The Masters 2022
The Masters?has finally come around once again. It's been 12 long months since we saw inaugural Japanese winner Hideki Matsuyama don the Green Jacket and now, it's just 7 more days until we're back in Butler's Cabin listening to the dulcet tones of one Jim Nantz, as he speaks to 2022's Champion and Low Amateur.
Field: 91 Players
Cut: Top 50 and Ties after 36 Holes
First Tee: Thursday April 7th
Defending Champion: Hideki Matsuyama
When last the cameras graced the rolling hills and intricate detail of Augusta National GC, we were being treated to our second Masters tournament in less than 6 months and the world was in a much different place. This time, it feels even more like a traditional Masters, the Superbowl of golf, if you will.
Whilst Augusta is far from the bright lights of Los Angeles, before I continue to wax lyrical about golf's crown jewel - alongside some stats/trends for those of you who enjoy that side of things - my betting selections are below, the logic behind those selections will be at the tail end of my ravings!
All of the above are 8 places each-way with 1/5th the terms and prices are correct at the time of writing (19:45 Monday, 04/04/22) and please, gamble responsibly.
Now, back to my musings about the best week in golf..
I'd never have thought someone could look forward to downloading an app so much but if you've tried the Masters app, you'll understand. If you have not tried it, do so this week - you won't regret one second of it. Like watching a brilliant movie for the first time, your experience will only be enhanced by the degree of detail that is available at a few quick taps.
Whilst Phil Mickelson will be missing his first masters since around 1929, there is a much bigger story which has been developing for months, coming to a crux. Tiger Woods, who almost lost a leg after a horrific car crash back in February 2021, is on site at Augusta National, practicing as we speak. Breathe.
For the past few months, Tiger has slowly been edging his way back to fitness away from the limelight and once again, he's proved to be by far the biggest needle mover in the sport. Tiger's privacy was of no concern to the public as a select few tracked his private jet, shared it online and Twitter exploded. The greatest of all time, could be just days away from a sensational return to the game he loves.
Working on golf during a week like this, feels like more of a privilege at times than a job and whilst the scrutiny levels are at their annual peak - very little can dampen my spirits as the world's best tee it up at Augusta.
Well then, who's going to throw darts and what names should I look out for?
We'll start with a couple of the players where uncertainty shrouds their health status, namely defending champ Hideki Matsuyama - Matsuyama has been struggling with injury for a few weeks now after a red hot start to the season and after a withdrawal last week, look to avoid him for now. In a similar vein, Paul Casey and Abraham Ancer have also had a withdrawal in the last 2 weeks with Casey hitting just the 3rd fairway at the WGC Dell Matchplay, before calling it quits. The mercurial Bryson DeChambeau has also been struggling as late with a wrist injury and that, combined with course form of 46-34-29 in his last three attempts has his price trending in the wrong direction.
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Jon Rahm, Justin Thomas, Cameron Smith, Scottie Scheffler and Dustin Johnson make up the front end of the market with Scheffler taking the official world No.1 spot from Rahm by winning the match-play and Players Champion Cam Smith in possession of fantastic course form (3 T-10's in his last 4 attempts at the Masters) it's a stacked front end. However, with Rahm's putter and game around-the-green deserting him of late and Dustin Johnson only now rounding back into form, Justin Thomas is my pick of the sub-20's litter.
Xander Schauffele, Rory McIlroy, Patrick Cantlay and Jordan Spieth all come to the event with their respective game's a touch out of shape and I'll be avoiding them at these prices as a result!
The below screenshot is based off the model I ran for the week, as you can see, course specialist Jordan Spieth is coming out very far down the field based off pure Strokes Gained metrics (with some parameters of my own) but the main thing here is the relatively poor approach figures for players of this caliber. I'll be happily wrong if one of them goes low and challenges but until I see a Sunday 65 from Rory while in contention - I'll stick to the fade
Down the field a touch we have the likes of former champion Adam Scott, in-form Englishman Tyrrell Hatton and the man who possesses holes-in-one on both the 17th at TPC Sawgrass and the famous 16th, Redbud, here at Augusta National GC, Shane Lowry. Three whom I wouldn't be against backing at current prices and certainly not against Hatton, who was my second click of the week!
Selection Breakdown:
Justin Thomas - Over the last 3 months, no player has gained more strokes than JT, alongside course form of 21-4-12-17-22 and a putter that's starting to behave, it's hard to look past the man who was in contention here until a blow up 8 on the Par 5 13th here a year ago, dashed his tournament hopes as Hideki charged ahead. JT's display in the 2nd round of the Players Championship will go down as one of the greatest ball striking, shot shaping rounds of the past decade in my opinion and when coupled with 3 T-10's in his past 5 events, JT comes in, in red hot form.
Brooks Koepka - Since the Phoenix Open, one of his favourite events of the year, Brooks has been on a charge. He has made it quite clear that he's disappointed with his world ranking and now that he appears to be full healthy chances are, as always in majors, Brooks will be in contention come the weekend. Form since Phoenix reads 3-MC-16-MC-12-5 (was -4 before playing the par 3 17th twice in 2 hours with a 40mph wind at Sawgrass where he MC). Here's his course form for good measure too 11-2-7-MC, including last year's missed cut when he was on one knee and shouldn't have been playing at all.
Tyrrell Hatton & Joaquin Niemann - Over the last three months, Hatton and Niemann both rank inside the Top 15 in the field as far as total strokes gained are concerned, whilst Niemann won going away at Riviera a few weeks ago, (a course with a very direct link to Augusta) Hatton boasts superb current form of 2-13-21-9 and with his game coming nicely back into view, it can't be long before the hottest mic in golf, racks up another win.
Marc Leishman & Si Woo Kim - Two players who, at times can be absolute geniuses around the greens, the Augusta course suits many a player who can tend to be inaccurate off the tee however, Si Woo's iron game is starting to look sharp and but for that *incident* last year which saw him putting with a 3 wood for the remainder of his round while contending, who knows what might have happened!
Leishman too, relishes the challenge. Having watched on as compatriot Adam Scott took the first Aussie Green Jacket home in 2013, he'll be as keen as ever to claim one of his own. Especially after a few near misses (9-49-13-5 in his last 4 attempts).
Now, I'm not one for confirmation bias but, if one of my favourite golf models (not that kind) is anything to go by - the top 8 players would get me very excited as to whom I've selected.
Sidenote: If you have the time to read how this model works, do it. It's one of the best and most accurate modeling solutions to golf that I've come across and Josh here, is a gent. In short, he takes into account far more accurate figures for Driving Distance and Stokes Gained: Approach subsequent to particular distance buckets, for each player, for each hole.
I'll check back in later in the week, hopefully we'll have a leaderboard to chat about!
Just like last year, for those of you looking to have a punt,?beware the seasonal tipsters?who are sure to lead you astray with wacky logic and sport specific jargon. Make sure to keep it fun and always,?gamble responsibly - best of luck!