Maybe don't panic so fast & keep breaking s**t: A contrarian case for strategic patience that may or may not be a poorly-disguised commentary of 2025

As a young designer, I launched my career with a landmark redesign that shaped how millions first experienced the internet. Back then, with blonde dreadlocks and a daily uniform anchored by JNCO wide-leg ravers, it's not a surprise I was drawn to bold reinvention. But thankfully, it was backed up with years of work that genuinely transformed how people connected to the digital world.

While I still believe in innovation – it legitimately continues to drive my work today – I've learned that in an era obsessed with disruption and the resulting chaos, the hardest business or creative decision isn't whether to change, but understanding when change is truly necessary. While tech headlines blare about AI revolutionizing everything and startups promising to upend entire industries, successful business and creative leadership requires a more nuanced approach.

…in an era obsessed with disruption and the resulting chaos, the hardest business or creative decision isn't whether to change, but understanding when change is truly necessary.

Consider how many 'revolutionary' technologies and design trends have fallen short of their transformative promises. Just in recent years, Meta's massive $40 billion investment in the metaverse via their Reality Labs has yet to show meaningful returns (at least until we see how well their AI smart glasses sell this year), while countless brands rushed to create virtual experiences that users largely ignored. (Full disclosure: having also served as the first Creative Director at Second Life during the initial virtual world wave, I've seen this cycle before.)

While ChatGPT and subsequent AI models have certainly driven paradigm shifting changes across industries - from software development to healthcare to creative work - successful implementations have been thoughtful rather than reactive. Companies like Microsoft with GitHub Copilot and Adobe with Firefly have shown how powerful these technologies can be when integrated strategically into existing workflows and products, rather than treating AI as a wholesale transformation right now.

The January 2025 DeepSeek breakthrough illustrates this pattern. While many treated it as a revolutionary moment that would upend the AI industry and tank American tech stocks, calmer analysis revealed it as part of a natural progression of incremental improvements in efficiency and cost reduction. The market's initial panic - including predictions of Nvidia's decline - gave way to a recognition that steady progress, even from competitors, often expands opportunities rather than destroying them. This mirrors previous cycles of technological advancement, where the real winners weren't those who tried to maintain absolute control, but those who adapted thoughtfully while maintaining their core strengths. It's a lesson in the value of measured response over reactive transformation - exactly what we're seeing play out in the more successful AI implementations at companies like Microsoft and Adobe.

TikTok offers an instructive example of thoughtful evolution versus wholesale reinvention. While it has revolutionized product discovery and created new forms of shopping behavior through its short-form content and recommendation algorithm, its success stems from methodical refinement rather than radical transformation. When we zoom out, ByteDance didn't disrupt social media overnight - they built methodically in a neglected market (short-form video in China) before expanding globally. Even its interface design evolved carefully - while introducing innovative features like the full-screen vertical feed, it maintained familiar social media conventions that made the platform accessible to new users. Even now, its most successful innovations are incremental improvements to its core algorithm and user experience, not radical platform changes.

Meanwhile, businesses and brands that maintained steady courses while making strategic improvements have often thrived. Lego has dominated the toy industry not through dramatic pivots but through relentless refinement of its core product and brand experience. Even during its near-bankruptcy in 2004, the company succeeded not by abandoning its foundations but by recommitting to them while thoughtfully expanding into digital products, movies, and experiences. Its consistent design system and brand identity have become more valuable over time, proving that strategic consistency can be more powerful than constant reinvention.

“Instead of going for the quick fix, or the quick hit, it's better to create something that will last forever.” - Rick Rubin

Coca-Cola has prospered for generations by carefully stewarding its iconic bottle design and visual identity while making measured improvements where needed. The original project brief for the Contour Bottle specified "…a glass package so distinctive as one containing Coca-Cola, so shaped that even if broken into pieces, a person could tell at a glance what it was, so distinguishable by touch that even a blind man could identify it." The Coca-Cola bottle shape has become such a powerful brand asset that it remains instantly recognizable, demonstrating how steady refinement of core creative elements often trumps radical redesigns.

Rick Rubin once said: Instead of going for the quick fix, or the quick hit, it's better to create something that will last forever. The current AI hype cycle illustrates this pattern in both business and creative contexts. While companies and agencies rush to announce AI initiatives and "digital transformation" plans, the more successful implementations, for now, have been incremental: Microsoft thoughtfully integrating AI into existing products, Spotify enhancing its recommendation engine, or Netflix refining its content algorithms. In design, we see similar wisdom from companies like Apple, which evolves its visual language gradually rather than chasing every new design trend. Consider how the iPhone's interface and form factor has evolved over 15 years - while it has changed significantly, it's done so through careful iteration rather than dramatic overhauls that might disorient users.

Clayton Christensen's research on disruptive innovation supports this measured approach. True disruption, he found, follows a specific pattern: smaller companies start by serving overlooked market segments with "good enough" products, then gradually move upmarket while maintaining their advantages.

Clayton Christensen's research on disruptive innovation supports this measured approach. True disruption, he found, follows a specific pattern: smaller companies start by serving overlooked market segments with "good enough" products, then gradually move upmarket while maintaining their advantages. In design, we've seen this with companies like Canva, which began by serving casual users overlooked by professional design tools, then gradually expanded its capabilities while maintaining its accessibility advantage. Even Figma, is incremental innovation. Multi-player is incredible, but the fundamental design process didn't radically evolve.

This pattern has implications for both business and creative leadership. Most successful companies don't thrive through radical transformation - they excel through steady, continuous improvement of their core products and services.

Similarly, enduring brands don't succeed through constant reinvention but through thoughtful evolution of their core identity. Look at Coca-Cola's visual identity - while it has modernized over decades, it has maintained key elements that preserve brand recognition and emotional connection. When true disruption threatens - and it happens far less often than tech headlines suggest - the answer isn't to transform everything.

Most successful companies don't thrive through radical transformation - they excel through steady, continuous improvement of their core products and services.

Similarly, enduring brands don't succeed through constant reinvention but through thoughtful evolution of their core identity.

The evidence shows that successful companies approach change through a clear set of principles:

- Build from strength: Excel at your core business while making measured improvements rather than chasing every new trend

- Create strategic separation: Establish dedicated units for exploring truly disruptive opportunities without destabilizing your core operations

- Practice thoughtful integration: Incorporate new technologies and capabilities in ways that enhance existing products and services rather than replacing them wholesale

- Monitor with intention: Watch carefully for genuine disruption signals, particularly in overlooked or low-end markets, while resisting pressure to make dramatic changes without clear evidence

- Protect your foundation: Maintain stable operations that preserve institutional knowledge and build deeper customer trust over time

- Value your people: Remember that perpetual transformation creates organizational stress and burnout - sometimes the boldest move is having the courage to stay steady

The human cost of constant transformation deserves special attention. The entire month of January already feels like several painful lifetimes. Perpetual change creates organizational stress, burns out employees, and can destroy the cultural foundations that make companies successful.

The human cost of constant transformation deserves special attention. The entire month of January already feels like several painful lifetimes. Perpetual change creates organizational stress, burns out people, and can destroy the cultural foundations that make companies successful. Two recent cautionary tales stand out. Meta's aggressive pivot to the metaverse has seen over $40 billion spent for the Reality Labs division since 2021, with limited consumer adoption and significant impact on the company's core social media business. Ironically, the company's more measured approach to AI - including their strategic embrace of open-source development - has proven far more successful, demonstrating how thoughtful evolution often trumps dramatic transformation.

Similarly, Nike's recent stumbles reveal the dangers of overcorrecting toward digital transformation. The athletic wear giant's aggressive push into direct-to-consumer e-commerce came at the cost of retailer relationships and brand storytelling - core strengths that had built Nike's success for decades. Even Nike's advertising, long admired and celebrated for emotional storytelling and bold creative vision, seemed to lose some of its magic as the company prioritized digital metrics over brand building. By late 2023, this digital-first strategy led to declining sales, market share losses to competitors, and a necessary strategic reversal to repair relationships with retail partners and refocus on brand narrative.

The recent wave of tech industry layoffs further reinforces this point. Companies that aggressively scaled during the pandemic tech boom - from Meta to Amazon to Google - found themselves overextended and had to pare back. Meanwhile, companies that maintained more measured growth strategies, like Apple, emerged more stable and resilient. Apple's approach to design reflects this same wisdom - while continuously innovating, it maintains consistent design principles and interface patterns that users trust and understand.

What's often overlooked is the genuine value of stability in both business operations and creative expression. Consistent, well-executed operations build customer trust, maintain quality, and preserve crucial institutional knowledge. In design and branding, consistency builds recognition and emotional connection - look at how Apple's "Shot on iPhone" campaign has evolved since 2014, building one of the most successful and adaptable advertising platforms in history through steady iteration rather than constant reinvention. The campaign's core concept - showcasing real photos and videos taken by iPhone users - has remained consistent while continuously incorporating new capabilities and cultural moments, demonstrating how a strong creative platform can evolve without losing its essential power. Most technological advances - including many recent AI applications - are "sustaining innovations" that improve existing products for existing customers. These really should be incorporated gradually into current operations, not treated as reasons for wholesale transformation.

The current obsession with disruption and transformation carries its own risks. Evidence suggests that stable, thoughtful innovation - punctuated by carefully chosen strategic changes when truly needed - often delivers better long-term results than constant transformation.

The current obsession with disruption and transformation carries its own risks. Evidence suggests that stable, thoughtful innovation - punctuated by carefully chosen strategic changes when truly needed - often delivers better long-term results than constant transformation. Rick Rubin's observation about enduring creative work resonates here: The best art divides the audience. If you put out a record and half the people who hear it absolutely love it and half the people who hear it absolutely hate it, you've done well. Look at Nike's swoosh - created in 1971 for just $35, it has maintained its cultural relevance across generations precisely because it never wavered from its core truth, requiring only the subtlest refinements while continuing to polarize and inspire.

The real art of business and creative leadership isn't constant reinvention but knowing when to change and when to stay locked in. While my career may have launched with a dramatic redesign that served millions - and I absolutely still believe deeply in the power of bold innovation - what's become clear is that the greatest challenge isn't in making the biggest changes, but in knowing precisely when they're needed.

The most successful innovators aren't just those who can envision and execute dramatic change; they're the ones who can discern when transformation is truly necessary and when steady refinement will create more value. Innovation remains as vital as ever - but it requires the wisdom to deploy it at the right moments.

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