Mexican drought affecting produce supply and price

As we head into June, we wanted to provide a brief update on the current weather conditions in Mexico and their potential impact on our produce supply.

Understanding Drought's Influence

Droughts are currently a significant concern in agricultural regions, particularly in northern Mexico, where semi-arid areas cover about 50% of the total surface. The central forecasts correspond to a 10–20% decrease in mean annual precipitation, a 1.5 to 2.5?°C temperature increase, intensified incidence of heat waves, and a reduction in aquifer recharge. These dry conditions affect water availability, soil moisture, and vegetation cover, potentially leading to challenges in crop production.

The ongoing drought in Mexico has implications for the wider produce market. Reduced water availability is impacting growers, leading to potential supply constraints and price fluctuations in certain vegetable categories. Over the past 30 years, the Guadalupe Valley has experienced below-average precipitation levels for approximately 62% of the analyzed period. This corresponds to a deficit of 76—47% in precipitation compared to the historical average of 250 mm, indicating a consistent negative trend in annual and seasonal rainfall since 2005.

The fluctuation in yearly precipitation levels is influenced by events such as the El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacific Warm Decadal Oscillation (PDO). These climatic phenomena play a significant role in shaping the region's precipitation patterns over time.

Market Insights

• Zucchini and Yellow Squash: Limited supplies and increased demand may lead to price fluctuations in the coming weeks.
• Georgia Produce: Weather-related challenges in Georgia are affecting harvesting activities, which could impact supply chains if we add droughts in Mexican growing areas.
• California Lettuce: Cooler spring temperatures have delayed growth, but recent weather trends suggest a potential improvement in supply.

While we continue to monitor weather patterns and market dynamics closely, we remain committed to ensuring a stable supply of fresh produce to our customers. For those interested in a deeper dive into the impact of drought on agricultural production, we encourage you to explore the Nature article linked below.

Source: A temporal analysis of the consequences of the drought regime on the water footprint of agriculture in the Guadalupe Valley, Mexico | Scientific Reports (nature.com)