Memorable 2014 Lecture by Dr. Ralph Buultjens

Diplomat Jim Patterson with Dr. Ralph Buultjens at New York University, September 2014

(Jim Patterson note: I reprint this 2014 report as many issues remain relevant, especially the U.S. bystander status in world affairs.)

Dr. Buultjens spoke on?World Politics: Hot and Cold Wars??and?examined current events in order to provide greater understanding for today in "the longer flow of history." He noted we are in a rare historical moment of process reorientation. The current global conflicts must be seen in a balance of power context. He said wealth and innovation have determined power among nations.

Resentments over past human rights abuses have emboldened violent reactions from a number of world players, including Islamic State terrorists.??"The conquest of the planet," he said, "has been by whites." 84 percent of the world was white by World War I.?

Gradually, he said, resentment grew against America due to its powerful economy, and its political and technical leadership?of the world. The lecture was given on the 13th anniversary of the September 11 2001 attack on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon.

For the first time in 500 years, Buultjens said, the West's political strength is challenged?by an Islamic threat. He also noted the huge non-Western population in the West and mentioned jihadists may be among us.?

The situation in Ukraine is a fight between the US and Russia, he said. "It is an effort to rearrange the power structure of the world."?This is an intense long-term process with uncertainty and?tensions about superpower resentment. (Jim Patterson note: In 2021, Russia still threatens Ukraine. The U.S. is a powerless bystander.)

Current global affairs are great disturbances with layers of complexity, complications, and difficulties, he said. Things are oscillating with neither good/bad times lasting?long. He sagely stated one overriding global reality: Big fish eat little fish.

Dr. Buultjens sees peacekeeping institutions as largely ineffective given the number of invasions in the world. He did not specifically mention the United Nations. President Obama, he noted, has declared war on jihadism. (Jim Patterson note: To what effect?)

At stake today is global order, a stable Middle East, the U.S. Empire, and the security of Israel. In all cases, the stakes are high, Buultjens said.?

History is not taking place in Latin America, Africa, or India but in four power centers that will determine the future of world politics in the 21st century. (Jim Patterson note: China's border conflict with India and China's vast "investments" in Africa, show China's history is on the move. Again, the U.S. is a bystander.) ??

The Middle East is collapsing, he said, due to invasions, terrorists, Arab Springs,?Muslim disagreements, the ongoing and escalating Israeli/Palestinian conflict,?and civil wars in Syria and Libya.?These conflicts are affecting U.S. policymaking, Buultjens said. (Jim Patterson note: President Biden failed to build on President Trump's progress (Abraham Accords, Israeli/Palestinian, Saudi Arabia, etc.).

In sum, the Persian Gulf is a snake pit, Buultjens said. The security of Israel and the threat of export of jihadism to the U.S. are major concerns. (Jim note: Many U.S. Senators urged President Biden to keep a small military presence, estimated at 2,500 troops, in Afghanistan to maintain control and keep ISIS at bay.)

Regarding the?Israeli and Gaza conflict, the Arab neighbors are quiet. (Jim Patterson note: Until Trump reversed failed policies.) He said "99 percent of the noise" comes only from the U.S. (JP note: In 2021, continues to be the case.) ?

A resolution of the Palestinian conflict would be to Israel's benefit, Bulltjens said. (JP note: Trump resolved it.) But the Israelis are not going to be pushed around by the Palestinians or Palestinian supporters in the U.S. or Europe, he cautioned.

Regarding the export of jihadism to the U.S., Buultjens said the U.S. cannot fight ISIS alone and needs an anti-ISIS coalition such as Britain, France, Australia, all Western allies, and Saudi Arabia. No Islamic state is committed against ISIS, therefore he said, the U.S. can't do much as it will be seen as an anti-Islamic crusade.??

Regarding Iraq, "there we go again," he joked, pondering if we "will?have to destroy it to save it." He said ISIS is less a threat, at 30,000 "troops," than was al-Qaeda.

In Iraq, the army ran from ISIS "troops" and, he noted, the US-trained the Iraqi army. He sees ISIS growth in the immediate future. (Jim note: In 2021, we see ISIS growing in Afghanistan.) ?

He sees a growing global nuclear proliferation in North Korea and Iran. He suggested an anti-nuclear coalition is more important than anti-ISIS coalition.

He thinks the U.S. cannot effectively, nor economically, be the policeman of the world. (Jim note: In 2021, Dr. Henry Kissinger agreed. Former U.S. Rep. Barney Frank wrote an op/ed where he reached the same conclusion.)

Dr. Buultjens advises Obama to seriously readdress Russia?"Czar" Putin. Buultjens said Putin thinks he is a czar.?He declared, "PUTIN IS NOT A NICE MAN."

China's ten years of growth have been phenomenal. He said they've played off the politics of others and noted they are a net gainer in globalization with over 1 million Chinese in Africa and investment across the U.S. AND, he stressed,?China is a friend of Israel. He declared: "China is the Superman of the 21st century."

China's future, he said,?depends on 3 critical questions.

1.?Can China control its freedom movement. China can't be a little bit free just like a woman can't be a little bit pregnant. Will China conform or will it be more restrictive and give the world more Tiananmen Square protests like in 1989.?

2. China wants a bigger place in the global economy and has the potential to upset financial markets with its huge cash reserves.

3. Can China control its heartland. Border unrest could destabilize the country. The U.S. practices soft containment of China and relations?need better diplomatic management.?

Managing U.S. foreign policy today is a terrible job, the professor said.?

He pondered, "Is the U.S. a great nation in decline?" If Greece and Rome fell, who is immune, he asked.?

In the U.S. he sees?growing discontent in society and politics. Government is unpopular with the people, he said, and they want to know?why should the U.S. be nation-building with so many problems at home, including underfunded infrastructure, services, etc. He noted foreign nationals were far?better educated?than U.S. workers.?

No nation is in a better position to lead the world than the U.S., he said.?"We have the innovative minds, our energy situation has vastly improved, our population mix is the most favorable in the world, nations traditionally like to ally with the U.S., and the U.S. is more open to social change than elsewhere in the world.?

Voting, Buultjens said, should be easier. "A higher voter turnout in 2000 would have elected Al Gore not George W. Bush. What a difference that would have made in world politics."

"We are at an extraordinary moment in world affairs. The U.S., Russia, and China will impact the world for decades to come.

"In the stream of history there is crap and champagne," he said. In other words, good times and bad times are constant.??

The lecture lasted one hour. No Q&A. Estimated audience 800.

Bio Note:?Ralph Buultjens is a professor at New York University and the former Nehru Professor/Professorial Fellow at the University of Cambridge.?He was awarded the Toynbee Prize for Social Sciences in 1984.Selected Publications:

Conceptualizing Global History?(with Bruce Mazlish, 2004)?

The Destiny of freedom: Political Legacies of the Twentieth Century?(Louis Nizer lecture on public policy, 1999)

Politics and History: Lessons for Today?(1986)?

The Secret Life of Karl Marx?(1985)

Jim Note: I enjoyed reading Conceptualizing Global History edited by Buultjens which I read while studying at Georgetown. I agreed with his arguments that historical awareness was vitally needed as we move into a global era. The book was dedicated to global history to inform and direct policy.