The Mega Caps bubble on the verge of landing
Whenever the economy slows down, as is the case in the USA with the collapse of the economic surprise index, inflation slows down, as yesterday's reassuring figure shows. As a result, expectations of a Fed rate cut are beginning to take hold: the 60 basis point cut by the end of the year seems significant...
Paradoxically, however, this sequence of events is leading to a rebalancing of the markets. Most of the coast needs the rate cuts:
Finally, the Mega Caps, the super-growth stocks, up by more than 30%, are giving up part of their performance in favor of the other companies, which are buoyed by the prospect of lower rates. In the wake of this Mega bubble, bubbles on the fall of the yen and the rise of Japanese equities (+24% since the beginning of the year) are imploding.
Whenever macroeconomic news is disappointing (within limits), the market rebalances and stabilizes. That's the paradox of this summer.
Comparative performance in 2024 of Growth and Value styles in the United States (source: Bloomberg)
Comparative performance in 2024 of the 10 largest caps and the S&P Equal Weight (source: Bloomberg)
Trends in S&P 500 sector performance on July 11 after the fall in inflation (source: Bloomberg)
US economic surprise index (source: Bloomberg)