Michel Barnier, "Playing to win” or "Playing not to lose”?

Michel Barnier, the former chief negotiator for the European Union during the Brexit process, now faces a new and daunting political challenge. Drawing on his experience navigating the intricate corridors of European diplomacy, Barnier is turning his sights toward a central role on the French national political stage. His aim? To form a government of national unity, bringing together diverse political forces around a shared agenda and thus averting parliamentary deadlock. While ambitious, this plan is fraught with risk for several reasons.

Form Over Substance: Barnier appears to be focusing much of his effort on the composition of his government, at times at the expense of formulating a robust policy programme capable of addressing the economic, social, and geopolitical crises currently gripping France. That said, contrary to some of the more pessimistic forecasts, the country is not on the verge of bankruptcy, nor does it face imminent sanctions from the European Union or threats from financial markets—issues that plagued the UK during Liz Truss’s brief premiership. Moreover, recent drops in inflation and interest rates offer Barnier some favourable room for manoeuvre.

He is reportedly considering the formation of a "mosaic" government, primarily composed of figures from the executive, traditional political parties, and public institutions—all of whom have been involved in the management of the country at some point. This could reflect a degree of incompetence linked to the Dunning-Kruger effect, where individuals overestimate their expertise in a given field.

In this context, it seems likely that Barnier, while painting an increasingly alarmist picture of France's situation, may settle for a vague general policy statement designed to reassure the parliamentary majority. However, this minimalist approach may not be sufficient to stave off confrontation with disappointed, frustrated, and determined opposition parties, who will not hesitate to highlight the superficial nature of such a governmental project.

Navigating a Multiplicity of Stakeholders: A skilled negotiator, Barnier appears to be applying a technique often taught in business schools and tested during complex negotiations: the search for the "Best Alternative to a Negotiated Agreement" (BATNA). However, while his Brexit negotiations required managing only two principal actors, he now faces many political forces in France. The situation resembles the interminable negotiations of the Doha Round more than the relatively binary Brexit talks.

France’s political landscape is deeply fragmented, with sharp ideological divisions searching for a multiparty compromise that is particularly complex and perilous. Barnier will need to strike a delicate balance between parties with often opposing interests while maintaining the coherence of his project. It is a considerable challenge that will test his negotiation skills to the limit.

A European Model, Difficult to Transplant: Barnier, a committed European, seems to be drawing inspiration from the government coalitions seen in countries like Germany and Italy, where parties with different ideologies manage to govern together. However, transplanting this model into France’s Fifth Republic is a risky proposition. In France, internal tensions and ideological divides are more pronounced, and political compromises are often viewed by the electorate as signs of weakness.

Barnier's Leadership: A Strategic or Leading Role? : It remains unclear what exact role Barnier envisions for himself in this proposed government of national unity. Does he intend to lead from the front, or does he see himself as an architect working behind the scenes to secure its formation? His extensive European experience positions him as a natural candidate for the role of Prime Minister. However, his reserved and diplomatic style suggests that he may prefer a more strategic role, leaving the day-to-day management of the government to another political figure.

An Economic Gamble: Barnier seems to be leaning towards an austerity-driven economic policy, a choice that runs counter to the current need for economic stimulus in France.

In a climate where fostering growth is critical, his approach may seem out of touch, particularly as France needs to shift from being a "Europe of consumption" to a "Europe of production." Furthermore, his economic views diverge sharply from those of Mario Draghi, whose recent report advocates for a more proactive approach to innovation and growth. These differing perspectives underscore the tensions surrounding Europe's strategic economic direction.

The Absence of Fresh Leadership for a New Era: Now, more than ever, France needs to bet on authentic, independent leaders capable of rallying people around a collective and ambitious vision. These emerging figures, whom Barnier should actively seek from outside traditional political circles, must embody political renewal and inspire a collective effort grounded in shared intelligence, creativity, and adaptability. In today’s crisis-ridden environment, leaders' ability to adjust strategies in real time while maintaining trust in their decision-making processes will be crucial.

France will not overcome its challenges without inclusive, visionary leadership that can navigate contemporary disruptions while mobilising the next generation to help build the country’s future. As ever, France must "Play to win" rather than simply "Play not to lose."

Conclusion: A Monumental Gamble

Michel Barnier stands at a critical juncture in his political career. Will he choose the cautious path of "Playing not to lose”, or will he take the bold risk of "Playing to win"?

Forming a government of national unity is certainly an audacious move. However, for such a government to be both durable and beneficial to the nation, it must be supported by a clear and solid programme capable of addressing the French people's urgent expectations and revitalising the country’s economy in the long term.

The central question remains: Is France ready to accept a political compromise to avoid parliamentary deadlock, or should it embrace a bolder, more visionary form of governance? The decision Barnier makes will not only shape France’s immediate future—amid the risk of parliamentary censure—but also its role in Europe in the years to come.

In this equation, resilience and ambition will be vital qualities to enable France to assert itself fully. The stakes are high: Barnier must demonstrate that this is not merely about "Playing not to lose" but rather about "Playing to win" and securing a new, dynamic future for France.