Messaging the Uncertainty
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If there is one thing that pokes its head frequently to disturb the normalcy in a company, it is Uncertainty.? When the leadership team messages the uncertainty well, the teams continue at peak performance.? However, if the message is not crafted well, it could push the team either towards A State of Panic or towards Complacency.??
In this article I highlight the What, Why, and How to “Message The Uncertainty” based on many research articles, a book from Nobel prize winning economists and my own experience over two decades of leading and observing teams.
What?
Almost every leader understands the “What”.? Many studies have proven that the brain works at optimal performance when it is at the right level of uncertainty ([1], [2], [3]). ? If we completely remove the uncertainty and the associated stress, the teams could move towards complacency.? Likewise, unmanageable uncertainty could lead to cognitive impairment and increased anxiety.? As shown in the figure, teams are most creative, motivated and productive when most of the team members are “In the Zone”.? Over the last 20+ years, I have seen many instances where entire teams misinterpreted the message from the leadership team and either lost their competitive edge due to complacency OR painted a doomsday scenario and left the company.??
It is imperative to understand that a severely negative message doesn't mean it pushes the team towards a state of Panic.? A team can still receive negative messages and handle it with equanimity if the scope for substitutions of the message is zero! ?
The Why
Nobel prize winners, Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky, in their seminal research on Behavioral psychology ([4] [5]), classified thinking into two parts:? System 1, that is intuitive & fast and System 2: Rational & Slow.??
They found out that if a message is addressed to “System 1”, people could substitute the message with something else which they can easily comprehend and justify their internal thought process.? The subconscious mind uses the “availability heuristics” [6] (information that is readily available to the mind) and very quickly leads to irrational conclusions.? Once that happens, the emotions take over and the “emotional tail wags the rational dog”.
Whereas if the message is addressed to “System 2”, and provided with the “right data for decision making”, they reach the right conclusions with conscious effort.
That brings us to the question “How”!??
The How
“ If a human judgment can be replaced with a formula, we should at least consider it.” - Dan Khaneman [5], [7].
Well… before you use “System 1” to jump to the conclusion that it is not practical in a team setting, let me address this message to “System 2”!!
Any time you and your team evaluated a situation with conscious effort, you would have weighed the Pros and Cons, searched/asked for more information, added some metrics and deliberated it slowly.? That is system 2 at work.??
When we need to “Message the Uncertainty” to a team, we need to use some simple formula that can kick start System 2 thinking in all members of the team
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For example:
Uncertainty of a pilot deployment = (Weighted items over which the team has control - Weighted items over which the team has no control).
Uncertainty of Customer A buying our product = (Weighted reasons why they need it - Weighted reasons why they don’t need it).
The Reference point
This brings us to one critical factor that is often ignored.? Prospect theory[8] suggests that people use their existing Reference Point when evaluating the probability of success (gains) or failure (losses) of an outcome.? So understanding the current reference point of the team/company is pivotal in messaging the uncertainty as the collective thought process would be biased by their existing state of mind.??
In Conclusion:
Understanding when human judgements work well and when they don’t is critical in “Messaging the Uncertainty”.? When it is critical to message the uncertainty and slow down the thought process, it is better to take some time to frame the message correctly.? Great leaders put conscious effort to send the right messages that continue to keep the company at peak performance.? With practice, this becomes second nature.
Bibliography
[5] Thinking Fast and Slow: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thinking,_Fast_and_Slow
[6] Availability Heuristics: https://www.simplypsychology.org/availability-heuristic.html