A Mega Media Company Waves the White Flag...

Three Headlines Coming Soon - Part II

But First, and totally related…

In a move this week that got way too little attention, NBC announced that all 210 network affiliates would soon be given a home on its Peacock+ streaming service. Let that sink in for a moment. NBC is owned by Comcast, the largest cable company in the United States. With this move they have effectively raised the white flag, loaded up the moving vans, and begun the very real wind down of local television’s relationship with cable. The end of an era for sure. As recently as 2010, 90% of television homes in America were cable TV subscribers. Today, that number is around 55% and falling.

On the one hand, it’s a very positive move for local stations which, up to now, have looked increasingly like the forgotten waif, nose pressed against the glass, watching a party to which they were not invited. On the other hand, it represents a rapid escalation of the transition away from the broadcasting business and a thrusting onto a medium most stations are nowhere near prepared to compete on, and here’s why: With the party invitation comes the stark reality, now in full view, that success or failure of local television will rest totally on the shoulders of each station.

In the new world order of streaming, premium network programming and live sports will be available directly to the consumer. The previously exclusive and cushy role station’s occupied as the required “middle man” to access NFL Football, the Olympics, and premium, prime time programming, for all intent and purpose is over and done. From here on out, each station’s reason for being, their continued existence, will rest on news, local programming and, maybe, a handful of syndicated shows if they’re lucky enough to own the 3-4 that still move the ratings needle.

The Obstacle Course That Awaits…

Two other factors to consider: This en masse move to streaming by local stations will greatly impact the current economics of the business. First, the lack of a comprehensive measurement tool for streaming makes advertising rates tough to calculate and sell. Nielsen (ugh) and others are working on a system but right now, and for the foreseeable future, there’s still a wild west aspect to the revenue side of ad supported streaming. Then there’s the issue of re-transmission fees currently paid to networks and stations by cable and satellite operators. For a lot of stations those fees account for nearly 50% of their revenue and are literally the difference between profitability or a whole lot of red ink on the balance sheets. Keep in mind these fees have already been deemed unsustainable by the likes of Dish, Charter, Optimum, Comcast, et al, as their subscriber bases shrink daily to new lows. The move of local stations to streaming platforms will, no doubt, be the catalyst to a rapid - off the cliff style - reduction of those fees. To date streaming networks do not offer anything close to that kind of retrans fee structure. That’s a significant problem.

The second issue has to do with what the stations have to offer the streaming audience. Let’s be honest, local news on television hasn’t been relevant to the majority of media consumers for a very long time. Audiences are overwhelmingly older and growing smaller by the day. Take away the big-time programming and live sports exclusivity station’s have enjoyed up until very recently, and the numbers will most assuredly get even worse. And that brings us to the second future headline prediction in our series…

#2 - Hello Wayne’s World! Local TV Redefined

For the few who may not know, Wayne’s World is a 1992 slapstick comedy starring Mike Myers and Dana Carvey as, among other things, host and sidekick, respectively, of a public access cable show in Aurora, Illinois. The film, I was going to say parodies, but in many ways accurately, depicts a little known yet fascinating slice of broadcast history that I believe may hold the key to survival for local stations.

Public access programming was born in the late 1960s, early 70s, as cable was beginning to take hold in this country. The FCC mandated, as it does to this day, that all cable systems of any size offer several local channels that would be accessible to, and programmed by, the general public. I think it’s safe to say they had no idea what the general public was capable of or how twisted, bizarre, and downright scary some that programming would turn out to be.

There were shows about Satan. Many, many shows about Satan. Shows about sex. Many, many shows about sex. And a lot of stuff very much in the Wayne’s World mold like Let’s Paint TV, a Los Angeles based production described by LittleVillage.com like this:

“This show’s host, John Kilduff, is the king of multitasking. While painting and running on a treadmill, he takes calls from viewers, makes smoothies and cooks other foods, and sometimes plays ping pong or shaves his face. This frantic parody of Bob Ross’s painting program is meant, according to Kilduff, to inspire creativity in others, but most of the show’s callers make fun of his paintings, call him a wuss for not running fast enough or yell gang affiliations and expletives.”

A few of these shows became so popular with their niche audiences that they were adapted for mainstream TV and/or had their premises stolen by Hollywood producers looking for something new. I would suggest, however, that the true influence of public access is best on display in places like YouTube and TikTok. Watch an episode or two of Good Mythical Morning on YouTube and you’ll see what I mean. The show was launched in 2012 and is still going strong. GMM’s YouTube channel has 18 million subscribers, more than 8 billion video views, and provided the foundation for an impressive media business for creators Rhett McLaughlin and Link Neal that rakes in more than $20 million per year.

There are some practical commonalities between the public access shows from back in the day and many of the current YouTube/TikTok success stories. They are unique, raw, target a niche, and they do it all for very little money, meaning the bar for success is relatively low. All things that would seem to be important considerations for local stations going forward.

But wait, there’s more. The history of public access programming really has more to do with hyper-localism than it does the weird and wacky. in fact, most of the shows deal with legitimate issues that just don’t get any attention from the 35,000 foot focus of the mainstream media. And, here’s the other thing. Public access on cable is under seige as more and more operators lobby the FCC to remove the burden of providing those channels as part of their service citing the declining economics of the industry on the whole. Crisis = Opportunity…

Go Ahead…Put the Toe in the Water!

What in the world have you got to lose? Why not take that dead in the water Noon newscast or the last hour of a stagnant morning show, the dozy snoozer at 5pm maybe, and create a hour of your own style of public access? Hold auditions for the Great Community Talk Show. Create the new local version of the Ted Mack Amateur Hour, or for those of a younger persuasion, America’s Got Talent. Let it be raw, real, rough and ready. At the very least you’ll attract some attention and maybe, just maybe, find a lifeline to continued relevance in the process.

A Notable Note…

Another news item this week that didn’t get nearly the play it should have, was the television audience for mid-term election coverage on November 8th. In spite of the buildup, all that seemed at stake, the rhetoric, the infinite number of campaign ads and network promotions, the audience was down 32% from the 2018 mid-terms. I’m pretty sure the decline was not based on a lack of interest but instead is a clear indication of how people are seeking and consuming news now. Anecdotally, I had more than a few people tell me they’re primary source that night was an APP on their phone. Welcome to the present and future.

By the way…as you may have heard, for the first time in just about forever, CNN finished dead last among the news networks on election night. Oh how the mighty…

Google…are you listening? Of course you are.