Mid Point 2021 ... how are we doing?

The last 18 months has spun the golf industry (and world) into uncharted waters. Now halfway through 2021 - how are we doing?

The golf explosion of 2020 could have been somewhat predicted given the circumstances - natural social distancing, golfers with time on their hands and alternative activities that command discretionary income shuttered.

However, I am not sure anyone could have predicted the deluge of patrons that would decent upon public access facilities and that private clubs would be exploding with waiting lists for the first time in decades. While rounds were up nearly everywhere nationwide - golf revenue was not in select markets, as well as clubs heavily dependent on F&B operations suffered greatly if not for PPP relief.

As the calendar turned to 2021 - industry experts predictions seemed consistent across the board - the great slowdown will occur. The above caption (although only with data through May) does not seem to reflect this … or, is this first half bump in rounds the result of courses closed by government shutdowns in late March until early June 2020 – now enjoying rounds in 2021? In my opinion … the answer is yes. What I am seeing is the softening of rounds in off-peak times, while core inventory interest remains extremely strong.

As we approach the second half of 2021 it will be intriguing to see the delta between 3-year historical; the abnormal 2020 actual when volume was at an all-time high, and the new 2021 golf community. My prediction (with all things being weather dependent) – we will eventually move towards a hybrid of 2020 and historical.

HOWEVER,

The lasting impact of COVID on golf has been the price reset on the value of golf!

By way of example – multiple public access properties in Greater New York City metro have reported to me APR (average per round) increases in excess of $15.00 per round versus the same historical periods. Private country clubs are once again implementing Initiation Fees and in general the golf consumer has and/or is becoming accustomed to the new economic realty of the industry.

It may be premature to predict if this continue – a slowdown of the US economy will dramatically impact discretionary income and therefore participation. Should this occur – the first operator to break rank and discount … will send us all once again down a slippery slope.

Would love to hear your thoughts … and how your club is doing.

Give me a call or drop me a line.

Allen

[email protected] or 717.554.8519

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