Is the Metaverse Already Obsolete?

The Metaverse was a hot topic at Mobile World Congress in 2022 but, after the 12% global drop in sales during last year, the hype around it has tailed off in 2023.?

This begs some immediate questions; is it doomed to failure and what exactly do we mean by the Metaverse?

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Defining the Metaverse

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Neal Stephenson, an American sci-fi writer coined the term ‘metaverse’ in his 1992 novel ‘Snow Crash’, so the term has been around for three decades.?It was used by Stephenson to describe a dystopian future where rich people would escape into an alternative 3D reality; a metaverse.?

Oxford languages defines it as follows:

noun:?metaverse;?plural noun:?metaverses

1. a virtual-reality space in which users can interact with a computer-generated environment and other users.

Doomed to failure?

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Although we often don’t think of it this way, failure is a precursor to success, and it is by failing we learn how to innovate and progress.?This is the essence of technological development, that seeks to continuously improve by building, measuring, learning, and iterating.?The same will be true of what is currently referred to as ‘the metaverse’.?

Over the last decade, virtual reality (VR) – the technology most associated with the metaverse – has seen significant growth and the speed of its evolution has been largely restricted by the pace of technological advancement.?The early 2010’s saw significant strides forward in VR technology, with companies like Oculus Rift leading the pack.?Accessibility and scalability usually only follow when the technology improves, and costs associated with using reduce.?VR includes both software and hardware components, and both need to advance to see widescale adoption.?According to Statista, the global market size for VR was valued at approximately $6.2 billion in 2020, an increase from circa $6.1 million in 2016, indicating a rapid growth in this sector.?This level of growth and an expansion in the number of sectors utilising the technology would suggest it is not doomed to failure but is somewhere along the downward curve towards the ‘trough of disillusionment’ described by the ‘Gartner Hype Cycle’.

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Evolving Definitions

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Definitions evolve, especially when concepts and technologies are nascent.?The current definition of the metaverse is too narrow and vague.?It must evolve and enable us to better understand what it is and what it will be capable of in the future.

In an article in Wired , Eric Ravenscraft asked his readers to try an exercise; “Mentally replace the phrase ‘the metaverse’ in a sentence with ‘cyberspace.’ Ninety percent of the time, the meaning won't substantially change.”

What Ravenscraft was getting at here is that the metaverse is broader than VR and isn’t limited to a single type of technology.?That can, and may, prove to be somewhat problematic.?Indeed, he goes further and suggests the term itself may become outdated.?I tend to agree.?And whilst we can sometimes get too hung up on terms and definitions, they are important in aiding our understanding, providing clarity, and communicating effectively.?

A more encompassing definition of the metaverse could be:

noun:?metaverse;?plural noun:?metaverses

1.????A unified digital universe blending virtual, augmented, and physical realities for interactive collaboration between users and artificial intelligence.

The internet, cyberspace, the metaverse; it’s all evolving.?The underlying infrastructure and content of the modern internet will be utilised by a range of technologies – VR, AR, MR, XR, IoT, blockchain, AI – to create more immersive, interactive, and integrated experiences.?

Virtual Reality and the Metaverse: Potential and Pitfalls

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Virtual reality is often painted as the primary channel for experiencing the metaverse. Its immersive nature lends itself to creating digital experiences, from virtual meetings to virtual property tours but the usability of such experiences has often been found wanting. ?VR technology, both hardware and software, is still maturing, and – on the back of the pandemic – the trend has been more towards real-world connection rather than fully immersive experiences.

From a software perspective, creating realistic and engaging VR environments requires significant computing power beyond our current capabilities.?On the hardware front, VR headsets can be expensive and uncomfortable, particularly when used over extended periods of time.?Both software and hardware factors can contribute to disorientation and motion sickness, which along with all other factors create barriers to widespread adoption.?In April 2022, I bought myself an Oculus Quest 2 and used it a few times for about a month before putting it back in the box and hidden at the back of the cupboard, where it has remained ever since.

The announcement of Apple’s VisionPro concept will likely see a clamour of expectation and talk about what is possible in the future, but the hardware will need to evolve to become more lightweight (which it will) and – for the moment – is too expensive for most, particularly where many use cases beyond gaming are still to be properly validated.

Expanding the Metaverse Concept

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Many other technologies, such as AR, MR, Holograms, IoT, blockchain, AI, and any web-based platform providing a multimedia and multisensory experience, including real-time interaction, may be considered as a metaverse technology.?

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These technologies have been around for some time and have proven successful in numerous business applications, from multimedia video-based virtual tours to IoT-enabled smart workplaces. ?These solutions negate the need for a fully immersive VR experience and offer more accessible and practical solutions for businesses looking to leverage the benefits of greater convergence between our physical and digital worlds.

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Finding the Right Fit

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As technology continues to evolve, it is important for businesses to consider what problems they’re trying to solve and what technologies best fit.?A successful digital transformation doesn’t mean adopting the latest or most hyped technologies.?It’s about validating the problem and applying or designing the most appropriate solutions.

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For example, if you are a hotel and your goal is to connect with more customers in multiple global markets, you can achieve this remotely through a video-based virtual tour such as E X P L O R E , which is more effective and cost-efficient than developing a fully-fledged VR experience or hiring people on the ground in various local markets.

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While the promise of a fully immersive VR metaverse may be exciting, it's crucial to approach it with a clear understanding of its current limitations and the range of other technologies that fall under the metaverse umbrella. As with any technology, the value of the metaverse for businesses lies not in the technology itself, but in its ability to solve real-world problems and deliver meaningful value to users.?That all begins with a proper and thorough validation process to understand the holistic nature of the business problem.?It’s surprising how rarely this is done.?Instead, everyone rushes towards the latest hype, wasting time and money.?Don't get hung up on the technologies when it comes to innovating... focus on truly understanding the problem.