May towers over Hollande...in every sense.
British PM Theresa May actually had a very easy time in Paris yesterday, all thanks to her choice of footwear and even nimbler diary footwork by placing Premier Hollande second in her schedule to Chancellor Merkel.
Yesterday was very telling, for all his Gallic huffing, puffing and rather empty words, especially “The sooner you go the better” Premier Hollande forgets one or two rather important points, consider:
Prime Minister Theresa May is newly installed, with a fairly united Conservative Party behind her and the UK economy breathing a sigh of relief (for now) that the worst Brexit fears of economic implosion were exactly that, just fears (True, there will be a slowdown, loss of confidence and some readjustment but certainly not the doom and gloom as forecast by ex-Chancellor George Osborne) . She also faces a very divided political opposition - and about to divide even further! The upshot is that PM May is likely to be around for several years yet.
For PM Hollande it is the opposite. He is more than likely the outgoing Premier with a far from unified party behind him - Minister Emmanuel Macron's "En Marche" (On the Move) operation should be proof enough. Equally he faces stiff political opposition from the UMP and Le Pen's FN (not forgetting the more than 30% of French people who also want their 'Frexit' referendum). In all likelihood Hollande will not even be in office to take part in the Brexit negotiations. There is a sweet irony that Hollande will have to come to London (as he did at the last election) to garner support from the massive French expat colony that resides here - anywhere between 300,000 and 400,000 strong. So if I were Theresa May I'd be having private talks with the UMP, after all it is they who will probably be in power next year.
Secondly - in every sense - Hollande/France will take the lead of Germany in Brexit talks. Angela Merkel's pre-emption on Wednesday 20th July, that Art. 50 should only be triggered when the UK was ready (and she knows that will more than likely be early 2017) was based on pragmatic economic logic that Britain is a major trading partner for all EU countries (800,000 vehicles - a fifth of all annual German production - are exported to the UK each year), so one in the eye for Mssrs Junckers, Schulz & Hollande.
Finally once the dust has settled in +/-2019 France (and the rest of the EU) needs Britain to be as closely involved with Europe as is possible. The French of all should not need reminding that cross-border security cooperation has to continue. Nobody wants to rock the economies of Europe - Italian banks are doing that just fine at the moment and one should not forget that Greece is still not out of the woods.
So Premier Hollande would do well to remember that what he says has to be believable, at the moment the reality is just the opposite...and he could soon be eating humble pie.