Mexico’s Outlook in 2025 – Embracing Progress Through Plan México

Dear network of esteemed Clients and Partners,

As we begin 2025, we stand at an important moment for Mexico, a country that is not only undergoing significant transformation but is also positioning itself for sustainable growth and development. At the heart of this change is Plan México, a comprehensive strategy outlined by Claudia Sheinbaum that aims to elevate Mexico’s economic and social framework, ensuring that prosperity is shared across the country. In the following letter we would like to share our take on Plan México.

The vision behind Plan México is bold and forward-looking, as it seeks to pivot from a globalized production model to one focused on regional markets, value chains, and strategic long-term planning. This plan is about creating an inclusive, equitable, and sustainable future—where the benefits of Mexico’s growth reach every corner of society. With participation from all sectors—government, private industry, universities, and citizens—the country is setting a course for meaningful, collective progress.

The Progress Achieved So Far: A Strong Foundation for Growth

As we close out 2024, we observe positive economic figures, particularly in economic growth and attraction of foreign direct investment. Mexico has moved up from the 15th to the 12th position in the global economy, signaling an upward trajectory that places the country as an increasingly influential player on the world stage. The crucial question is whether Mexico is doing really well or other countries are struggling. It might be a mix of both.?

Notably, Mexico has become the United States’ top trading partner, surpassing China and Canada, which reflects the growing strength of our trade relationships. The reduction of poverty by 9.5 million people is another key success, with expectations for further improvements in 2025 (CONEVAL, 2023 Poverty Report). Additionally, the country has seen an increase in the minimum wage and a rise in formal employment and social security coverage, marking significant progress in improving the living standards for many Mexicans, although this might have to do with pressure from the USMCA partners.

Looking Ahead: The Ambitious Goals of Plan México for 2030

Plan México sets a compelling vision for 2030, with key objectives that aim to shape the country’s future. Among these goals are becoming the 10th largest economy in the world, increasing investment to over 25% of GDP, and creating 1.5 million high-paying jobs. Furthermore, the aim is to ensure that 50% of national production and consumption is "Made in Mexico," strengthening domestic supply chains and reducing dependence on foreign imports. We can observe by these ambitious goals being set that Mexico is feeling very proud and confident about its capabilities.?

Reducing the time required for investments from 2.6 years to just 1 year is another major goal that shall significantly enhance the country’s competitiveness. With a focus on increasing the number of professionals and skilled technicians by 150,000 annually, Mexico is building a workforce capable of driving innovation and fueling future industries. From our perspective this is a key strategy to a prosperous future.

The commitment to environmental sustainability is also a key pillar, with goals for reducing greenhouse gas emissions and providing financial support to 30% of SMEs. These objectives not only drive economic development but also create a balance between growth and environmental stewardship. Especially in the last few years, pollution and uncontrolled growth have been a serious issue in the country.

Strategic Priorities: Strengthening Key Sectors and Building a Resilient Economy

The strategies outlined by Plan México provide a clear path forward, with a focus on industrial growth, infrastructure development, and education. The plan emphasizes the relocation of companies and the promotion of national content in production, ensuring that Mexico becomes a manufacturing hub for the future. Polos de Desarrollo y Bienestar (Development and Well-being Hubs) are being created in key regions like the Istmo de Tehuantepec, which will become centers of industrial and economic activity.

Investments in infrastructure—such as the development of passenger and cargo trains, road connectivity, and airports—are set to improve logistics and make the country more attractive to investors. The energy sector, with a particular emphasis on renewable energy, is also undergoing a major transformation, paving the way for a more sustainable future.

Education and digitalization are at the forefront of Mexico’s future growth, with initiatives to improve the alignment between education and industry needs. Simplifying bureaucracy through a National Digitalization Law will make it easier for businesses to thrive in Mexico, while efforts to integrate scientific and technological advancements will position the country as a global leader in innovation. As in many countries, the Mexican bureaucracy has caused us many headaches in the past.

Challenges on the Horizon: Navigating Complexities with Resilience

As optimistic as we are about Mexico’s future, we acknowledge that there are challenges to be faced. Commonly known issues such as corruption, regional inequality, and security concerns still require continued attention and action. While Plan México offers a roadmap for addressing many of these challenges, progress is gradual, and it will require sustained effort from all sectors of society to achieve the desired outcomes. If those issues are not addressed we fear further social inequality that will create challenges in the long run.

The Plan México in various parts aims for big quantities and lacks partly the focus on quality. Nonetheless, we are curious to learn more about the nearshoring decree that will be published on January 17th.

Furthermore, geopolitical uncertainties and the evolving nature of international trade agreements present ongoing challenges that will require flexibility and adaptability. Especially the entry of POTUS Donald Trump on Jan 20th will be watched carefully, yet surprisingly more calmly than elsewhere.

A Vision of Optimism and Confidence

Despite these challenges, we remain confident in Mexico’s future. With the strategies laid out in Plan México, the country is poised to grow into a stronger, more sustainable, and more equitable economy. At Zeitgeist, we are committed to supporting foreign companies navigating this exciting but complex landscape. From legal and financial services to human capital management, we are here to guide you through the process of establishing and growing your operations in Mexico. Finding the right spot in a more and more complex world is crucial and we are excited to assist you.?

We believe in collaboration and that the collective efforts of the federal government, state governments, the private sector, and academia can shape a Mexico that stands as a beacon of innovation, prosperity, and inclusivity. For the upcoming year we invite you to actively shape the Zeitgeist of Mexico!?

Thank you for your continued trust and partnership.

Kind regards,

Jazmin Molina - Maximilian Gauland

Founding Partners at Zeitgeist Consulting Group