Since selling my 4th Technology company last April, I've had a lot of time to support my new startups and spend time focusing on the AI, Blockchain, Crypto, NFT, Meta world (in that order). I also have 2 high-end VR machines and use them (notice I didn't say "play them") almost nightly when I'm not traveling. My investments and companies over the last 20 years have all been focused on what I call "The Enterprise Front Office". And all focused around "Digital Transformations". All this, since I left my Mechanical Engineering job at Procter & Gamble in 1997 to literally "Chase the DotCom Dream".
2022 is 2002 all over again. It's the remake of a new Digital Age, not unlike the remake of the world with the WWW Internet as it came to Commercial in the late 1990s. With one big difference. This time it's only going to take 2 years. Its happing 10x as fast. Just like the last 20-year Industrial Transformation which also happened 10x as fast (1822-2002 vs 2002-2022).
Everything is already in place. Sure, there are some things to still iron out, but trust me when I say this is MUCH MUCH farther along than you think (unless of course you are in this industry already). We all will be interacting with the Metaverse by 2024. Don't believe me? That picture above is not an advertisement. It is the MarketCap of NFTs popular and purchased within the last 1 hour. Yes, the market cap of Mutant Ape Yacht Club is almost $1 Billion. And that much is being bought/sold on NFTs right now! Have you ever heard of OpenSea? You will. This month.
I was putting all the pieces together one night this week and thinking about how it is all coming together and so fast. And I woke up at 3am last night and had to take down my thoughts. Pasted below are those thoughts. I hope you enjoy (and see what I am seeing).
And, Yes, that is part of my current NFT collection. You can find it on OpenSea.io under username "rshearn". My absolute favorite is SupDuck. I always call(ed) my kids and their friends "Shit Bird" when they did something stupid. One of them found this for me to purchase.
One last thing. I don't mention much here about AI. However, I spent the last 7 years with AI/ML working with Watson (while running IBM's $1B+ Commerce business recently), and with several of my Investment/Board Companies. I have lots to say here, but I'll save that for another post.
- Populations grew when a currency was established so banks and post offices could get started (and eventually trains, trucks and airplanes).
- Sure there was robbery and scams but eventually it cleaned up.?Through the help of the law.?
- People starting owning or leasing land to build.?
- Banks became trusted by the people and they grew. The better innovators consolidated the laggards.?Monsters were eventually created. JPM, BofA, Citi.
- Other financial instruments were also created to support spending (a consumption economy). Mortgages, insurance, equities.?All established to grow wealth.?
- Businesses grew and needed both Marketing, Sales and Back Office infrastructure. They also needed outside governance to ensure investor safety.
- Entire support industries were created from Retail to Transportation to Communications to Construction to Sports.?All meant to support wealth growth and promote lifestyle improvement and productivity.
- This brought us to the world we have today.
- Digital (and decentral - DeFi) currencies are are being established (crypto), the banks have gone live (Binance, Coinbase, Crypto.com), and most importantly the post office is built, open, and coming down in costs every month (blockchain minting and api calls).?
- Digital currencies are consolidating with clear leaders, trusted top banks are also surfacing. Blockchain is growing with hashgraph and smart contract technology.?The infrastructure is in place.?
- Secondary financial instruments are being released quarterly/monthly. NFT (Bored Ape Yacht Club is stable and worth $1B already), Swaps, Lending, blockchain bridges like Polygon are all already built and running.?
- Land is being bought (Decentraland, Metroverse, Sandbox)?
- Digital Societies are built brought together via Gaming, VRChat, and Discord.?
- MetaRetail is being built. And big names are doing it (Sony, Walmart).?
- Supporting infrastructure is being built (Facebook/Meta, Twitter, PayPal, Discord) to bring this to the general Public
- Sports games are being live 360 degree filmed and simulcast in the Metaverse (NY Nets)
- On Ramps from Fiat Currency (EUR, $USD) to crypto is already established and gaining steam.?
- Off-ramps eliminating banks are also gaining steam. You can transact directly in Crypto now with no need to convert to Fiat currency through banks.
- Governance is being established, but it’s happening decentrally. Governments are lagging in establishing controls.
- Government taxes will likely go way down as more and more money trades digitally without boundaries.?What does US vs Denmark vs Germany tax have to do with transactions in the ETHer? ?
- Governments will likely print more and more money to fund itself with declining tax revenues. This money will only make its way into the boundary-less ETHer as people move this printed money to Crypto/Digital Blockchains (along with their own).
- Capital will eventually flow boundary-less and limitless. Tax authorities will struggle to capture their share as money is being moved between Digital assets by the minute.?Governments that restrict ability to move Digital currency will lose Capital to those who allow Digital Assets to flow seamlessly and without tax constraints.
- Profits will be made on the currency for sure, but the largest profits will be made by building the infrastructure and supporting entities (blockchain, metaverse, communication).
- The world will be unrecognizable in 5 years as everything goes Digital.?
Go-To-Market Strategy, Execution, and Messaging | Keynote Speaker
3 年Good read. Thanks for sharing. We agree that the underlying technology's applications will create real value and revolutionize a ton. I still think most NFTs are digital baseball cards.
Creativity & Quality
3 年I've yet to see hardware that's completely comfortable for different eyesight and can also be worn for extended periods of time. This may be one of the main challenges to mass adoption of the Metaverse.
Customer-focused Product & Program Management Professional | Expert in Driving Strategic Decisions and Long-Term Customer Success | Cross-functional Leader Bridging Business + Technology
3 年Great read. Thanks for sharing.
Really depends on how you define "Metaverse". If it's an immersive Ready Player One type Metaverse, then I'd say the answer is a pretty definitive "No, not in 3 years" and I have very specific reasons why that's the case. (Although we'll eventually get there) If it's a continued expansion of Roblox/Fortnite/Horizon Worlds type experiences into the VR/AR realm while plugging into public permission-less blockchains (Bitcoin, Ethereum, Chia, etc.) or their layer-two networks (Polygon, Arbitrum, Starknet, etc.), then almost certainly yes. I'd hesitate to throw DeFi into the Metaverse vision simply b/c it's already here and doesn't need to be tied into VR/AR to become a cornerstone of people's lives over the next 3 years. The Metaverse will certainly be connected to the entire DeFi ecosystem, but regardless of how long true immersive Metaverse applications take to develop, DeFi is already transforming the system out from underneath people and businesses. (No Metaverse required!) For example, today you can actually walk into a Bed Bath and Beyond (and many other retailers) and pay with numerous cryptocurrenices thanks to the Flexa Network(https://flexa.network/) and it's integrations with PoS system providers like NCR. Just simply tell the cashier you'd like to pay with a gift card and then show them your phone to scan the barcode. As simple as paying for your coffee at Starbucks! What's fascinating about this is (1) there is a good chance that the cashier doesn't even know their system supports cryptocurrency payments and (2) it is not just that consumers benefit from the convenience of paying directly with cryptocurrency holdings (BTC, ETH, USDC, GUSD, etc.), but perhaps more importantly, merchant fees are greatly reduced. Whereas VISA/Mastercard charge somewhere on the order of 4-6% per transaction for small retailers, Flexa is only around 1%. Talk about disruption! In your last section, "What else could happen", you start really hitting on the implications of the big transition underway. (i.e. Fiat based financial systems under sovereign control to a completely decentralized, global and digital financial system that interlinks all countries, businesses, and individuals.) The US Dollar is in the process of losing its reserve currency status, gold is being demonetized, and global debt is somewhere on the order of $400 Trillion and growing. All of this provides upward price pressure on Bitcoin and the related crypto ecosystem as investors (both retail and institutional) seek refuge from inflation and currency devaluation. This will provide the resources for fundraising and financing new businesses and infrastructure that will power the Metaverse. I absolutely agree that the really big opportunities are still yet to come. I could go on and on about the transformation taking place, but this is already too long. If you want to talk further feel free to hit me up and we can dive deeper. I'll also hook you up with an Urbit planet to add to your NFT collection. ??