Is the media being truthful about inventory levels?

I am on the receiving end of over 100 newsletters every week… and I love it.

Mind you, they don’t hit my Inbox - all of them have been filtered to my “Newsletters” tag and I read them at MY leisure on MY schedule.

In my client newsletter at the end of last week, I wrote extensively about the change in applications. And I produced the following graphic based upon data:

Comparing the interest rate (Blue) versus the RALI (Red - the count of the number of refinance applications). Refi applications are up (relatively speaking) and I proposed that there are two reasons:?

1. There are people that the recent rate drop under 6.5% (and some lenders are quoting some loans under 6%) is a better rate than what they currently have. Keep in mind that most home purchases between August 2023 and December 2023 are north of 7% (some near 8%) and then again in mid-April 2024 through the end of May 2024 when rates briefly rose above 7%.
2. Second, is the not so obvious. Inflation has caused home ownership costs to rise and personal credit consumption has risen to over $1T as of August 2023. Homeowners are tapping their increased equity to pay down high-interest debt.

In MLSPIN, our major MLS in Massachusetts, there were 20,421 sales between 8/2023 and 12/2023 and another 6,608 units sold between mid-April 2024 through the end of May 2024. That’s over 27,000 units in MA alone.

From August 2023 through May 2024, there were a total of 36,649 sales of single family, condos, and multifamilies of 4-units and under… so 73.8% of all sales over that timeframe are seeing lower rates than what they purchased at.

But how is all of this affecting the market? Let’s take a look at the county level reports:

I want to steer your eyes to the Market Action portion of the charts for Norfolk, Bristol, and Plymouth counties in MA.

Mind you that a score of 31+ is a seller’s market. We can SEE the market softening.

Let’s look at Inventory now. EACH county is showing a trend of decreasing inventory, which we’re seeing nationally. But is it odd?

No, it’s not odd.?

So while national pundits are trying to make a big deal about the decrease in inventory, it’s no different than what we’ve seen over the last 5 years at this point in the calendar year. It’s typical.

Don’t buy into the hype.?

Listen to what I’m sharing with you. Remember, national pundits have an agenda to get you to click. Me? I just want you to have actionable information based on actual data from our local MLS.

You need to ask your agent’s about this level of data. This is ACTIONABLE data that will affect the price you list at as well as the valid price range for your offer.

Is this important? You bet it is. On the buy side, this can equate to tens of thousands of dollars over the course of a 30-year mortgage. On the sell side, it will drive your listing price and, ultimately, your sale price.