Meet Europe’s coming military superpower: Poland - Poland accepts Germany’s Patriot offer
Politico. "While Germany, traditionally America’s key ally in the region, ... Berlin’s endless debates over how ....have hampered its effectiveness as a partner..".
Meet Europe’s coming military superpower: Poland
Warsaw is turning to major arms deals with South Korea to establish supremacy in Continental Europe.
BY?MATTHEW KARNITSCHNIG?AND?WOJCIECH KO?? -NOVEMBER 21, 2022
When a stray?missile?landed in a Polish border town last week killing two people, some European leaders worried as much about how Poland’s right-wing government would react as they did about the possibility that Russia had ordered the strike.?
Poland’s longstanding distrust of all things Russian and the current government’s deep antipathy toward Moscow triggered concern from Brussels to Berlin that Warsaw might do something rash.
Instead of losing its nerve, however, Warsaw was stoical, placing its armed forces on alert, while also keeping its powder dry until there was clarity about what happened. (The conclusion is that it was an air defense missile fired by Ukraine to protect itself from a Russian attack that went astray.)
That calm was born of a simple reality that has for years passed most of Europe by: Poland has what is arguably Europe’s best army. And it’s only going to get stronger.
Poland’s paranoia about Russia prompted it to eschew the prevailing?Zeitgeist?across much of Europe that conventional warfare was a thing of the past. Instead, it is building what are now on track to become the EU’s heftiest land forces.
“The Polish army must be so powerful that it does not have to fight due to its strength alone,” Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki?said?on the eve of Poland’s independence day.
It’s a shift that has resonated with Poland’s indispensable ally.?
“Poland has become our most important partner in continental Europe,” a senior U.S. Army official in Europe said, citing the crucial role Poland has played in supporting Ukraine and in shoring up NATO defenses in the Baltics.
While Germany, traditionally America’s key ally in the region, remains a linchpin as a logistical hub, Berlin’s endless debates over how to resurrect its military and lack of a strategic culture have hampered its effectiveness as a partner, the official said.
As Germany continues to debate the details of what it calls the “Zeitenwende,” or strategic turning point triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Poland is already making substantial investments.
Warsaw has said it will raise its target defense spending from 2.4 percent of gross domestic product to 5 percent. Meanwhile, Germany, which spent about 1.5 percent of GDP on defense last year, is debating whether it can maintain NATO’s 2 percent goal after it exhausts a €100 billion defense investment fund it approved earlier this year.?
Mazovian muscle
Polish Defense Minister Mariusz B?aszczak?pledged?in July that his country would have “the most powerful land forces in Europe.” It’s well on its way.?
Poland already has more tanks and howitzers than Germany and is on course to have a much larger army, with a target of 300,000 troops by 2035, compared with Germany’s current 170,000.
Today, Poland’s military is about 150,000 strong, with 30,000 belonging to a new territorial defense force set up in 2017. These are weekend soldiers who undergo 16 days of training followed up by refresher courses. They were initially seen as a bit of a joke, but Ukraine’s success in using mobile militia equipped with anti-tank and anti-aircraft missiles now makes the idea seem much more sensible.
“Today, those doubts have disappeared,” B?aszczak?said?during a recent swearing-in ceremony for new territorial troops.
Unlike Germany, which struggles to attract new troops, Poland’s recruiting drive is gaining attention.
“The Poles have a much more positive attitude towards their military than Germany because they had to fight for their freedom,” said Gustav Gressel, a former Austrian military officer and security scholar now with the European Council on Foreign Relations. “In military circles no one questions the quality of the Polish army.”
Whether Poland’s military might will translate into political influence in Europe is another matter, however.
So far that hasn’t happened, in large part because the centrist forces that dominate the EU distrust Poland’s government, which is controlled by the nationalist Law and Justice Party (PiS).
The ongoing?tug-of-war?between Warsaw and Brussels over what the EU sees as the government’s disregard for democratic norms and the rule of law has damaged the country’s reputation across the bloc.?
“Poland boxes under it weight politically because of its internal conflicts,” Gressel said, highlighting the infighting that exists even within PiS over the country’s direction and how far to go in compromising with Europe.
The one thing Poland’s fractious political parties can agree on, however, is the necessity of strengthening the military.
While concerns about Russia spurred that push, Warsaw is also worried about the reliability of Washington. Unlike most of the rest of the EU, however, their concern isn’t that Donald Trump will return as president, but that he won’t. Despite the deepening cooperation between the American and Polish militaries in helping Ukraine, Poland’s current leadership remains distrustful of President Joe Biden, who as a candidate?referred?to the country’s government as “totalitarian.”
Made in Korea
Even as Washington has welcomed Poland’s defense spending pledges, there are also questions about whether Warsaw will really follow through, as well as?frustration?that the country is turning to South Korea for some of its biggest purchases.
Poland signed a 23 billion z?oty (€4.9 billion) deal for 250 Abrams tanks from the U.S. this spring — a quick replacement for the 240 Soviet-era tanks sent to Ukraine. Its air force is equipped with U.S. F-16s and in 2020 Warsaw signed a $4.6 billion deal for 32 F-35 fighters. But the focus of its recent military spend has been Korea, where it has signed a flurry of deals to buy tanks, aircraft and other arms.
So far, Poland has ordered between $10 billion-$12 billion worth of weaponry from Korea, said Mariusz Cielma, editor and analyst at Nowa Technika Wojskowa, a military technology news and analysis website.
The?deals?include 180 K2 Black Panther tanks, 200 K9 Thunder howitzers, 48 FA-50 light attack aircraft, and 218 K239?Chunmoo rocket launchers.
That’s only the used gear.
Poland’s appetite for new arms is even bigger.
Complementing the immediate supplies, the Koreans are expected to supply a total of 1,000 K2 tanks and 600 K9 Howitzers by the mid- to late 2020s.
“No Western country wants to scale up its military so much and so fast. Whoever will get Poland’s arms deals, they’re in for decades of benefits because you have to maintain and repair the equipment,” Cielma said.
The attraction of Korea is that their military equipment is generally cheaper than American and European alternatives and they can produce it on a tight timetable. The purchases are, of course, a poke in the eye to French President Emmanuel Macron’s dreams of “strategic autonomy” in which he imagines a Europe that is able to defend itself with homegrown (most likely, French) weapons.
But Polish leaders have made no secret that Europe’s pressure on Poland over its controversial judiciary reforms and other issues has also played a role in the decisions to going shopping in Seoul.
“We are ready to buy arms in other EU countries but they need to stop their war against Poland,” PiS chairman Jaros?aw Kaczyński?said?earlier this month. “We are ready to hand out deals and money, but not when we’re being told that there’s no rule of law in Poland.”
Warsaw has ordered Italian Leonardo helicopters for 8 billion z?oty, but the agreement stipulated that the choppers be made in Poland.
While no one questions the ambition of Poland’s spending spree, some do wonder about its feasibility and the political motives driving the push. By 2035, the country aims to spend 524 billion z?oty on the military.
“Okay, we need tanks and howitzers but do we need so many from the strategic and operational standpoint? There is no clarity as to why the ministry suddenly announced all those deals,” said retired army general Stanis?aw Koziej, former chief of Poland’s National Security Bureau, a presidential office.
Given the importance of security to Poland’s electorate, many suspect PiS is making the military investments with an eye toward next year’s national election, as the party is losing traction in?opinion polls.
If there is a change of government, the new cabinet will have to ask some tough questions on Poland’s ability to finance such an enormous military expansion, Koziej said. While Poland’s economy has been robust in recent years, the level of planned military spending is unprecedented and is bound to strain the country’s budget.
“There has to be a balance between military spending and the overall economic development of the country,” Koziej said. “Whatever the plans are, they had better go through an analysis of what the strategic conditions of Poland’s security will be after the war in Ukraine.”
Germany, meanwhile, appears to welcome Poland’s military buildup despite the difficult bilateral relationship between the two countries and the troubled history between the two. Berlin regards Poland as a buffer separating it from Russia’s sphere of influence. The more tanks and troops Poland has, the safer Germany will be.
“I get the impression that the Germans see the next hammock,” Gressel said, referring to Berlin’s reputation for sitting back and relaxing while allies, in particular the U.S., do the heavy lifting on defense.
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WSJ NEWS EXCLUSIVE??
Race to Secure Gas for Europe’s Future Winters Has Already Begun
Some companies weigh U.S. LNG deals, but talks face hurdles because of climate goals and pricing
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Though Europe has filled its reserves of natural gas for this winter, the clock is already ticking to secure energy for the coming years, which are expected to remain dogged by threats of severe shortages,
The European Union’s gas storage is around 95% full, and many analysts say the continent might avoid an?energy calamity?this winter. But procuring gas for coming winters is widely anticipated to become more difficult for European countries now that they are mostly cut off from Russian supplies and global competition is growing for finite cargoes of liquefied natural gas.
There is little additional LNG coming to the market until around 2026, when planned projects in the U.S. and Qatar come online, and Europe likely will compete for tight supplies over the next few years.
Some companies in Germany,?Europe’s manufacturing engine, are worried about having?enough energy?for the latter part of the decade. German companies including the chemical producer?BASF?SE and the?bailed-out?utility?Uniper?SE have held talks in recent weeks with America’s LNG exporters and others about potential gas-supply deals likely beginning after mid-decade, according to people familiar with the discussions.
After Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, some European companies?signed contracts for U.S. LNG. Now businesses that rely on gas are saying the continent will need more of it for years to come.
The negotiations are indicative of elevated energy-security concerns, the people said, but are complicated because while many in Europe seek gas for five to 10 years, some company and government officials are reluctant to sign longer-term supply contracts. Germany and other European nations?have set ambitious targets?to reduce fossil-fuel consumption dramatically, and companies are worried they could be on the hook for gas they no longer need.
BASF and Uniper are looking for ways to source more natural gas, including through LNG, spokespersons for the companies said.
German government officials are monitoring the discussions about gas supplies, including separate talks with the Norwegian oil-and-gas company?Equinor?AS?A, at times suggesting companies that exporters should contact, some of the people familiar with the discussions said.
A spokeswoman for Germany’s Economy and Climate Ministry said that gas purchases are the responsibility of companies.
Equinor Chief Executive Anders Opedal said in a recent interview: “We are working closely with German industry to find common ground for potential future investments,” in oil and gas as well as low-carbon energy.
EU officials have proposed forming a collective of European companies to coordinate gas-deal talks and jointly purchase fuel, thus avoiding bidding against each other for the same gas. In October, German Finance Minister Christian Lindner expressed support for the idea. But some company executives and government officials doubt such a program would work because of gas-market complexities and differing needs among countries, and some companies are going it alone in negotiations.
“We are not totally convinced about the benefits and advantages that can be achieved by bundling the gas procurement on a European level,” said a spokeswoman for?RWE?AG?, a German utility that signed a nonbinding 15-year-deal with the U.S. LNG exporter Sempra Infrastructure in May. She said RWE is urging government officials to support long-term gas contracts.
German companies aren’t alone in seeking to secure gas. Countries including France and the U.K. face threats of power shortages, and U.S. LNG executives have been calling on European governments looking for deals. A subsidiary of the British chemical company Ineos Group AG signed a nonbinding supply agreement with Sempra earlier this year, as did the Polish energy company Polskie Gornictwo Naftowe i Gazownictwo SA.
A spokesman for the U.K. government said it is working with domestic and international suppliers to explore contracts that could increase the security of energy supply.
Political opposition remains in some corners to long-term gas deals that some say could derail climate goals aimed at lowering greenhouse-gas emissions. “It’s difficult to see how they’re compatible with decarbonization plans,” said Jill Duggan, executive director for Europe at the nonprofit Environmental Defense Fund.
German officials previously said they expect the country’s natural-gas demand to peak around 2030, then gradually give way to more-renewable energy.
The tension between Europe’s immediate energy needs and long-term climate aspirations are creating a complicated market for European buyers as well as U.S. sellers. Developers of LNG projects need to sign long-term contracts with customers to finance multibillion-dollar plants that convert gas into liquid for export.
Some Europeans are looking for ways to satisfy exporters while maintaining climate objectives. One option being considered is to sign long-term deals and resell a portion of the gas in foreign markets in later years, which most U.S. LNG contracts allow, according to company executives, bankers and others briefed on the talks. Another option being discussed is for buyers to invest directly in LNG projects and sign shorter-term supply contracts, allowing them to unload the equity stake later, some of the people said.
People involved in deal talks said other gaps remain between?buyers and sellers. European buyers want lower prices from U.S. sellers, arguing that they have already profited handsomely from Europe’s energy crisis. U.S. sellers say buyers don’t appreciate the inflation and transportation costs and financial risks the companies are bearing, noting that prices are expected to rise again in coming months and years.
Commonwealth LNG, which is developing a new U.S. LNG plant in southern Louisiana, is open to 10-year contracts, but at a higher price compared with a 20-year deal, said Paul Varello, the company’s executive chairman. A shorter contract would require an exporter to amortize debt over a shorter period.
“It’s safe to say companies who can offer flexible [contract duration] and flexibility around pricing” will sign deals with Europeans, Mr. Varello said.
Disagreements over the urgency of potential gas shortages are a sticking point. Some German officials have suggested recently in private discussions that they feel less pressure to reach?gas-supply deals?before year-end, citing lower prices and better than expected storage volume, according to people familiar with the discussions. Some European business executives worry that the cushion is only temporary, and a lack of political will creates risks for future winters.
The Paris-based International Energy Agency warned this month that Europe risks being unable to meet its energy needs next year and urged it to do more to conserve the gas it has and switch to other, renewable energy sources.
Europe’s natural-gas shortfall in summer 2023 could reach 30 billion cubic meters, according to IEA estimates, or a good chunk of what the bloc needs to refill its gas-storage network before winter returns.
“Europe basically needs to do everything it can,” said Keisuke Sadamori, the IEA’s director for energy markets and security.
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Al-Monitor: Gas deal strengthens Qatar-China ties
China’s connections to the Gulf continue to expand.
November 21, 2022
Qatar’s state-owned oil and gas company signed a major gas deal with Chinese energy giant Sinopec today.?
QatarEnergy and Sinopec?signed a sale and purchase agreement whereby Qatar will provide China with four million tons of liquified natural gas per year over a period of 27 years, the official Qatar News Agency reported.?
The agency did not specify what QatarEnergy would receive in return for the gas. The company was not available for comment.?
Why it matters:?Qatar is one of the biggest producers in the world of liquified natural gas (LNG).?Qatar’s energy exports?— including LNG —?have doubled this year, with increased?European interest in Qatari gas?in response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. However, Europe has yet to sign a comprehensive?gas deal with Qatar. The QatarEnergy-Sinopec deal could increase?pressure on Europe?as a result, Bloomberg reporter Stephen Stapczynski said on Twitter.?
The QatarEnergy-Sinopec deal also further signifies improving relations between?Qatar and China, which?recently?sent?pandas?to Qatar in honor of the?World Cup in Doha. Chinese Foreign Minister?Wang Yi?visited Qatar last year to discuss the situation in Afghanistan.?
Know more:?China is getting particularly close to Qatar’s Gulf neighbors?the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia, with which energy ties are expanding. Last month, the Saudi and Chinese energy ministers pledged further cooperation regarding?oil markets, hydrogen?and more. In August,?Sinopec and Saudi Aramco?signed a cooperation deal.?
The UAE also purchased?military aircraft from China?in February.?
Gas deal strengthens Qatar-China ties - Al-Monitor: Independent, trusted coverage of the Middle East
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Al-Monitor: Azerbaijan becomes first Shiite country to open embassy in Israel
The decision is a diplomatic victory for outgoing Prime Minister Yair Lapid. Meanwhile, incoming Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is struggling to assemble his ruling coalition.
November 21, 2022
TEL AVIV, Israel — Incoming Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is currently struggling with coalition talks. Among other things, it is still unclear who will lead Israel’s diplomacy in the coming years and what the guidelines are for Israel’s new foreign policy. Thus, with public attention focused on these talks, the decision by Azerbaijan’s parliament last Friday to open an embassy in Israel received little media coverage.
Israel and Azerbaijan have entertained?diplomatic relations?for three decades. Israel has an embassy in Baku, but Azerbaijan has no embassy in Israel. The decision to open one is clearly a major diplomatic achievement for outgoing Prime Minister Yair Lapid.
Lapid was quick to?welcome this new development, saying that “it reflects the deep relationship between the two countries. This move is the result of the Israeli government’s efforts to build strong diplomatic bridges with the Muslim world.”
This was echoed by Defense Minister?Benny Gantz, who tweeted?on Nov. 20 that he spoke with his Azerbaijani counterpart, Zakir Hasanov, thanking him personally for this important decision and for his efforts to advance the two countries’ partnership over the last few years.
Lapid and Gantz have good reason to be proud of this development. It would probably improve Israel’s standing in the region and contribute to regional stability. Though Azerbaijan’s decision is, to a large degree, the direct continuation of the Abraham Accords signed by Netanyahu when he was prime minister, credit for it should go to the leaders of the current government. They tightened relations with the other states in the region, rehabilitated Israel’s relationship with?Jordan?and?Turkey, and strengthened the alliance with Egypt. In short, they moved forward with the Abraham Accords.
This is certainly true in the case of Azerbaijan, which has close relations with Israel based on a shared fear of Iran’s intentions. Azerbaijan shares a border with Iran and it is a Shiite state. But the variant of Shia Islam practiced in Azerbaijan is much more moderate than the radical Shi'ism of Iran.
As a result, Jerusalem and Baku maintain closer security ties. According to foreign news reports, the?Mossad?has an active presence in Azerbaijan. In fact, the team that?stole Iran’s nuclear archive?in Tehran reportedly escaped across the Azerbaijani border.
And there is more. Security and trade agreements between Israel and Azerbaijan have expanded considerably in the last few years, so Azerbaijan is now Israel’s largest provider of energy, while Israel is one of Azerbaijan’s biggest arms suppliers.
Nevertheless, while Israel and Azerbaijan just marked 30 years of diplomatic relations, Baku has avoided establishing an embassy in Tel Aviv until now. The reason for this is fear of an escalation of its relationship with Iran and in order to align itself more closely with its ally Turkey. However, once Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan initiated a thaw in Turkey’s relationship with Israel with the creation of the current government, Azerbaijan was more confident moving forward with its relationship with Israel.
The fact that Azerbaijan made this decision knowing that a right-wing, ultra-Orthodox government will soon take power in Israel is evidence of how confident it feels about its relationship with Israel and with Prime Minister-elect Netanyahu, who visited Baku in 2016. Netanyahu has announced that he plans to expand the Abraham Accords and bring Saudi Arabia into the circle of peace. Clearly, Netanyahu again as prime minister intends to reclaim the Abraham Accords,?reminding the world?who brought them about in the first place.
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