The Mideast Will Get Worse Before It Gets Better
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Today’s Agenda
These Are Dark Times
Listen, it’s been an absolutely dreadful week. So no elaborate intro today to find a clever way to explain what’s happening in the world. It’s bad, and you know it’s bad. And it’s likely to get worse from here. That said, on we go.
“Dark days lie ahead. Hundreds of thousands of Israeli troops are preparing to cross into Gaza, facing a bloody, street-to-street fight. Their stated goal is to destroy Hamas as a fighting force. Any nations that have the best interests of either Israelis or Palestinians at heart ought to help Israel to complete that task swiftly — and to find a longer-lasting solution once the fighting has ceased,” writes Mike Bloomberg , founder and majority owner of Bloomberg LP.
That effort begins with the US. “Almost without exception, lawmakers from both parties in Congress are eager to give Israel whatever it asks, from missiles to dollars,” Andreas Kluth says. “And that is as it should be, for Israel just became the victim of unspeakable barbarity and now needs stalwart support.” Yet nobody knows how long this bipartisan support will last. Already, Andreas can’t help but notice the parallels to what’s happened in Ukraine — including the hypocrisy of lawmakers who refuse to provide aid. “Putin’s soldiers and Hamas both torture, rape, kill, maim and abduct. Both in their own ways have genocidal goals and want to eliminate a nation — Putin the Ukrainians, Hamas the Israelis,” he writes.
Those Hamas terrorists “who murdered babies in their cribs last week weren’t stamped with pathological hatred at birth,” Francis Wilkinson writes. The brutality is “an acquired habit, the result of a process of moral dulling and rage sharpening. No doubt some foes of Hamas will now rejoice at the sight of Palestinian babies blown to smithereens in retaliation.”
Which raises a question that Bobby Ghosh tries to answer: “It is not unreasonable to wonder why the 2.3 million civilians living in the tiny enclave don’t flee to safer ground,” he writes. But the fact of the matter is that they can’t. Gaza is the “world’s largest open-air prison,” a 139-square-mile strip of land that’s approximately the size of Philadelphia, with a third more people. Israel wants to leave it with “no electricity, no food, no water, no gas.” The idea of escaping to safety with an infant in those conditions is a nonstarter, and that doesn’t even take into account the prospect of violence. Bobby points out that “not only do the Palestinians fleeing south run the gauntlet of Israeli bombs, but they also risk the wrath of Hamas,” which has shut the border before.
After Israel and its allies take down Hamas, Marc Champion says, “there are two paths that attempt to solve complex territorial problems such as the Israel-Palestine question typically take.” Path No. 1, “the route of absolutes, leads inexorably toward greater violence,” he writes. But Path No. 2 is indefinitely harder, involving the coexistence of two enemies in one land — a land that is enmeshed in a long history of bloodshed.
Bonus Reading:
Caroline in the City
I don’t know who needs to hear this, but if the dude in your serial situationship (who’s also your boss) owns a crypto exchange and asks you to be the CEO of his hedge fund side-gig — but gives you zero equity and expects you to do a bunch of illegal-sounding stuff and support his unhinged presidential aspirations — mayyybe you should just ghost him? Like, don’t even bother trying to quit your job as CEO — he’d get the message, eventually. What you shouldn’t do (under any circumstances) is go all Bridget Jones on him and fill your Google Docs diary with salacious details about your lovers quarrels. That would be bad! Even worse would be if you, I dunno, had the audacity to prepare not one, not two, but SEVEN alternate balance sheets to conceal the fact that you’re borrowing billons of dollars from customers and your boss/beloved is like, “Love to see the hustle, let’s go with Alternative 7!” Then — in the words of Matt Levine — “one of you is going to prison absolutely forever.” “Caroline Ellison smartly decided it wasn’t going to be her,” he says.
In case you forgot, we’re in the midst of one of the biggest fraud trials of all time. And Sam Bankman-Fried’s ex-girlfriend has been in the hot seat all week, divulging the details of her relationship with the FTX founder. Ellison headed up Alameda Research and has agreed to work with prosecutors by pleading guilty to criminal charges. Already, her testimony has been “pretty nuts,” Matt writes. She said SBF directed her “to commit these crimes” and had her trapped in a “constant state of dread.” She brought spreadsheets, tears and text messages to the stand, as well as this already-legendary list of “things that Sam is freaking out about.”
Inspired by this list, I created one of my own: Here are the things I’d imagine that Sam is freaking out about today, Day 7 of his fraud trial.
“When I started working at Alameda, I don’t think I would have believed if you told me I would be sending false balance sheets to our lenders or taking customer money, but over time it was something I felt more comfortable with,” she testified yesterday, arguing that Sam knowingly removed $14 billion of FTX customer funds. Today she faced a cross-examination in which SBF’s lawyers struggled to tarnish her credibility.
Now, you might be wondering: “Why is this trial happening in the first place? Shouldn’t Sam have just taken a plea deal?” As Matt has written: “Bankman-Fried didn’t take a plea deal because prosecutors never offered him one, and never would. Why would they? They offered plea deals to everyone else in Bankman-Fried’s inner circle, to get those people to cooperate and testify against Bankman-Fried, so they can maximize their (very good!) chances of convicting Bankman-Fried.” Now, his best defense is “it was all a series of good-faith accidents; we were just kids who didn’t know what we were doing.” Which, sure, FTX was god awful at accounting (see: Caroline’s seven balance sheets) but “not in a charming innocent way,” Matt argues.
How is Bitcoin behaving through all of this? As of last night, “the coin had fallen for the fifth straight session to trade below $27,000 for the first time since September,” Isabelle Lee writes, but some of that drop might have to do with the conflict in the Middle East.
“The saga of [SBF’s] hubristic rise and fall will doubtless soon be a movie; it’s already a contentious book by Michael Lewis, while Bloomberg’s own Zeke Faux has also chronicled the tale in Number Go Up,” Isabelle writes. Now we just get to wonder whether Margot Robbie and Jonah Hill will play Caroline and Sam.
Pigs + Kidneys = Pigneys?
The opening scene of the Beckham docuseries on Netflix starts with a pastoral image of the famous football player filling up a jar of honey while wearing a full beekeeper getup with his initials embroidered on it. He tells the camera he wants to call his honey “Golden Bees,” but his wife Victoria — AKA Posh Spice — is dead-set on “DBee’z Sticky Stuff.” Obviously, sticky stuff is superior in every way.
Also in need of a catchy nickname is pig kidneys, the latest crowning achievement of Crispr technology. “Doctors have spent decades dreaming of engineering pigs to produce kidneys, hearts, livers and pancreases that could function in humans,” Lisa Jarvis writes, but a biotech firm called eGenesis is improving the viability of the organs.
领英推荐
“Researchers have already done some human tests; several teams have transplanted engineered pig kidneys into brain-dead patients, where they’ve been able to demonstrate the organs have some function,” she writes, but so far those experiments have been one-offs. To get the technology to clinical trials, Lisa says the company needs to show its pig kidneys are safe and effective in a monkey for at least a year — a reasonable expectation, she argues: “Anyone volunteering for a trial would want to know the experimental organ would give them a real chance to gain meaningful time.”
If that day arrives, I imagine a few people might need some convincing before bringing home the bacon, so to speak. So should we call them pigneys? (Pigs + kidneys) Or porgans? (pigs + organs) I’ll leave it to you to decide.
Telltale Charts
Taylor Swift and Beyoncé weren't the only ones who decided to have a joint slay this week: Lionel Laurent says "Emmanuel Macron and Olaf Scholz’s boat trip along the River Elbe this week was a symbolic one for the European Union’s fractious Franco-German power couple — an attempt to find a shared direction through similar challenges." But unlike the girlboss pop stars, it’s going to take a lot more than a photo op and a fish sandwich for France and Germany to see eye-to-eye: “Despite this week’s friendly handshakes and solid show of support for Israel after Hamas’ attack, the two men are furiously paddling in opposite directions,” he writes. That’s a dangerous position to be in, considering both country’s economies are hamstrung by the war in Ukraine (and a lot of other complex issues) at the moment.
We’ve got two columns up on the latest inflation report, and both of them look rather … conclusive? I don’t want to jinx anything here, but it’s reallllly seeming like we’ve reached the last stop on the inflation strugglebus. The pace of price increases has slowed drastically from its June 2022 peak of 9.1%. Jonathan Levin ’s piece, “What I’ve Learned From Watching Powell’s Inflation Fight,” feels definitive, like writing HAGS! in a classmate’s middle school yearbook. For the past 19 months, Jonathan has spent his days opining on US markets as inflation hit its highest level in 40 years. “Naturally, I made mistakes in my early columns,” he writes, “but I’d like to think that I’ve learned a few things about 21st century central banking and inflation along the way.” Conor Sen 's column, “Hurting From Rate Hikes? The Fed Looks as If It’s Finally Done,” is equally airtight, arguing that market pricing, policymakers’ remarks and economic activity all point in the same direction: The Fed is likely finished raising interest rates. It’s been a long battle, but we’ve fought it together:
Further Reading
Growth in the working-age population has ended, but it’s not bad news. — Justin Fox
A recession!? Yeah, right — in your dreams. — Karl Smith
AI is about to remake the rules of international trade. — Tyler Cowen
Inequality between the Western Cape and the rest of South Africa is growing. —Alexander Parker
Some places are more in need of jobs than others. Does President Biden understand that? — Claudia Sahm
ICYMI
Can a banana heir save Ecuador?
Senator Menendez got indicted.
Young women are getting lung cancer.
Kickers
Bad Bunny pays a lot of rent.
The brain is high-res now.
This fruit is hard to come by.
The “ring of fire” eclipse is coming.
A Vermont town has banned influencers.
Notes: Please send pawpaws and feedback to Jessica Karl at [email protected].
This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.
Realtor Associate @ Next Trend Realty LLC | HAR REALTOR, IRS Tax Preparer
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