Masters 2023: My Picks

It's that time again; the bleak British precipitation continues to patter on our windowpanes as we settle in from midday (don’t tell the boss) to gaze longingly at the vivid green of Augusta National.

Ray Charles' 'Georgia on My Mind' feathers its way around our living room to signify every 5-minute ad-break. The pundits pontificate about who will win; Paul McGinley says it could be Shane's year for the umpteenth time. Golf apparel websites wither under traffic as we frantically Google “Tiger Woods Nike Turtleneck” to signify the Spring golf fashion bandwagon rolling into town.

So as fleeting fans become professional punters, I'm sticking my neck out by selecting a few names to track during this year's tournament (off the back of some rather haphazard research). Please enjoy and remember: when the fun stops, stop!

Red-Hot Favourite: It is easy to make a case for any of the top 10 or 20 players in the Official World Golf Rankings taking home the ‘Green Jacket’. Scottie Scheffler is defending champion and has somehow propelled himself to Number 1, despite nearly falling to the ground on every shot over 100 yards. Rory McIlroy is the most prodigiously talented player since Tiger and is going for the 'Slam' AGAIN. Spieth, Homa, Morikawa, Thomas and others lurk. But Jon Rahm seems to be a man possessed by reaching and occupying the summit of the standings at present. His confidence (bordering on arrogance) in his own ability gives him a super-power over his rivals whereby he looks ominously good almost every time he tees it up. In the current season, he is ranked 1st in Scoring Average, Birdie Average, Strokes Gained: Total and Most Wins (3). He appears destined to add to his major haul this year, and with 4 top-10s in his last 5 Augusta starts, it is likely to be the place he starts doing so.

Form Horse: As the only major that returns to the same venue annually, The Masters tends to throw up the same players around the top of the leaderboard. This factor combined with recent performances draws me to Jason Day. Since a missed cut in November, he has 6 top-10s in his last 8 events (the other two finishes were T-18 and T-19). Aside from being a 12-time PGA Tour winner and former World Number 1, the Aussie has 3 top-5 finishes in 11 Masters starts, and has only finished outside the top-30 thrice, mainly on account of injury (1 x WD, 2 x MC). He ranks in the top 5 players in Stokes Gained: Total, 2nd in Scrambling and his putting stats are excellent, holing over 30% of his 10-20 footers which is important on Augusta's slick and tricky greens. He also has a really low final round average of 67.40, which bodes well for a 'Back-9' charge on Sunday. He looks healthy again and his current play is somewhere near his World Number 1 best.

Left-field Pick: As mentioned above, Augusta forms a bond with certain individuals. Danny Willett is one such mortal where the leaves of Magnolia Lane's trees seem to act as Popeye's spinach to him. His sole major win was partly the doing of Jordan Spieth after a remarkable collapse in Amen Corner, but aside from that he has posted T-25 and T-12 since 2020. In his 6 starts this calendar year, he has made the cut in 5, with his latest showing a T-27 at The Players. Going back a little further, he was a gnat's whisker away from beginning his season with a win in September at the Fortinet Championship, only to 3-putt the final green and relinquish the victory to Max Homa. Several withdrawals followed, but with Willett off the treatment table and trending well, he can post a decent finish at a venue where he snatched an improbable victory not so long ago in 2016.

Flop: Forgetting the politics and looking objectively at the quality of the golf and competition, it seems certain that some of the high-profile LIV players are going to have a tough time at Augusta. Dustin Johnson had a fantastic record in the inaugural season of the new league, but his early form in 2023 is indicative of either rust or complacency. He finished 13th and 37th in the first two 48-player tournaments of 2023, shooting 77 and 78 respectively in his 3rd (and final) rounds. He was ruthless and commanding in his record-breaking 2020 Masters victory, but it was a wet and soft November golf course ready to be overpowered. Despite a 7th in Orlando last weekend, I'm not sure DJ will be gameday-ready with the required touch and finesse to repeat in a firmer, faster April edition.

Surprise: With golfing records tumbling on a seemingly weekly basis, it is astounding that Nick Price shot a course-record 9-under-par 63 nearly four decades ago, which has been matched (by Greg Norman in that fateful 1996 tournament) but never usurped. The establishment of LIV golf, the never-ending lengthening of the par-5 13th and the impending roll-back of the ball means that there is extra motivation and a limited window to go lower than ever. Prediction: 2023 will see a new scoring low (and emotional high) at Augusta National, with a 62 or better.