Merry Christmas Technicals: Market Hits Eighth Week of Record Highs, Surging Despite Midweek Volatility.
Major Indices Week of December 22, 2023
The “Magnificent Seven” 2023
Market Surges for Eighth Consecutive Week, Setting Records Despite Midweek Volatility
Stocks continued higher with most of the major indices settling higher for the eight straight week. The Dow set an all-time record high close on Tuesday the 19th, just prior to the critical cycle timing of Wednesday/Thursday. The huge intraday crash in Wednesday’s timing was attributed in large part to Zero-Day options and light holiday volume. Prices ended the Santa Claus Rally week with the S&P 500 settling just shy of its all-time record-high weekly close of 4766.16. The S&P 500 Index Total Return Index did set a record high the past week. ?The Dow set a new record-high weekly close, the Nasdaq Composite Is still shy of its record weekly high set 13 November 2021 at 16057.44 but the Nasdaq 100 set an all-time record-high on the week, while the FANG set a record closing high as that market is now up 96.22% on the year. The 2023 market has been driven by the “Magnificent Seven,” seven big tech stocks that have jumped 75% on the year, rallying three times that of the S&P 500. The end of the week was hinging slightly on the CPI report with some predictions for a crash following the report. Instead, CPI minus shelter came in at 1.4% for the sixth consecutive month below 2%. Manufacturing has exploded to record highs, up 71% YOY, while at the same time, interest on US Public Debt has nearly doubled since early 2021. (Charts from Charlie Bilello) ?Needlesstosay, the price ebullience has translated into extreme greed in the sentiment indicators.
On the week, the secondary market held pace with the large caps. The RSP:SPY weekly still looks like it ?has room to run as it comes off some extreme lows set this past fall although the RSI is now showing a frothy reading..and the spot Dow futures/Russell daily chart is reaching oversold conditions.
RSP/SPY Weekly
Spot Dow Futures/Russell 2000 Futures Daily Ratio
52-Week A/D Line
Market Sentiment Reaches New Highs with Greed Dominating
Sentiment has moved into greed/extreme greed readings. Last week in the AAII Sentiment Survey, Optimism Rises to Highest Level in Over Two and a Half Years. The VIX was higher on the week, likely due to the Zero-Day fiasco on Wednesday. The Put/Call ratio moved up 0.74 but still reflects extreme greed. The 52-week, A/D moved higher to +5.25% which is the highest reading in over a year and indicates extreme greed. The Dow closed the week up +0.22%. The S&P was up +0.75%. The Nasdaq ended the week up +1.21%, the FANG moved to an all-time record high close up +1.35% and the Russell closed up +2.46%. The bond closed slightly higher, with the 30-year futures set the highest weekly close since 24 July 2023. The CRB was up +0.98%...crude oil closed higher, in the middle of the weekly range while gold rallied to test the current weekly high close of two weeks ago. The CoT shows big liquidation by speculators last week along with dealers selling and commercials buying. It is difficult to believe the NAAIM data but, assuming it is real, it has the potential to hang out at high levels as long as prices stay in an uptrend.
Timing Points ?
The next timing date is Thursday and marks minor timing. The next critical timing point falls January 8-9, 2024.?
CNN Fear & Greed Index
AAII Investor Sentiment Survey
领英推荐
Dow Jones Industrial Average Hourly HLC
Dow Jones Technical Analysis: Key Levels and Targets for Short-Term Outlook
The Dow hourly is neutral on Friday’s close. Wednesday’s critical timing point intraday high of 37641.3 is pivotal now. Resistance is 37424/37428 and 37534. A rally over 37534 should retest the trading high of 37641. Closes over 37641 can renew momentum toward the upside targets of 38378.5 and 38454.7. Closes over 38454.7 suggest a move to long-term targets at 37095. Closes over 37095 offer counts to targets at 40245.4.
Support is at 37252, 37073 and 37009, 36812, and 36616/36610. Closes under 36610 should test 36387 with potential to 35611. A breakdown under 35611 can carry to 34984 with potential to critical short-term support of 34357/34350. Closes below 34350 setup a move to 33581. Closes under 33581 open counts to 32462 through 32327. A breakdown with closes under 32327 is bearish and opens counts into the 31565/31555 area.
Dow Jones Industrial Average Weekly HLC
Resistance
Support
S&P 500 Cash Index?
S&P 500 Technical Analysis: Key Levels and Scenarios for Near-Term Outlook
The S&P hourly is neutral on Friday’s close as the cash index sits just under its record highs. Just like the Dow, Wednesday’s critical cycle timing intraday high of 4778 is pivotal now. Rallies back above 4760 should retest the 4778 area. Closes over 4778 should carry the index to the record highs at 4818.62. Closes above the record highs opens counts to 4952/5000 with potential to 5144. Closes over 5144 set up a drive to 5288 with counts to 5432. A breakout over 5432 will open potential to the 5720 area.
Support is at 4717, 4697, and 4679/4678. A breakdown under 4678 sets up a move to 4649 with potential to pivotal near-term support at 4619/4616. A breakdown under 4616 should test 4520. Daily closes under 4520 count to 4440 with potential to critical short-term support of 4361/4355. Daily closes under 4355 set up a move to 4262 with potential to support at 4103/4102. Daily closes under 4102 open counts to critical long-term support of 3917/3910.?
S&P 500 Index Weekly HLC
Resistance
Support
Attended University of Eastern Finland
1 年Lead representative Dan McKee and First Woman Susan McKee made an announcement on Friday wishing everybody in Rhode Island a magnificent and blissful Christmas. Read More- https://rb.gy/vpnct5