Masking against the COVID19 viral overload

Vladimir Lenin said, “There are decades that nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen.” The last several weeks have certainly been far beyond imagination in a hundred years. Can anybody ever be ready for a catastrophe in the scale of the COVID19 virus engulfing and literally shutting down the world? Human kind has been forced to take a break like never before except that ironically the travel destinations, transporters and hotels are all empty. In this unconventional war, all nations oddly find themselves fighting on the same side against the unseen enemy. John Lennon’s “Imagine” comes to mind albeit in very “unimagined” circumstances. The doctors, nurses, ward boys, pathologists and other health-care workers with their stethoscopes, PPE equipment, gloves, masks & medicines are fighting on the frontlines and not the soldiers with their ammunition that nations have built spending enormous resources in order to destroy one another. The health-care and essential service providers are converging all their energies risking their own lives worldwide to keep the human race alive. Ironically this war is not about destruction and killing humans but about conservation and saving lives. Will Lawrence Durell’s observation “History is an endless repetition of the wrong way of living” still hold true after we overcome the virus threat is anybody’s guess. 

While the medical doctors are busy saving lives from the clutches of the virus and other related diseases, the economists and financial doctors have an equally challenging job in trying to save the economy, protect jobs, limit unemployment and related hunger deaths. Hunger continues to be the number one cause for deaths globally with an estimated figure of over 2.5 million such deaths every year in India alone. Ironically, humans have never acted in any urgency to save the malnourished from their plight. This is probably for the first time in recent history that the rich are apprehensive that there may not be sufficient beds with ventilators in hospitals should they require such critical care. Will the surge in unemployment push many below the poverty line and result in more deaths from hunger? Is it fair to trade the number of deaths resulting from COVID19 with the additional deaths caused by hunger? The secondary health fall-outs and challenges resulting out of such degradation of so many lives will be a further cost difficult to estimate. The livelihood and the lives of the poorest strata are inseparable. Does India have much of a choice in keeping the economy totally closed beyond 20th April, 2020 for too long? 

While the country is fighting to contain the viral spread, the Government has to find ways to mitigate the risks it poses to the livelihood of the poorest. The relief measures offered so far (Rs.1.7 lakh crores) has been more about packaging rather than significant additional costs to the economy. It takes considerable time, complicated formalities and innumerable permissions to open a business in India. While India cannot match the advanced developed countries, the Government will quickly need to roll out Rs.9-10 lakh crores of relief measures sooner in order to save people and businesses from sinking. The Government appeared somewhat unhurried in initially assessing the impact of the virus attack on the economy in India and hence the staggered response for the economy. The catastrophe shut down China for over 3 months and still counting. China has been able to contain the disease to only a couple of provinces primarily with help of the most stringent measures, well equipped medical resources, sizeable number of testing and advanced technology enabled contact tracing and quarantine methods. On the contrary, in India the virus has spread to most parts of the country with inadequate medical facilities, equipment and insufficient testing so far. This epidemic is not model-able but it is safe to say that severe economic pains will be encountered by all economies across the world and India will not be any exception. Singapore, which had been internationally commended for its prompt actions to contain the initial outbreak appears to be suffering a second wave of the virus as it recorded the 447 cases, the largest daily jump in cases of COVID-19 on the 16th of April. It is estimated that half of the new cases in Singapore are linked to large dormitories that house migrant workers and living in cramped and unsanitary conditions. India’s slums, temporary migrant settlements and the homeless are even more susceptible. South Korea’s resurgent cases or those who have tested positive for the virus after full recovery has reached 163. The unpredictable behaviour of the virus and the antibodies required to counter it will keep us on tenterhooks for a prolonged period of time. Clearly, in order to contain the spread of the COVID19 virus, we may require repeated shut downs, partial shut downs or district wise shut downs that will continue for several months. For large parts of the current financial year most businesses will get severely affected. With the social distancing restrictions that will be required for several months, the viability and solvency of many businesses will be challenged since they will need to factor a maximum operating capacity of less than 50% for the year, some even as low as 20-30% of their normal capacities. 

Most Medium and Small Enterprises (MSMEs), the backbone of the Indian economy employing over 40% of the labour force, are in the ICU and will require all possible support. A forbearance on instalments and interests on loans for a minimum of 6 months for those businesses not able to restart full capacity operations in the next couple of months will be necessary for all companies. Those able to only operate at lower capacities will require a longer moratorium. The EPF transfers declared by the Government can be made more meaningful without conditions. Special relief packages including employment protection plans need to be drawn out for MSMEs, entertainment, retail and travel related industries which will continue to be shut or operate marginally for several months. To increase the money available in the hands of individuals, taxable income below Rs.10 lacs should be exempt from income tax for the AY 2020-21, while additional COVID19 Cess may be charged on taxable incomes above Rs.1 crore with incremental percentages for every additional crore of earnings. Companies may be subject to a COVID19 Cess for those earning above Rs.10 crores, in a similar slab wise manner. The surcharge percentages for the different slabs may also be increased for the current financial year.

All persons in India should be encouraged to use the “Aarogya Setu” app launched by the Government. A pan India Contact Tracing IT system to be set up integrating the centralized COVID19 task force set up by the Government of India with the respective States task forces, the district authorities and the testing laboratories for better coordination and transparent real time reporting of COVID19 patients and potential spreaders. The Government has outlined the criterion of classifying red, orange and green zones based on the infections in the cities or districts and has laid down the limited activities that will be allowed. All persons obtaining permits for movement must be tracked on a daily basis for their health status by the authorizing agency. Contact tracing must be done within 24 hours and home quarantine or isolation procedures to be followed as stipulated. This job may be outsourced to credible security agencies to support the administration. Regular audits must be put in place to check the working of the agency whether public or private. The sooner we can put up this integrated IT system the quicker we can restart the economy while keeping the virus spread under control. It must be remembered that lock-downs are methods of containment and not a prescription for cure. 

Our disciplined para and military troops may be deployed for disaster management roles, in coordination with the central and state COVID19 task forces, to ensure better logistics support for the supply chains and to distribute provisions following social distancing norms in the densely populated areas as in slums and temporary migrant arrangements. Military vehicles and escorts may be required for transportation of raw materials and finished goods across sensitive areas and shutdown districts. The farmers require support for their harvesting process, hence identifying and transporting the closest available labourers in a secured manner is most essential for possible deployment in the fields. Voluntary organisations and our troops may also help in the harvesting process in quick training time. The COVID19 task forces must set up helplines to gather information about agricultural products lying in different parts of India and to ensure their transportation to storage facilities and markets to prevent wastage. Considering the uncertainty, special trains and connecting transportation should be arranged for the stranded migrant workers across the country under the coordination of the central & states COVID19 task forces and supervision of the troops. This exercise could well turn out to be the largest civilian evacuation in history. 

The doctors and health service providers must be provided proper PPE equipment and N95 masks urgently. We must remember that once SARS was contained in the community the spread occurred primarily in hospitals among health-workers. Wearing masks outside homes should be strictly adhered to. Schools and colleges will need to continue online classes for the next three months. Institutes, offices and factories must ensure thermal monitoring, social distancing, placing hand sanitisers and highest standards of hygiene in campuses, classrooms, assemblies, dining halls, dormitories, lifts, buses and to allow students or employees to work from homes. Retailers to restrict number of visitors and the duration allowed for every visitor. Health clinics must restrict number of patients to half of their waiting area seating capacities and ensure that doctors complete their appointments as per scheduled time. Doctors, lawyers, chartered accountants and other consultants should be encouraged to consult over the phone/video. The States helplines to list out the names of hospitals, clinics and doctors that will see patients with COVID19 and influenza. Exclusive ambulances for handling COVID19 patients to become a norm. Restaurant layouts will need to conform to social distancing norms. Banquets, conferences, parties, religious gatherings, political party meetings will have to wait or require special permission for limited gatherings by disclosing details of all participants from the designated authority in the opened districts till the community is free of the COVID19 threat. 

Mass public transport like buses, trains, metros and airlines should be permitted to carry a maximum of half to two thirds of the seating capacity maintaining social distancing norms. All forms of public transport must place sanitizers for passengers. Special disinfecting procedures (inside out) to be made mandatory for every public vehicle plying every day preferably by a credible third party who will issue a daily certification. Inter-state bus stands, railway stations, airports must follow stringent thermal checking procedures and disinfecting procedures every 1-2 hours. We will need to unlearn things we have learned in the past and have to adjust to a new normal till the war against the virus is won with the discovery of a vaccine and development of community immunity. Thomas Jefferson’s “I like the dreams of the future better than the history of the past” resonates strongly and convinces me that the other side of COVID19 will be a better and more responsible world. 

Debashis Ghosal, FCA

CEO & MD of Daiwik Hotels- India’s first pilgrim hotels, Pioneer multiplexer in India with the brand of 89 Cinemas , 17th April, 2020