The Micro-Meso-Macro Strategies of the Hydrogen Market. **Published** by Oxford - See Link

*** Published Article *** Clean Energy an Oxford Publication in Volume 5, Issue 4, December 2021, Pages 634–643, titled "The micro–meso–macro architecture of a proposed collaborative emergent strategy for the hydrogen market".

Article Link:?https://lnkd.in/gxdc2ZCX

Introduction

In 2018 an inter-governmental climate change panel concluded to maintain a global temperature increases of less than 1.5DegC, net zero would be required by 2050 (IPCC, 2018). Since then over 110 countries have pledged net zero carbon ambitions by 2050 (UN News, 2021). To achieve these aggressive targets green energy will consistently represent larger annual proportions of global energy supply, storage, transport modes and process inputs into carbon intensive industrial industries. Hydrogen has been identified at national levels as key to succeeding in reaching this endeavour. Governments have pledged over USD $70B to further advance hydrogen infrastructure and technology, with early market entrants reportedly investigating over 200 hydrogen based projects expecting completion before 2030, totalling a value of USD $300B (HIR, 2021).

Regions like Europe are introducing importation carbon taxes to meet these aggressive targets whilst assisting domestic companies maintain local competitiveness, specifically against international companies in high carbon producing industries. Australia’s strategic trade partner countries, like China are expected to follow Europe’s lead, suggesting significant changes to the financial implications as a result of increased importance placed on social, governance and in particular environmental factors over the short, medium and long terms.?

This essay introduces the growing hydrogen market and within it the structural concept of micro-meso-macro architecture, to assist in discussing associated business strategies across multiple industries vying for strategic market position.

Today’s Hydrogen Market?

The current Hydrogen market is worth US$175 Billion and forecast to expand 240% to $420 Billion by 2030 (Frost & Sullivan, 2020) with market participants Andrew Forrest, and commentators McKinsey and Company forecasting a market value of $US12 Trillion and $US2.5 Trillion respectfully by 2050 (McKinsey, 2021). Despite global governments having identified hydrogen as key domestic energy security to date there is still significant progress to make across the complex value chains (Figure 2) to support a liquid hydrogen market.

Today’s 70 MtH2/yr pure hydrogen and 48 MtH2/yr of unseparated hydrogen predominantly fulfills the demand for oil refining (33%), ammonia production (27%) methanol production (11%) and other industrial purposes like steel production (Figure 1). In energy terms this equates to 330 Mtoe (Million tons of oil equivalent). Despite capabilities to produce hydrogen through low carbon technology, it’s currently cost prohibitive and production is predominantly from fossil fuels responsible for 830 MtCO2/yr. (TFOH).?

Figure 1: Todays Hydrogen Market (IEA, 2021)

In 2019, the largest importers of Hydrogen were China, Japan, Germany, the United States and South Korea (EOC, 2021) totaling $US9.9B, which supports Australia’s domestic hydrogen strategy ‘to supply over 50% of Japans and Korea’s imports by 2030 (NHS, 2020). International hydrogen trade to date however is limited with most deals based on bilateral agreements between industrial producers and consumers (Montel News, 2020). S&P Platt’s has commenced assessing hydrogen pricing structures for an independent, impartial evaluation, however, until an open traded hydrogen market and a dedicated exchange exists to attract liquidity the pricing structure will remain clouded. The chicken and egg scenario between the producer (infrastructure, transmission and distribution) and consumer, currently limit this active trade market. This is the key reason early adoption strategies take the appearance of a vertically integrated or a pre-defined closed loop value chain (Figure 2: Indicates the value chains within the current and future hydrogen markets).

Trading infrastructure development is gathering pace with Japan heavily investing in port, offloading and storage facilities with commissioning commencing in 2021. Kawasaki has developed the world’s first hydrogen transportation ship (Meliksetian, 2020) and together with Australian companies are in the process of creating the first international hydrogen trade route.?

Figure 2: Hydrogen Value Chains: Recreated & Updated from IEA, The Future of Hydrogen

The Micro-Meso-Macro Hydrogen Market

This essay proposes the emerging hydrogen market conforms to a micro-meso-macro architecture, a theory introduced by Dopfer, Foster and Potts for economic markets. (Dopfer, 2004).

• Micro: Refers to individual companies partaking in the hydrogen market. These companies set their own business strategies (Individual rules) and can be involved in multiple meso-systems as part of their strategy. They act like an individual cells within a multicellular organism (Meso).
• Meso: Refers to any closed loop value chain within the hydrogen market. This value chain acts like an organism where companies work together to maintain the health of the partnership. Meso systems can be represented by one or more companies as long as the value chain is closed.
• Macro: Refers to the population of the combined meso systems to create the complex hydrogen industry (The collective structure of systems).

By this definition the sum of the micro does not equal the macro (Figure 3). The macro is a result of the collective Meso systems within the hydrogen economy, however successful strategies and processes at a micro level can result in macro consequences (innovation).

Figure 3: Units, Systems and Collectives within the Hydrogen Market (See individual structures for the detailed structure explanation)

Micro

Companies are presently identifying their position within the markets complex value chains, proving technical concepts, and strategically staking out favorable positions within the market (Mintzberg, 1987). Governments are implementing hydrogen policies to support investment and industry growth allowing early adopters to commence planning including forecasting, analyzing, planning, setting targets and assigning resources in order to strategise (Mintzberg, 1994). Significant investment is resulting in rapid technology advances shifting business forecasts leading to liquid operational environments. As a result intended strategies need the ability to adapt and respond to unforeseen environmental influences (Mintzberg & Waters, 1985). Mintzberg & Waters introduced the emergent strategy, where increased market unpredictability exceedingly influences the realized strategy by introduced emergent strategies (Figure 4). The hydrogen market growth trajectory, technology advancements and constantly changing policy and funding environments (See strategic inputs) requires liquid strategies capable of taking advantage of the changing environmental inputs.

Figure 4: Emergent Strategy (Mintzberg & Waters, 1985)

Meso (Today)?

Early Hydrogen adventurers have utilized a new age collaborative strategy drawing on the core competencies (Prahalad and Hamel, 1990) of the collective, sharing and learning (Senge, 1994) to continuously absorb new knowledge and react efficiently. These Meso systems of one or more companies form a complete enterprise value chain, (Papazoglou, 2000) from the exploitation of energy sources, to the technology of producing, sharing, transmitting, distributing and consuming hydrogen.??

There are two types of meso system strategies identified;

• Vertically Emergent Meso Systems (One company)
• Collaboratively Emergent Meso Systems (More than one company)

Companies that vertically integrate throughout the value chain and consume the product they produce create a single unit meso system (Figure 6). However frequent technological advances and required breadth of knowledge generally result in core competencies being acquired from two or more companies, forming a mutually exclusive, collectively exhaustive collaboration of micro units.

Figure 5 introduces the concept of a collaborative emergent strategy and at its epicenter the SAIL principle, which follows an entrepreneurship structure, targeting continual progress, integrated processes, technology advances through iterations, risk taking and the reliance of teamwork in preference to hierarchical structures (Kaufer, 1996).?

Figure 5: Collaborative Emergent Strategy

• S: Share – Companies within the collective share their known and gained knowledge.
• A: Adapt – Companies adapt to the information shared, to improve the system.
• I: Iterate – Iterations in order to promote innovation and progression.
• L: Learn – Learn from each iteration, and manage via a feedback loop for the next iteration.

The collaborative emergent strategy draws on the collective to innovate, iterate, experiment, review and learn, (Lynch, 2000) producing value co-creation for the benefit of the participants of the meso system. The progressive importance and implementation of agile strategies promotes innovation (PMP, 2021) which is imperative during periods of rapid technology change (PWC, 2017) allowing systems to learn faster than the competition, sustaining any competitive advantages (Senge, 1994).

The majority of developed markets operate under normal competitive conditions, driving cost competitiveness where companies pass risk (capture value) through the value chain, however in a collaborative emergent strategy risk is shared (Huxham, 2005). This creates a buffer from external cost competition and product substitution between the micro (external companies), meso (external systems) and macro (external substitutes) market forces, reducing uncertainty and complexity in changing environments (Hilmersson, 2012).?

Figure 6: Meso System Examples. FMG (Multiple Vertical Meso Systems) & QNP Green Ammonia (Collaborative Emergent Meso)

Meso Evolution (2030 Onwards)

The collective of individual meso systems currently planned will construct the foundation of an integrated macro system, resulting in an increase of the observed connectivity between them. The resulting integration between meso systems will reduce barriers for entry, increasing competition and the influence of market forces. Those participants unable to effectively manage an emergent strategy to innovate, adapt and improve operational efficiency at a micro level, or participate at a meso level in a collaborative emergent system effectively, will lose market share from competing micro and meso market forces (BCG, 2012). At a meso level, the increased competition of derivative service or product substitutes will fuel innovation and improve efficiencies forcing the continued reduction in prices.

Collaborative Macro

The Macro system is a construct of the collective meso systems (Figure 3). The current detached infancy of completed meso systems means this macro system currently exists as geographically confined bidirectional agreements that predominantly service ammonia production and functional refining processes. Supported green hydrogen meso systems however are progressing through the concept, planning, execution and commissioning phases creating the foundation for an interconnected hydrogen market. Policies, incentives and grants are shielding the current market from competitive forces (Porter, 1979) however increased interconnectivity and the evolution of government support from hydrogen specific to green basket funding will result in the increased influence substitution and price competitiveness will have on the hydrogen market dynamics.

Macro collaborations like ‘The Hydrogen Council’ consisting of 109 of the largest and most influential companies from over 20 countries are supporting this macro development, promoting innovation to support future industry competitiveness against those that hold market position (Fossil Fuels) and those that target greater market influence (Solar and Wind).?

Macro Evolution (2040+)

Government support through various policies and incentives will continue to grow as aggressive carbon reduction targets from the Paris Agreement reach maturity. A key tool governments are using is carbon taxing, which effectively increases the cost of processes that result in the emission of carbon. Increasing clarity surrounding carbon pricing policies has improved the accuracy of analyst’s carbon forecasts. By 2030, ICIS, Energy Aspecs, Bloomberg and Refinitiv are forecasting a carbon price of $56-79 Eu/tCO2 by 2030 (SPGlobal, 2020). Longer term carbon prices are expected to increase further, to the point of carbon abatement as the transitional market matures.

Discretional support for isolated markets (I.e. Hydrogen) will transition to generic support for green technologies, inviting increased influence from market forces between green energy substitutes. Supported macro markets will transition into a competitive environment requiring the hydrogen industry to leverage macro emergent strategies to maintain competitiveness against open market forces. Industry positioning is already being observed with hydrogen biased corporations taking the fight to the battery industry questioning why it is considered green when it runs on fossil fuels (Andrew Forrest Interview, 2021). Despite this industry right arm jab Horowitz (2006) argued that sustainable mining can be completed successfully even if the resource is finite, if, the region being mined benefits after decommissioning (Joyce and Smith, 2003). Using this argument it is possible for gas, electric and battery (Lithium and precious metal mining) industries to be considered sustainable, supporting the expectation of increasing competitive market forces inclusive of substitution as market connectivity increases provided carbon capturing technologies are utilized.??

The World Energy Councils report points to the unpredictability of the pace of innovation, productivity, and international governance, as reasons for a collaborative yet competitive mix of substitutes to support the integrated supply of “energy for people and planet”. This suggests collaboration between technologies and global cooperation supporting sustainable economic growth and technology innovation will be required to manage the “energy trilemma” of security, sustainability and equity (WECR, 2016).

Key strategic Inputs

Geographical location

The international competitive supply of hydrogen is an equation involving multiple inputs, none more important than user delivery requirements (Gas, liquid etc.) and geographical inputs (availability of renewable energy and distance from point of production to offload). These constraints result in specific regions having strategic supply advantages into specific markets. Australia, United States, regions of South America, North Africa and parts of China exhibit secure access to renewables sources resulting in strategic geo-market advantages.?

Government Policy (Case Study: Japan/Australia)

Japan (Consumer): Actively supports the promotion of meso systems targeting the secure supply hydrogen for a forecast domestic demand of 10MtH2/year at a cost of $2/kgH2 by 2050. Clarity of domestic policies and long term targets supports trade route infrastructure development and associated meso systems. The resultant collective of systems increases connectivity, supports liquidity, promotes competition, reducing costs, and importantly secures domestic supply.

Australia (Supplier): Australia’s cost of hydrogen production is forecast to be $2/kgH2 with targets as low as $1.50/kgH2 by 2030, with landed prices to Japan and neighbors of $5-7/kgH2. Japans lack of renewables and importation of over 90% of current energy requirements results in domestic production costs of $6.5/kgH2 (TFOH). Price competitiveness, geographical location, economic stability and government structure strategically supports international trade between Australia and Japan.?

Funding (Case Study Yara)

Yara, a global ammonia production and trading company trades more than 30% of the world’s ammonia (About Yara, 2018). To support ongoing operations Yara received a joint 5 year revolving credit finance agreement worth $1.1B with 13 international relationship banks directly linked to 10% targeted reductions of GHG emissions (Reuters, 2019). This will result in a reduction of 2.2 MtCO2/year (Yara Corporate release, 2019). This financial structure is not isolated, increasingly financial institutions are requiring a linkage between sustainability practices and corporate purpose with institutions like ‘The World Bank’ targeting 35% of financing from 2020 onwards for the support of climate action initiatives (World Bank CAP, 2016). This will see a changing landscape to financial institutions lending requirements for project financial support in the future.?

Current Meso Costs and Forecasts

Hydrogen produced from natural gas (without carbon capture systems, CCS) known as grey hydrogen is cheapest at $1.00/kgH2 increasing to $1.90/kgH2 (Blue hydrogen) with CCS capturing 95% of carbon. Large scale hydrogen production from green electricity (Green hydrogen) currently costs $3-4/kgH2 forecast to drop to less than $2.00/kgH2 by 2030.

Distribution can occur as a gas, liquid, or as a molecule attached to heavier components increasing density (I.e. ammonia) delivered at a cost of $2.00-$7.00/kgH2 depending on the value chain. Conversion and reconversion costs are expected to be $1.00/kgH2 however the density of hydrogen liquid over gas increases by 10 times resulting in a tradeoff between methods.

It’s forecast by 2030 hydrogen will become the most competitive green solution in over 20 applications (Hydrogen Council, 2021) and the introduction of carbon tax (Forecast in 2023) across Europe ($30-50/tCO2 ) will time shift green hydrogens price competitiveness against both grey and blue hydrogen production. (HCR, 2021).?

Hydrogen Opportunities

Ammonia: Origin Energy and Fortescue are conducting feasibility studies into hydropower generated green ammonia, which, if both progress will require 750MW producing 670,000t/yr of ammonia (NH4) (Financial Review, 2020). Shipping costs of ammonia are less than $0.3/kgH2 when not requiring reforming by the end user. With ammonia CO2 intensity of 2.4tCO2/tNH4 ammonia has a current breakeven carbon pricing of $50-$100/kgCO2 (TFOH, 2020)

By 2030 demand is forecast to increase by 30MtH2 offering significant growth opportunities for participating meso units. The top importers of ammonia include India, 14.4% of the world imports ($775 million), USA - 13.7% ($737 million) and Korea - 7.44% ($398 million) (Trend Economy, 2019) with target growth markets expected in Korea and Japan.

Iron and Steel: The steel industry produces over 8% of the world’s CO2 emissions. Each ton of ore mined emits 12kgCO2 (Norgate & Haque, 2010). Australia’s iron ore to China in 2020 totaled 713Mt (Stockhead, 2021) amounting to 8.6MtCO2 emissions equating to a carbon value of $430M based on European forecast carbon prices ($30-50/tCO2).

93% of steel is currently produced via the blast furnace and basic oxygen furnace combination (BF-BOF) while 7% is produced via direct reduction-electric arc furnace (DRI-EAF) (TFOH, 2021). BF-BOF produces 14 times more CO2 than EAF, on average amounting to 1.4tCO2/t steel. Steel production from Australia’s iron ore results in more than 998MtCO2 and at $30-50/tCO2 this equates to $45B of CO2. Current BOF production costs estimated at $500/t steel when including $30/tCO2 makes competitive green steel pricing of ($545/t).

This represents an opportunity for ore miners to vertically integrate into the green steel market through early hydrogen production and consumption, effectively resulting in a closed loop meso system. Current clean steel production is calculated at $515-570/t reducing to $445/t through vertical integration and a hydrogen cost reduction to USD$1.4/kg (Hydrogen Council, 2021).

The European steel import market accounted for 25.3Mt of finished steel products in 2019 (Eurofer, 2020) valued at $10B with the majority sourced from Turkey, Russia, Ukraine and China. Of the 157Mt of European steel production in 2019, 60% was produced from BOF methods (Eurofer, 2020). The introduction of the carbon tax in 2023 (Estimated $30-$50/tCO2) offers a significant international trade opportunity for early adopters of green hydrogen steel production.

Road and Rail (Mining): Hydrogen for road and rail transport is currently price competitive against traditional fossil fuels however a lack of infrastructure is delaying uptake, offering opportunities for vertical integration into mining fleets. Benefits further improve if hydrogen production is geographically supportive. FMG is vertically investing in refueling infrastructure and self-driving hydrogen haulers for their mining operations and consumer refueling infrastructure in Western Australia. The refueling station will initially refill joint partner vehicles (ATCO, FMG, Toyota) however expansion capabilities will support the forecast consumer demand. (Stockhead2, 2020).

Pipelines, Electricity Storage and Power Generation

Increasing hydrogen allowances in pipelines known as hydrogen injection into the gas grid (HIGG) is currently under investigation in most states of Australia. Specific funding grants have been established for WA (Dampier-Bunbury NG Pipeline), NSW (10%H2 across all pipeline network by 2030) and similar for the South Australian and Victorian gas network. This will provide opportunities for early adopters, with H2 volume capacities likely to be limited.

These limited volumes open up entry opportunities for proposed infrastructure in feasibility stages, like that for AGIG, Macquarie and the likes of gas producers Central Petroleum for planned infrastructure like the Amadeus to Moomba Gas Pipeline.

Hydrogen consumption for power generation will commence in stages, utilizing current gas powered infrastructure to supplement its feedstock with hydrogen. Studies are being conducted confirming the percentage of hydrogen current power plants are capable of utilizing as part of the feedstock. Currently 20% of Australia’s electricity is produced by natural gas and this is expected to increase as coal power plants are retired (Taylor, 2020) representing an opportunity for dual fuel gas/hydrogen facilities.

Conclusion

The current transition to carbon net zero by 2050 is extremely ambitious and collaboration cross industry will be required in order to achieve this target. This puts a tight timeline on the development of an integrated international hydrogen market before market share is lost to other renewable substitutes. Continued policy support and financial grants from governments are supporting the approval of meso systems required to develop the foundation infrastructure for international macro market. Within these systems early adopters and market leaders at a micro level are strategically working to capture key market positions.

The hydrogen market offers immediate opportunities for vertical operators or collaborative emergent meso systems in the ammonia and steel industries with over twenty other expected price competitive markets by 2030.

As carbon prices are imposed on domestic producers and international exporters into participating countries green hydrogen competitiveness will continue to improve against its fossil fuel cousins. If this uptake of hydrogen technology is fast and wide enough its versatility gives it the potential to become the medium of choice for a number of industries, potentially reaching a total market value of over 12 Trillion by 2050.?

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