Merchanta Market Insights - 8 Aug
It is safe to say that July has finally seen stabilization of the freight market ex Russian ports. Currently most Shipowners, Operators, P&I clubs have formed their minds regarding 'to call, or not to call' Russian ports, so the list of potential performers (albeit a short one) for that trade will hardly undergo notable change.
Freightwise the difference between voyages with and w/o Russian ports amount to 30%, in some rare cases to 50%. While during Q2 Charterers faced difficulties finding tonnage and were ready to fix literally any dwt with any dates, now they feel more confident. Bearing in mind the last few weeks' decline across all desks, a turning point where we'll see Russian-callers supply exceeding demand may be at hand.
Grains of Black Sea is already a highly propelled story. Looking upskirt of overall positive sentiments is not so attractive however. Essentially the situation is simple: severe lack of cargo orders as spot sales are few and rare due to political reasons, bank issues, currencies. Remind you that grains are regional freight drivers, according to its rates all other commodities shipments are being attuned. Moreover, grain season in Black Sea begins in July and usually August freight rates are close to year's peak.
Since late July till beg of Aug we've seen rates for Handy-size voyage to EMED loose abt $7-$10 pmt, downward trend continues.
领英推荐
Handy - Wheat - Novo - Iskenderun - $25 pmt
Handy - Wheat - Novo - EgyptMed??- $27 pmt
To fail on subs becomes all too frequent even for top Charterers and 'sub-sale cargo vs firm cargo' proportion is overgrown. GASC and other state's tenders periodically emit a good number of indications with Sept-Oct laycan, but that is almost all activity we have now on the freight market of Black Sea.
Almost no one of the market participants expects things to change dramatically during August. We consider signs of freight market improvement occurrence in second half Aug with proper season start at September to be the likely scenario.