McGuire Officially Certified as Winner; New Jersey Shock Poll Places Trump in Lead; Two House Races Get Major Boost

Providing you with a recap of this week’s top five news items and resources straight from our experts.?

McGuire Officially Certified as Winner?

Tuesday was certification deadline for all Virginia primary races, and state Sen. John McGuire (R-Manakin Sabot) has been declared the official Congressional District 5 Republican nominee, defeating incumbent Rep. Bob Good (R-Lynchburg).? The final total gives Sen. McGuire a 374 vote win from almost 63,000 ballots cast, or 50.3% of the vote.? ?

Virginia has no official recount law, but Rep. Good can now request and finance a full recount and is reportedly raising money for such a move.? He has a ten-day period in which to make the request.? Like in the Utah race, it is unlikely that a recount will change the final total to the degree that it alters the certified outcome.? Previously, Rep. Good challenged the City of Lynchburg’s count due to a faulty machine, but election officials claim the affected number of votes is likely less than ten.? ?

Sen. McGuire is now the prohibitive favorite to defeat Democrat Gloria Witt in the general election.? The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates VA-5 as R+14.? Former President Trump carried this district in 2020 with a 53-45% margin but is expected to do better in the current election.?

New Jersey Shock Poll Places Trump in Lead? ?

A new co/efficient survey (6/26-27; 810 NJ likely voters; live interview & text) projects that former President Donald Trump holds a small 41-40% edge over President Biden in New Jersey, the bluest of states.? While Mr. Trump has proven to “under poll” in many places during his two presidential elections, New Jersey is a place where Republicans often “over poll” in relation to how they perform at the actual ballot box.? ?

Other states, such as Minnesota and Virginia, are also returning more favorable than expected Republican presidential numbers, and while the race may well be closer than we would typically see in these places, it remains highly unlikely that Mr. Trump will carry any of these particular states.? Polling close and winning are distinct happenings, but the returned data does indicate that Trump has some momentum in unusual places not heretofore seen.?

Two House Races Get Major Boost ?

A pair of US House endorsements, one for a New Jersey Democrat and the other for a Kansas Republican, may have signaled what will happen in the respective primaries for two partisan districts.?

The death of New Jersey US Rep. Donald Payne, Jr. (D-Newark) in late April has led to a special primary election scheduled for July 16th after Mr. Payne posthumously won the regular election primary on June 4th.? Last week, Sen. Cory Booker (D), a former Newark Mayor, endorsed Newark City Council President LaMonica McIver in the special Democratic primary.? Yesterday, Gov. Phil Murphy (D) followed suit and announced his support for Ms. McIver over 10 other Democratic competitors.? Along with several local officials also backing her, Ms. McIver is the favorite to win the special primary.? ?

After this election, the District 10 Democratic Committee will then choose a nominee to replace Mr. Payne in the regular general election.? It is highly likely that the committee members will choose the special election nominee as the regular election party standard bearer.? The special general election in the safely Democratic district is scheduled for September 18th.? ?

In Kansas’ open 2nd Congressional District, former Attorney General and 2022 Republican gubernatorial nominee Derek Schmidt received the Kansas Farm Bureau’s endorsement, which represents critically important support in an agricultural district anchored in the state capital of Topeka.? Mr. Schmidt, who is already the perceived race leader, now extends his advantage with the Farm Bureau endorsement.? It is likely he will win the Republican primary and then succeed retiring Rep. Jake LaTurner (R-Topeka) in the general election.?

New Mexico Senate Race Tightens??

As the presidential race grows tighter and expands into several unlikely states, a new 1892 polling organization survey (6/19-24; 600 NM likely voters) posts President Biden to only a one-point New Mexico lead over Donald Trump and Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. (I), 43-42-8%, in a state that last went for a Republican presidential nominee in 2004.? ?

In the Senate contest, 1892 projects Sen. Martin Heinrich (D), on the ballot seeking a third term, to only a 46-42% advantage over former hedge fund CEO Nella Domenici, the daughter of the late six-term New Mexico US Senator, Pete Domenici (R).? This is a long shot Republican conversion opportunity that is beginning to draw more political interest.?

Utah Rep. Maloy’s Margin Dwindles?

Because Utah is one of the all-mail voting states, receiving and counting the ballots takes some time.? Though it earlier appeared that US Rep. Celeste Maloy (R-Cedar City) has been renominated, the later votes have swung significantly toward her opponent, businessman Colby Jenkins (R).? Reportedly, all untainted ballots are now tabulated, and Rep. Maloy’s margin has dropped to 309 votes from a turnout of more than 106,000 Individuals.? The only ballots not included in this count are the ones that may be ineligible due to verification issues.? ?

The margin is still beyond the automatic recount range under Utah election law, but Mr. Jenkins can request and finance a recount of all ballots.? An automatic recount occurs if the difference between the candidates is less than a quarter of a percentage point.? Considering the total turnout, the margin would have to drop to 266 votes, or 43 votes in Jenkins’ favor from the present total.? It is unlikely, however, that a new count will differ to the point of overturning the original outcome.? The final canvass necessary to certify the vote won’t occur until July 22nd.?

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