May 2023
By the Way - Macro commentary
The S&P 500 continued to trade in a range around the 4,000 level until last week when Congress passed the debt ceiling deal, the FED seemed prepared to not raise rates at the June meeting, and the May jobs report beat expectations by a wide margin. I remain sceptical of the durability of the breakout given several headwinds facing the market going forward, but remain mindful that fighting the tape is often an expensive exercise. Market breadth has been awful. Bull markets feature wide-spread strength across many sectors, but 2023 has displayed just the opposite. The S&P 500 is up 11.2%, but an equally weighted 500 is only 1.5% higher. Over 100% of this year's gains came from the top ten weighted stocks in the Index, and less than half of the S&P constituents are trading above their 200-day moving average...(continue reading...)
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