Mid-October Crypto Boost

Next week we are launching our long-awaited Market-Neutral Multi-Strategy!

The SwissOne Smart Defensive strategy has produced a 5-year CAGR of +28.9% p.a. If you've grown tired of the volatility in global markets, then this is for you.

The strategy is based on the mathematical principal that a large selection of uncorrelated assets will yield stable returns with a low probability of capital risk. And it has done just that with just a single down month in over 5 years.

A Meticulous selection of best-of-breed alternative strategies provide clients with a combination of unique asset classes rarely available in the market.

This is the only investment strategy that straddles both traditional finance and alternative investments with market neutral crypto strategies to produce high (3+) Sharpe ratios.

Clearly, we are excited! The strategy is a listed ETN making it easy to gain access. If you would like to find out more please get in touch with [email protected] or [email protected]

Interest rate cuts to cut Bitcoin’s dominance in half

We have spoken in-depth about interest rate cut cycle and the significant impacts it has had on crypto markets in conjunction with the Bitcoin halving. The impacts are likely to be:

1. Significantly higher BTC price 12 months from today,
2. Bitcoin dominance will be on the decline over the same period meaning that Alt coins are likely to outperform Bitcoin in this environment.

Markets are cyclical, they rinse, wash and repeat.

Both US Election Candidates are not supportive of positive Crypto regulations

In a turn of events this week, Harris finally came out with some direction in which she wishes to take the Crypto industry. While it certainly appeared politically and vote wins driven, for us, it was a clear sign of the sheer interest and adoption of the industry as a whole.

It is evidently clear by the way in which blockchain technology adoption is happening by large global institutions in-house across the US, that there are no other alternative innovations out there to the current archaic monetary system.

Therefore, global leaders must adapt to the “new new” and welcome new regulations based on new technology and NOT “adapt” old laws. The analogy of trying to put square pins in round holes is apt in this case.

Just look at the growth in the number wallets on-chain that have received USDT – the acceleration is astonishing:

With this shift by Harris while Trump’s chances of being elected have soared, the market has risen to meet this new potentially welcoming environment.

Does the Crypto market now benefit on either side winning the US Elections?

Debt levels and fiat supply charging ahead

In addition to interest rate cuts, on the first day of the new fiscal year, October 1, 2024, the U.S. federal debt surged by $204 billion, reaching a new record of $35.669 trillion. Additionally, the U.S. Treasury had to draw down its cash balance by $72 billion, leading to a combined deficit of over $275 billion in a single day (0.8% increase!!).

What does this spell? US Dollar supply INFLATION.

Bitcoin, with its deflationary supply mechanisms and fixed supply benefits versus the US dollar over time as the supply of USD outstrips that of Bitcoin.

Since 2020, the Bitcoin supply’s compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) was 1.68% p.a. while the US Dollar supply has a CAGR of 7.80% p.a. over the same period. Over the same period, the Bitcoin price grew to $70k from $7k.

There are no plans in place from any governments globally to curb this growth rate in global fiat currencies.

Chinese QE further signs of global fiat supply – is there a race to the bottom?

In September 2024, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) introduced several significant measures, including:

1. Cutting the key interest rate by 20 basis points, larger than previous cuts, to 1.5%;
2. Reduced mortgage rates and lowered the required down payments for home purchases;
3. Lowered the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) for banks by 50 basis points, freeing up more liquidity for lending;
4. Most importantly, a 500 billion yuan fund was set up to provide liquidity to financial institutions like securities firms and insurance companies.

What is even more gob smacking is that many analysts believe this may not be enough which was presented in the sharp rally and drop in the Hang Seng Index in recent weeks.

What is obvious is that the global economy once again is in need of significant amounts of money printing. We believe this plays massively into the hands of Crypto industry and further adoption in the coming years.

Are the stars once again aligning for a significant move higher in Crypto markets as we’ve seen in the past? 2025 is certainly looking bright from where we sit.

However, what could keep the US Dollar strong on a relative basis? War…

Geopolitical risks and the breakout of wars is historically very positive for the US Dollar and when you are printing loads of cash this is a good thing, why?

USD and US Bonds are a safe haven for warring countries and investors.

Overall liquidity challenges and breakdown of country economies forces people into seeking out safe dollars.

The US military strength and the US diversified economy makes the US Dollar resilient in times of war.

Interest rates are often lowered in places of war which enhances the interest rate differential trade as investors seek better risk/reward yields in the US Dollar.

Therefore, we believe the cloud of warring in the Middle East and Ukraine will need to dissipate to really unleash the next Crypto rally. Until then, risks remain and we are in for a volatile few months until the dust settles on how far leaders are willing to let this conflict go.

Bitcoin Technical Outlook: With the developments of war in the Middle East and in particular no retaliation as of yet on Iran by the IDF, the market managed to hold the neckline of the reverse head-and-shoulders before rallying to $68k (off the $60k support level we spoke of on the previous Boost). BTC has also broken out its 7-month descending trading range and therefore we remain in a buy-the-dip scenario. Buying levels come in at $65.5k and $63k. Key resistance in 2024 has been the $68k level hence the pullback since this level was tested in an overbought situation. The market has very much turned bullish technically and it seems it is just a matter of time before the next push higher.

Why SwissOne Capital?

SwissOne offers seamless access in to the Crypto Asset ecosystem via traditional market channels. Offering the Top 50 Crypto Assets momentum-weighted as well as Smart Metaverse strategies, SwissOne brings you direct and sensible exposure to this uncorrelated and high growth asset class. Operating with institutional-grade European financial service providers, there is a safe and secure passage from traditional markets into Crypto Assets.

If you would like to find out more, please reach out to: [email protected] or [email protected]

We recently hosted a WEBINAR where covered how Blockchain Technology will impact traditional industry and how investors can capitalise on it.

Top 50 Crypto Performance

(past 30 days-to-date)

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Top Research & Articles

Cointelegraph:?US spot Bitcoin ETFs see $556M inflows in biggest day since June Grayscale: Building Block: Bittensor

a16z:?State of Crypto Report 2024

COIN FOCUS

Brett?(BRETT– $0.10; ATH – $0.19)

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WHY

Brett (BRETT) taps into the rich lore of internet meme culture by bringing to life Brett, the legendary character from Matt Furie’s Boys' Club comic series. Just like Dogecoin and Shiba Inu, Brett capitalizes on humor and community engagement to drive its growth, aiming to create a lighthearted and inclusive crypto ecosystem. ? As Pepe the Frog’s best friend, Brett is known for his love of dancing and video games. Now, Brett has become the blue mascot of the Base blockchain, embracing the vibrant, playful side of Web3. Brett's mission is to unite meme enthusiasts, building a strong community of holders who champion his role as a mascot for the Base chain.

WHAT

Positioned on the Base blockchain, Brett has become the unofficial mascot of the platform, symbolizing the fusion of internet culture with cutting-edge blockchain technology. While Brett is primarily a fun, meme-driven project, its integration with Base's fast, low-cost transaction infrastructure enhances the overall experience for users. The coin serves as both a cultural tribute and a community-driven project. ?

HOW ?

Brett operates on the Base chain, which is a Layer-2 solution for Ethereum developed by Coinbase. Base was built to make decentralized applications (dApps) more accessible and scalable, and Brett benefits from this by providing users a seamless experience on the platform. ?

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