The Metaverse: Is it all Hype?

I remember the day I knew VR/AR technology would change the world: It was when I first saw the Kickstarter page for the first Oculus Rift, Developer Kit 1 back in late 2012.?A decade later, it feels like a good time to reflect on how far we have come and ponder what the future holds.

My belief is that humanity has entered into a new technology cycle comparable to the 18th Century industrial revolution.? Back then, the economy was reimagined with machinery and steam engines.? This fundamentally changed our labor output, transportation capabilities and accessibility of information. ? Similarly, the current technology revolution is being driven forward by advances in immersive technology (VR/AR), artificial intelligence and blockchain.? The combination of all three will also change how we work, communicate and travel.??

Back in the VR early days of 2012, I was part of a very close and niche community of VR early adopters.? The community rejoiced with every new hardware announcement and raced to download every indie developer demo that became available.? There was an insatiable appetite for advancement and major technology firms invested billions with the hope of a quick return on investment.???

By 2016, the early VR developer kits had transformed into the first set of consumer-available devices.? VC money poured into the industry and a couple of startups started making money.? Devices like the HTC Vive and Oculus Rift for the first time provided fully functional virtual reality technology to the masses.? This was enough momentum for me to personally abandon my original civil engineering profession and co-found a VR/AR startup called The Glimpse Group.??

Today, The Glimpse Group has grown to be one of the largest enterprise software providers in the industry and VR/AR technology has seen solid success in various industry verticals.? The most success has taken place in the main vertical of gaming.? Facebook/Meta has figured out a way to provide a fully functioning, stand-alone, VR headset for $299 and adoption is skyrocketing.? The niche communities of 2012 have grown to a generation of gamers that understand the power and value of virtual immersion and for most of them, there’s no turning back.?

In regards to enterprise applications, currently marketing and branding is leading the way.? It is easy to understand how 3 dimensional visualizations can help sell products.? Whether users are taking a virtual tour of a home, trying on a hat or placing a new Ikea couch in their living room, consumers see the value and again, there’s no turning back.? In addition, many other use cases are right around the corner including training, collaboration and entertainment.??

Mobile phone companies also realize that tech advancements for everyone’s favorite personal electronic device are starting to slow down.? For example, many of today’s high definition displays have exceeded the resolution that our eyes can actually see.? Phone companies need to evolve their products in order to continue selling innovations, so the telco industry is betting that immersive technology hardware will be the next new thing to sell.

So back to the original question, Is it all Hype?

A few months ago, the topic of “metaverse” went viral again.? VC’s doubled down by pouring more money into the industry and many of the same conversations about the immense potential of the tech flooded our news feeds.? Unfortunately, I believe too much of that conversation has revolved around get-rich-quick NFT schemes and over-ambitious near-term projections. ? The new reality is that immersive technology is here to stay but it will still take some time for it to mature.? The technology firms are not giving up on the potential. The VR/AR community is increasing in orders of magnitude and the advancements in the tech will continue to improve the experience.??

I know my passion for the technology will never go away and I embrace the fact that the ultimate potential for VR technology far exceeds what future phones will be able to do.? However, I also think it is important that everyone be realistic about technology time frames and invest their time and money wisely based on solid knowledge about where we are today and an educated understanding of where it will be in the future.??

My prediction is that five years from now, the phones in our pockets will be very similar to current technology, however, the VR/AR hardware and ecosystem will be unrecognizable. The form factor of VR headsets will be greatly improved, computational performance will skyrocket with the introduction and advancement of cloud processing and the overall community size will increase from the current 10M users to 50M.? In regards to AR wearables, the industry will still have a long way to go, but we will finally have the introduction of several consumer wearable AR glasses.? This will signal the start of a migration away from our mobile phone screens and towards a new world where technology and information seamlessly blends into the real world.