizona by 0.3% and is currently 20 points underwater on his approval rating, but Democratic incumbent Mark Kelly is polling nine points higher than his Republican challenger Blake Masters. In Georgia, Biden won by an even smaller margin than in Arizona back in 2020 (0.2%), but Democratic incumbent Raphael Warnock is currently beating Republican challenger Herschel Walker by more than four points.

A similar scenario is playing out in the red state of Ohio. Trump won Ohio by more than 8% back in 2020, and Biden is currently underwater there by more than 23 points. Yet, in the open race to replace Rob Portman (R-Ohio), political newcomer J.D. Vance appears to be underperforming both in fundraising and polling — receiving $3 million compared to $21 million for Rep. Tim Ryan (D-Ohio). Vance is currently down by three points.

Everything can change between now and Nov. 8, but the conventional wisdom taking root in Washington is that America will have a divided government in 2023. What that means for Biden’s pending decision to run for re-election and for his chances to enact meaningful legislation, however, has yet to take shape. See you in November!

With contributions from Cogent Strategies, a bipartisan team of top-ranked government relations and strategic communications professionals committed to one goal: leveraging their unique talents, energy and experience to advance client agendas. Led by a veteran political strategist, Founder and CEO Kimberley Fritts, the Cogent team has deep experience crafting and executing fully-integrated, custom, and data-driven initiatives. Cogent Strategies marries policy substance with incisive storytelling – leveraging government expertise, public relations smarts, and digital savvy to deliver results for clients. Invesco is not affiliated with Cogent Strategies.

(1) Source: Cook Political, August 2022

(2) Source: FiveThirtyEight, August 2022

(3) Source: Washington Post, August 2022

Important information

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Header image: Hill Street Studios / Getty

There is no guarantee that predictions or forecasts will come to pass.

The opinions referenced above are those of the author as of Sept. 6, 2022. These comments should not be construed as recommendations, but as an illustration of broader themes. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future results. They involve risks, uncertainties and assumptions; there can be no assurance that actual results will not differ materially from expectations.