Mastering Estimation: The Key to Every Project’s Success

Anyone who has worked on a project can very well relate to the surprises some projects throw up. For a Project Manager, steering a Project to success is very fulfilling but fraught with landmines. Multiple projects fail. A Google search of this topic (statistics on Project failures) throws up different figures ranging from about 30% to around 70% . ?

What is the reason for projects not meeting their objectives?

Let us consider a project using a Predictive framework (waterfall Project) which starts with an objective of delivering on a predetermined scope. Even as the Project idea is born (as a business case), ?high level estimate is made of the Project cost and timeline. This is even before a Project Manager is appointed. Let us name this set of ?ESTIMATES as ?‘A’

At the Planning stage (which is after the Project Sponsor appoints the Project Manager who gets down to initiate the Project with his selected team and then to plan), the Project Team led by the Project Manager comes up with a detailed plan of the Project Budget and Schedule. Let us name these ESTIMATES as ?‘B’.

At this phase gate, if the two set of estimates are in the vicinity of each other, the Project moves on without much resistance. There is every possibility of the two estimates A and B being very distant from each other as A is a high level ‘Top Down’ estimate whereas B is a ‘Bottom Up’ detailed estimate (which has considered all the possible risks and cost of mitigating them). This is where the organization’s experience and maturity with Projects come in. Organizations with a higher level of project management maturity will be able to understand and appreciate the logic behind the difference and go ahead with projects of strategic importance.

Let us say the Project gets a go ahead, is executed and ends with a set of ACTUAL SPEND and COMPLETION TIME. Let us call these set of Actuals as ‘C’.

The project is considered a success or failure depending on how close the Actuals C are to the Planned Estimates B.

How does a Team develop mature Estimates? It depends on

a) How complex the project is and how experienced the Project Team is.

b)Lessons the team has learnt from past projects

c) How well it is able to execute its plans.

Agile Projects

Estimates play a key role in Agile Projects as well. Let us consider a Scrum Project. High level Estimates start as early as the Initiation stage with Estimating Epics. Detailed User Story Estimates done at the Plan & Estimate stage form the basis for Sprint Backlog, Team Velocity and the Burndown Chart.

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#Projectmaturity #Projectsuccess #Projectfailure #Bottomupestimates #Topdownestimates