Is the meeting between Somalia, Egypt, and Eritrea cooperation or a gang against Ethiopia?

On October 10, the Presidents of Somalia, Egypt, and Eritrea met in Asmara in a strategic alliance against Ethiopia.

Relationships between the trio and Egypt have deteriorated over the years despite the 2-decade civil war between Ethiopia and Eritrea ending with the signing of the Declaration of Peace and Friendship with Ethiopia's Prime Minister receiving a Noble Peace Prize in 2019.

Also, The 2 years civil war in Tigray deteriorated the relationship again as the latter has been lukewarm about the accord that ended the fighting in November 2022 after Ethiopia's aspiration to access a Red Sea port became public.

Egypt, on the other hand has long conflicted with Ethiopia over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), which Ethiopia is building on the Nile. Egypt fears the dam will reduce its water supply, making it critical for survival.

Somalia has traditionally been backed by Ethiopia in its fight against the terrorist group al-Shabab. However, Somalia is angry at Ethiopia for signing a deal with Somaliland (a region Somalia claims as its own) to use its coastline. This dispute has pushed Somalia closer to Eritrea and Egypt, strengthening their alliance.

In Late August, reports indicated that Somalia had received a historic military aid from Egypt including 2 Egyptian C-130 military airplanes, the first in over 4 decades after the 2 countries signed a defense pact.

More military hardware from Egypt was subsequently delivered last month. About 5,000 Egyptian Military personnel would also be deployed in Somalia to train Somali forces, as they expected another 5,000 troops to join the AU-led mission (Aussom) in Somalia in place of Ethiopia’s 3000 troops.

This was Sisi’s first visit to Asmara, while the Somali president had already been three times this year. In January Somalia's president visited Eritrea saying " I also came to brief His Excellency about the recent dynamics of the region.

Our region is very volatile. I just came to share with him the perspectives of Somalia about the region. So it was information-sharing and briefings with each other that we did frequently."

And so what?

Although Eritrea's Information Minister said the meeting was only about cooperation between the three countries denying an attempt to bring haters together to put pressure on Ethiopia to withdraw its deal with Somaliland, the outcome of the meeting was clear despite not mentioning Ethiopia.

"We are not determined to instigate anything against Addis Ababa," he told Focus on Africa.

Eritrea, bordering the Red Sea, perceives this as a strategic threat, fearing it may lose leverage over Ethiopia.

Summary of the outcome

1. The leaders emphasized the importance of international law for regional stability, especially respecting sovereignty, independence, and territorial integrity, while opposing any external interference in the region's affairs. They also agreed to coordinate efforts for regional stability and promote sustainable development.

2. The countries committed to enhancing cooperation to strengthen Somalia’s institutions in addressing internal and external challenges, enabling the Somali National Federal Army to combat terrorism, protect borders, and uphold territorial integrity.

3. The summit reached a consensus on several key issues:

- The Sudan crisis and its regional impact.

- Somalia’s situation in light of recent developments.

- Security and cooperation among the Red Sea and Bab al-Mandab coastal states, recognizing the importance of this maritime passage.

- Mechanisms for diplomatic coordination and joint efforts between the three nations.

4. Eritrea and Egypt’s efforts to support stability in Somalia were praised, and Egypt’s offer to contribute forces to peacekeeping efforts in Somalia was welcomed.

5. To foster strategic cooperation, it was agreed to form a joint tripartite committee of the foreign ministers of Eritrea, Egypt, and Somalia.