THE MEAT MARKET - JULY 19.2021 *TRIAL VERSION * CONTACT ME FOR WEEKLY DISTRIBUTION *

Good Morning - I hope you had a good weekend; there was plenty of buy/sell activity last week. The activity was not just centered around any protein in specific; buyers far and wide have once again gone from being chased by offers to chasing offers. Signs of a market bottoming out? Prices across pork and poultry items remain “reasonable” and with offshore buyers now chasing offers i would guess these “reasonable” prices are on the move ??. Flash floods across German and Belgium this past week have the potential to curve EU pork output. The floods came on the heels of conversations amongst EU packers around production cutbacks; what type of effect could this have on EU hog/pork prices? Port congestion and a lack of equipment (containers, trucks, drivers, etc) continues to wreak havoc on arrival schedules for customers in export markets. Is this the new normal? Should we start taking into account these shipping delays as the new “norm” for the time being? I would suggest this is the best strategy moving forward; specially with yearend holidays staring right at us.?

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On the retail side; plenty of beef grinds, pork and further processed items garnished the front pages of conventional and discount retail formats. Processed meats like hams, chicken burgers, and frozen beef burgers continue to win valuable front page flyer “real estate”. If the market continues to evolve in the way it is evolving, it will be particularly challenging to secure much at levels similar to last year moving forward. Beef loin and rib cuts (steaks) continue to be sold through retail @ historically high prices. At what point would a consumer rather enjoy a steak cooked at a restaurant VS one from the grocery store if these are both @ similar price levels? This is a paradigm shift in consumer behaviour; something for the retailer to keep an eye on moving forward. From an out front planning perspective; pork spare ribs are by far the best deal on the beef, pork and poultry segments of market. Spare ribs have traded historically high through spring and summer and most wondered when they would break and get back into familiar price range territory. Spare ribs appear to be in the process of “bottoming out” near the $1.50/LB USD level. Steaks and Ribs remain kings of the grill; why not take advantage of these ribs into labour day promotions?

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?On the beef side; shortloins (Tbones) and knuckles were the items packers had to do a bit of work around this past week. North American processors have started to step into some of their fall needs early; i can’t say i blame them. Opportunities to procure goods out of origins like NZ and EU have begun to grease the wheels for the fall. Certainties around prices and availabilities remain paramount for buyers as we head into the end of year holidays. Manufacturing beef will be harder to come by as export business into China continues to gobble up availabilities across the carcass. Australian production remains subdued; over and above this, trade relationships between Canberra and Beijing remain sour. Offshore offerings remain the way forward for processors and retailers looking for price and volume commitments out front. What type of frozen offshore beef items could retailers incorporate into their beef programs? What about processors? Could pork prices moving higher once again provide some additional support to falling beef prices? I think so; particularly out of offshore destinations.?

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On the pork side; availabilities through August continued to be chipped away while price and packer attitudes firmed up. The biggest change in pork this past week came in the way of pricing and availabilities out of offshore origins; particularly EU and CAD.?Just when we thought pork prices were on the way down; ??????. Mild interest and aggresive bids out of the likes of China, Vietnam, and the Philippines have once again put packers on the driver’s seat. It became evident to me how much pent up demand we are dealing with during the most recent price setback. While it feels like it may have lasted more than it has; this recent “down” market in pork has only been around for 4-5 weeks. This was all it took for buyers and sellers to reshuffle positions and start getting into a groove one more time. These peaks and valleys are a lot more unpredictable than in years past; certainly shorter valleys and higher/steeper peaks - Makes a buyers job that much more difficult! Conversion at the packer level remains subdued; the yo-yo type of pricing activity we have seen on items like trim, fat and boneless items is very telling of that.?

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FOOD FOR THOUGHT?

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?Could beef prices be propped higher by rising pork prices?

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Out Front & Spot Buying Opportunities

** PRICING – INQUIRE VIA EMAIL/PHONE**

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Pork Bnls Pics?

Pork?Hams 4D

Pork Loin Ends?

Pork Tenderloins - Frozen?

Pork Back Ribs – Frozen?

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?Pork Spare Ribs - Med or Light

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Beef Flats - Choice

Beef Insides XT - Choice?

Beef Shortloins - Choice?

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Have a Great Week,

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Luis A. Londono

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