May 29 am, FX/S&P/BTC Commentary

Euro-1.1155. The Euro is just getting to boring in here as the views and price levels for that matter don't change. The larger degree trend is to lower prices as long as below 1.1300. Even above 1.1300 wouldn't negate the bearish view--it would just temporarily turn the trend sideways to slightly higher. The Euro going lower is part of a larger strong dollar story as I think the Usd will strengthen against most if not all pairs in a trend that last months into years. For today, resistance lies at 1.1173, 1.1192 and then 1.1217. Support comes in at 1.1148 and then 1.1129. There is a key level at 1.1118 which is a TDST support line on the weekly charts. A weekly close below that will open the door for a move to 1.05ish initially. "Everyone" expects the summer months to be dull. Maybe this year is the exception to the rule and directional volatility picks up--at least lets hope so otherwise currency forecasting will be an obsolete profession or past time. The left hand chart is the weekly UsdCnh which seems to have the market on pins and needles as to what happens near the all important 7 level. The red, horizontal line is a TDST resistance line going back to December and that comes in at exactly 6.95. Above there, obviously is the all important 6.98 to 7. My bias is that level breaks. I don't have an objective on the upside and I don't want to get into fundamentals or politics(I'll leave that to smarter analysts) but I believe it's just a matter of time. Near term support comes in at 6.8840. I expect that level to hold and for the next leg higher to break though. Below 6.8840, then look for 6.85 to hold. It would take a move/close below 6.85 to suggest a top is in.

S&P-2785. Well, the market is testing key support here. The right hand chart is the weekly and you can see the two dashed horizontal lines that come in at 2800 and 2780. A break below there should be very bearish, possibly targeting 2600 to 2570. However, there is a weekly pivot low at 2722 which is the green, dashed horizontal line. I try to be 100% chart driven but sometimes my personal views come into play and I find it hard to believe the powers that be would let the market decline to 2600-- the time just isn't right for that. For today, the market needs to get above 2821 to stabilize and above 2855 to get the market rallying/short covering kicking in.  

BTC-8630. There is a lot of resistance just ahead of 9k. For the bulls, the best case is a sideways, corrective pattern holding above 8k before the next run higher breaks 9k and accelerates towards 10k. The less bullish case is for a deeper correction to between 7500 and 7k. Either way, the market is in an uptrend and weakness should be bought. I prefer the first scenario as I think there are a lot of doubters on this rally, excluding the perma-bulls, and the one thing the market is most efficient at is hurting the majority in the least amount of time.