MEXICO: López Obrador unveils reforms in electoral power play
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With just four months until Mexico’s presidential elections, it would be reasonable to assume that all eyes would be on those competing for the presidency. However, Mexico’s President Andrés Manuel López Obrador is ensuring that is not the case.
On 5 February President López Obrador presented a package of 20 reform initiatives – 18 constitutional and two legal – in a bid to shore up his legacy and guarantee his control over the national narrative until he leaves office on 30 September and, likely, beyond. The reforms put the opposition in a difficult situation, leaving it vulnerable to criticism if it votes against initiatives that garner popular support and ensuring the ruling left-wing Movimiento Regeneración Nacional (Morena) dictates the priority issues in the run-up to the elections. The reforms are a further sign that López Obrador will continue playing until the final whistle is blown.
Broadly speaking, the reforms can be divided into two categories: those that benefit a certain sector of society, such as reforms related to pensions, welfare programmes
Pensions
Two reform initiatives relate to the pension system. One sets the state pension age at 65, down from 68. The other dictates that workers enrolled in the Mexican social security institute (IMSS) and federal public workers’ social security institute (ISSSTE) receive a pension equal to their full monthly salary on retirement, with a cap of M$16,777 (US$983) a month. The president states the pensions would be financed via a M$64bn fund created by savings made via other reforms (chiefly that to eliminate autonomous bodies).
However, analysts are sceptical. Citibanamex, the Mexican banking unit of US financial giant Citigroup Inc, released a report on 2 February in which it termed the pension plans “excessive”, calculating that the system could incur costs equivalent to 1.3% of GDP by 2025 and 2% of GDP in 10 years’ time. Others, such as Carlos Ramírez, the head of the national commission for retirement savings (Consar), have questioned how the government would pay for the reform.
Nevertheless, the parties making up the opposition coalition
Other reforms are similarly aimed at consolidating benefits for certain groups, in keeping with policies that have brought Morena much popular support. Two initiatives relate to the minimum wage. One dictates that the minimum wage must increase above inflation each year. The other stipulates that the minimum salary received by teachers, police, GN agents, soldiers, marines, doctors, and nurses cannot be less than the average wage of workers enrolled in the IMSS.
Final attempts
Electoral reform
The new reform contains many of the controversial aspects of the original, such as replacing the INE with a new body, vastly reducing the size of congress, eliminating the use of proportional representation, and lowering the participation threshold needed to validate referendum results. The government will be hard pressed to gain opposition approval for this reform. However, by presenting it again, López Obrador ensures the idea of reforming the electoral system remains on the agenda.
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Other controversial reform initiatives, such as those relating to the judicial system and autonomous institutions, have long been mooted. The judicial reform
A separate initiative would eliminate all “onerous and elitist” autonomous institutions that López Obrador claims were created to serve individual interests. The affected institutions would be the federal competition commission (Cofece), energy regulator (CRE), hydrocarbons commissions (CNH), and telecommunications institute (IFT), whose functions would be absorbed by government ministries. The reform would also dismantle autonomous institutes dedicated to transparency (Inai), evaluating social development policy (Coneval), and improving education (Mejoredu). ?
The political opposition has similarly criticised these initiatives as an attack on the separation of powers, repeatedly stressing that it will not back reforms that “dissolve autonomous bodies, weaken judicial power, or dismantle the democratic regime”. The opposition has also accused López Obrador of using the reforms to distract from other issues, such as recent reports alleging illicit campaign funding in his 2006 presidential campaign and the security crisis.
Welfare programmes
Several reforms look to ensure the continuation of President López Obrador’s flagship welfare programmes, namely the Benito Juárez education scholarships for the poor, the Sembrando Vida tree-planting initiative for small producers, and the Jóvenes Construyendo el Futuro apprenticeship scheme for underprivileged youths. Another initiative concerns the rights of indigenous and Afro-Mexican peoples, stating that they must be consulted about works that may affect their environment and allowed to present constitutional complaints about laws that impact them. In electoral terms, these reforms seek to re-engage voters from the targeted bases.
US relations
Two reforms relate to issues that are subject to ongoing disputes between Mexico and the US under the USMCA. One proposes elevating the status of the CFE to a “strategic public company”, meaning it would take priority over private foreign electricity providers. Congress rejected a constitutional reform to this end in 2022, while the SCJN struck down a suspended 2021 electricity bill on 1 February. The US argues such a reform would unfairly sideline US companies.
The other contentious reform proposes banning genetically modified corn in Mexico. The US has previously argued such a ban, a more diluted version of which was laid out in a February 2023 decree, is unjustified and would?? negatively impact US farmers and producers.
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