The Maturity of the Bitcoin Bull Market

CIFDAQ Insights

This report provides an in-depth analysis of key blockchain indicators and their implications for Bitcoin's price movements. It also explores the latest developments in meme coins, NFTs, and developer activity, offering a comprehensive overview of the crypto landscape. Dive into the insights through CIFDAQ’s perspective.

Blockchain-based indicators to gauge the maturity of the Bitcoin bull market What is MVRV Ratio:

• The MVRV Ratio compares Bitcoin’s Market Value (MV) (current market price of coins) to its Realized Value (RV) (price at which coins were last transacted on-chain).
• It reflects the extent to which Bitcoin’s market capitalization exceeds the aggregate cost basis.
• In the past four cycles, the MVRV Ratio reached at least 4 during peaks, signaling market tops.
• The current MVRV Ratio stands at 2.6, suggesting the cycle may have further room for price growth.
• The MVRV Ratio has peaked at lower levels in successive cycles, raising the possibility that it may not reach 4 before prices peak this cycle.

What is HODL Waves Framework ?

• HODL Waves measure the extent of new capital entering the Bitcoin ecosystem by analyzing how coins are transacted over time.
• Price appreciation is often driven by new buyers purchasing Bitcoin from long-term holders at incrementally higher prices.
• A prominent research tracks the percentage of Bitcoin’s free float supply moved on-chain in the last year.
• In past cycles, this measure reached at least 60% during price appreciation phases
• The current percentage is 54%, indicating potential for more coins to change hands on-chain before the current cycle peaks.
• This suggests Bitcoin’s appreciation phase may not be complete, as on-chain activity has yet to reach levels seen in previous cycles.
• ?Less than 60% of Bitcoin free float active in last year?

What are Bitcoin Miners and the MCTC Ratio ?

• The MCTC Ratio measures the ratio of Miner Cap (MC) (total value of Bitcoin held by miners) to Thermocap (TC) (cumulative value of Bitcoin issued through rewards and fees).
• It reflects miners' profitability and their potential to take profits, influencing market dynamics.
• In previous cycles, the MCTC Ratio exceeded 10 before Bitcoin’s price peaked.
• The current MCTC Ratio is around 6, indicating we are likely at an intermediate stage in the cycle.
• Like the MVRV Ratio, the MCTC Ratio has historically peaked at lower levels in successive cycles, meaning prices could peak before this ratio reaches 10 in the current cycle.

Ethereum Insights

What was Ethereum ETF Inflows in the last week and why does it matter?

• Ethereum ETFs saw positive inflows of $2.4 billion in December.
• This accounts for approximately 2-3% of Ethereum’s total supply.
• Increased inflows reflect growing institutional interest, driven by education and regulatory clarity around Ethereum.
• Ethereum is poised for significant growth in 2025, with ETFs expected to play a major role in its adoption and price dynamics.

Germany's largest bank launched an Ethereum ZK Sync-based Layer 2.

• Deutsche Bank is developing a Layer-2 (L2) blockchain on Ethereum using ZKsync technology from Matter Labs.
• The project is termed "public and permissioned," meaning it allows transparency while restricting certain actions to authorized participants. Aims to address regulatory compliance issues in public blockchains.
• Designed to enhance transaction speed and enable better regulatory oversight.
• Regulators may have “super admin rights” to monitor fund movements closely.
• The blockchain uses the ZK Stack toolkit, allowing customization for developers.
• It enables banks to experiment with blockchain technology and control which validators operate on the network. Part of "Dama 2," a Deutsche Bank multi-chain initiative under Singapore's Monetary Authority's Project Guardian.
• Project Guardian involves 24 financial institutions exploring asset tokenization via blockchains. The blockchain is in its testing phase.
• Announced by Memento Blockchain on November 6, but gained attention only recently.
• Reflects a resurgence of institutional interest in blockchain as cryptocurrency markets grow.
• Similar to private enterprise blockchains of the past, with a focus on compliance and innovation.
• ENS (Ethereum Name Service): Choosing a specific Layer 2 for domain operations.

NFT and Meme Coin Updates

Pudgy Penguins Token Launch:

• Pengu token launched with a market cap nearing $500,000, making it the third-ranked NFT project.
• Physical-to-Digital Integration:Pudgy Penguins introduced toys with QR codes linked to airdrops, blending physical collectibles with digital rewards.
• Holders of Pudgy Penguins, Lil Pudgys, and Pudgy Rods NFTs at the time of token generation.
• No snapshot of holders will be taken; eligibility depends on holding these NFTs during token generation.
• These initiatives makes the project more lucrative and this is the reason why it has clinched the 3rd position in no time.?

FARTCOIN Shenanigans:

• Truth Terminal, an AI-powered chatbot platform, turned a $40,000 investment in FARTCOIN into $25 million, a 62,400% increase.
• FARTCOIN is now Truth Terminal’s largest asset, with the platform holding over $40 million in AI-related tokens.
• The token's popularity surged further after being listed on Binance Futures, offering USD-margined perpetual contracts with 75x leverage.
• FARTCOIN grew by 150% last month and 1,300% over the last quarter, with a current market cap of $650 million.
• Despite its overall success, the token recently experienced a 23% price drop last week, trading around $0.65.
• We remain optimistic about FARTCOIN’s continued growth, supported by adoption and platforms like Truth Terminal. However, its volatility underscores the risks inherent in the crypto market.

Developer Ecosystem and Adoption:

Developer growth of 39% annually since 2015.Which we see as just a drop in the bucket, there’s more to follow.

Asia takes the lead as North America's developer share declines amid hostile regulations, with Europe close behind.

Ethereum continues to dominate in terms of developer activity and ecosystem robustness, despite Solana attracting more new developers in 2024. ETH and SOL dominate in the given below 5 continents. Image Sources: Greyscale, Developerreport,electriccapital, cryptotimes, nftpricefloor, deutschebank, farsideinvestor, Disclaimer:? Crypto products and NFTs are unregulated and can be highly risky. There may be no regulatory recourse for any loss from such transactions.