Maybe post-pandemic economic policies weren’t so bad after all

?? Good morning and welcome to Trendlines. This is Rob Gavin filling in again for Larry Edelman. The secret word for today is “backdated.”

Today, I use a “dog that didn’t bark” measure to underscore the success of post-pandemic economic policy. Also: Three of my favorite things about living in Boston.

Trendlines is our twice-weekly newsletter for Boston Globe Media. Click the subscribe button to keep on top of business and the economy in the region and beyond.

?? Long-term outlook

If any doubts remained about post-pandemic economic policies, they should have been put to rest by Wednesday’s estimate of gross domestic product. The GDP reading, along with reports of strong job gains, low unemployment, falling inflation, and growing retail sales, should vindicate the federal government’s aggressive stimulus measures — even accounting for the burst of inflation in 2022.

Still not convinced? Then consider an issue that characterized the aftermath of the Great Recession, but barely surfaced in the post-pandemic recovery: long-term unemployment.

??? The news

The US Commerce Department reported Wednesday that the economy grew at a solid 2.8 percent annual rate in the third quarter, down slightly from 3 percent in the second quarter. Personal income rose and consumer spending was strong. The Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation fell to just above the central bank’s target rate of 2 percent.

? How we got here

The Great Recession occurred more than a decade ago. But the stories of people who lost jobs in that downturn and struggled for months and years to find work are seared into my memory.

Studies show that even after they find jobs, the earnings of people who experience long-term unemployment can run 15 percent or more below those who were continuously employed.

?? Why this time is different

We’ve heard far fewer stories like this since the pandemic because the economy created jobs rapidly. Long-term unemployment is defined by the Labor Department as being out of work for more than six months. It peaked at 43 percent of total unemployment in March 2021, the same month President Biden signed the $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan.

The stimulus measure, followed eight months later by a $1.2 trillion infrastructure bill, helped turbocharge demand for goods, services, and ultimately workers. Long-term unemployment plunged by half in 16 months.

Compare that response to the one following the Great Recession. After approving a stimulus of about $800 billion in 2009, Congress balked at additional spending to boost the sputtering recovery. Long-term unemployment peaked in 2010 at about 45 percent, just above the pandemic level. But it took five times as long — more than seven years — to cut long-term unemployment in half.

?? Final thought

As I wrote Monday, we need to start paying down the debt that fueled this remarkable recovery. In the meantime, could we please end the narrative that the economy is hurting??

I don’t want to minimize the effects of inflation. But overall, the economy has delivered a hiring boom that shifted the balance of power in labor markets to workers, leading to higher wages, better conditions, and more opportunities. If you’re reading this while working from home, you know what I’m talking about.

Long-term unemployment remains a challenge that is not easily solved. A rapidly changing economy creates a mismatch between skills needed by new industries and those of workers losing jobs in old industries, said Lisa Lynch, a labor economist at Brandeis University. But long-term unemployment is a lot easier to tackle when hiring is strong.

“There’s nothing,” she said, “like a sustained hot economy to be really good for workers.”

?? Trending

Financial Services: Citizens Bank is closing more than a dozen branches, including six in New England, as it leans into digital banking and focuses on private banking and wealth management services.

Health Care: Amid its divorce from Dana-Farber, Mass General Brigham is creating its own cancer institute, combining the expertise and resources of MGB’s two flagship hospitals, Massachusetts General and Brigham and Women’s.

Higher Ed: Harvard President Alan Garber, in a letter to a student group, said the school has no intention of divesting from Israel.

People: Representative Katherine Clark of Revere, the number two Democrat in the House, says you can be nice and polite, but still tough as nails. Read the story from Shirley Leung.

?? The Closer

Among the recommended reading this week is another smart column by Scott Kirsner. At a time when employees can work from anywhere, Scott argues, Massachusetts should refocus economic development efforts on attracting people rather than corporations.

Well, I might be an expert on what brings people to New England, since I’ve left three times — mostly recently for Texas — only to return. So, what keeps me coming back?

The T: I’ve often said that the key to happiness in urban living is to drive as little as possible, and the T — flawed as it is — gives me a shot at that.??

The people: I’ve lived where people are very pleasant and welcoming — right up until they screw you. Bostonians can be cold, cranky, and eager to get in your face, but at least they’re upfront about it. When people here are polite and friendly, you know you’ve earned it.

The weather: On the misery scale, a New England winter is equivalent to a Houston summer. But there’s a difference. When the summer finally ends in Houston, the cooler weather is greeted with relief. In New England, the return of spring brings joy. Looking forward to summer is something I really missed.

I know it’s more expensive to live here than in Houston, but for me, it’s worth it. Sounds like the kernel of a marketing slogan.

Thanks for reading. If you’d like to get the expanded business newsletter via email, sign up at globe.com/trendlines.