Measuring Velocity Is a Futile Exercise

Measuring velocity in Agile teams is a popular misstep I see too many management types championing as a critical, even sacred, metric. Here’s my take: it’s not just unhelpful—it’s actively misleading and a monumental waste of time. You’re essentially averaging averages, which results in a number derived from other numbers that are, at best, tenuously meaningful. Real value should be the gold standard for assessing team output, not these abstract numerics.

Let’s dive deeper, assuming an ideal scenario where the team is stable—a rarity in real-world organizations, but bear with me. Imagine a high-performing team, the cream of the crop, not the benchwarmers you might be used to dealing with. These professionals have navigated through storming, forming, norming, and are now at peak performance. They’re the all-stars, reflected by their top-tier salaries.

Even stacking the odds in their favor, this hypothetical team has been hammering away at the same project for months and is poised to continue. Over the last ten sprints, they’ve consistently hit 100 story points. Let’s suppose there's no variation—always 100 points. What are the odds they'll replicate this in the next sprint, all else being equal? You might guess high, but realistically, it’s akin to flipping a coin—about 50-50.

But let's say you argue, “Even if they don’t hit 100, they’ll be close, maybe even 110.” You might be right. Or not. It’s uncertain, which is exactly my point.

Now, let’s address the elephant in the room—value, both expected and realized. Sure, you argue that we should factor in value alongside velocity. But here's the crux: why obsess over velocity if value is what truly matters?

Consider this analogy: think of your favorite sports team and their performance over the last decade. How much does their win-loss record from this period predict next year's outcomes? Not much. Team compositions change, as they often do in development environments, which disrupts any stable predictive model you might hope to lean on.

Now imagine your favorite team had a stellar run, winning 10 consecutive games with the same lineup. How likely are they to win the next one? Even with consistent team composition, their odds don’t dramatically improve beyond chance. This uncertainty is akin to the fickle nature of velocity in Agile settings.

Moreover, there’s a dark side to measuring velocity. If I know we’re expected to hit 100 story points and I’m the one estimating these points, what’s stopping me from padding the numbers to ensure we meet expectations? Suddenly, we’re hitting our targets, but if the value doesn’t materialize, who’s at fault? If the product backlog is weak, should the product owner take the blame? According to our velocity, we’re delivering exactly as promised, yet the tangible outcomes tell a different story.

In conclusion, velocity is a flawed metric that offers false comfort and encourages gamesmanship over genuine productivity. Focusing on velocity is like being misled by a mirage of efficiency while wandering in the desert of actual business value. It’s not just a bad idea; it’s potentially harmful to the holistic health of your projects and teams. Let’s put this debate to rest and focus on what truly drives success—real, measurable value.

Measuring velocity is a bad idea.