To Mask or Not to Mask? The power of Presidential example

We think of political leaders as powerful, and talk about a particular politician or political party being “in power”. But it has long been recognised that, in practice, the influence of political leaders over individual members of their government and civil servants is limited. A President can issue a directive, or change a policy, but those directives and policies can be ignored or subverted by others if they think they can get away with it. And political power has no effect on scientific fact.

The Covid-19 pandemic has exposed the limits of political power around the world. New policies and initiatives have been introduced at high speed, often challenged previous norms and practices and have faced resistance. Vaccine hesitance is a case in point: should governments have the power to compel citizens, or public servants, to take a vaccine? Facemasks are another.

As with the vaccines, science has shown the value of facemasks in fighting the spread of Covid-19. Masks reduce the number of virus particles emitted by an infected person, and reduce the number inhaled by those around them. But in both cases – vaccines and masks – many refuse to follow the scientific advice.

Tanzania’s experience with Covid-19 is unique in ways that shed light on presidential power. In early June 2020, after three days of national prayer, Covid-19 was declared defeated by President John Pombe Magufuli. Science took a back seat in the fight against the pandemic. Travel restrictions were relaxed. Social distancing became optional rather than mandatory. Widespread testing and contact tracing essentially stopped, and mask-wearing was seen as borderline unpatriotic.

Soon after President Samia Suluhu Hassan took office, science resurfaced. She appointed a presidential scientific advisory committee on Covid-19. Tanzania signed up to COVAX, the international effort to distribute Covid-19 vaccines to poorer countries. Some data on infections and deaths has been released. Mask-wearing has been rehabilitated following presidential approval and, most importantly, presidential example.

The different approaches of Presidents Magufuli and Hassan to Covid-19 offer a chance to observe the power of presidential pronouncements on human behaviour. To that end, Twaweza collected visual data to explore this power on the behaviour of senior government officials. We examined 707 photos of senior politicians and civil servants at work posted online between February 2020 and July 2021. These government officials appear 5,672 times in the photos we analysed.

The results are striking. Between July 2020 and January 2021, when Covid-19 was said to have been defeated in Tanzania, fewer than 2% of senior government leaders were wearing masks in the photos (see chart). Since March 2021, when President Hassan assumed office, the share of senior leaders wearing masks has expanded by a factor of 10 to over 20%. And they continue to rise: since early July 2021, over half have had a mask on in the photos we analysed.

This is interesting for two reasons. First, it is clear that senior public servants take their cue from the president. The Hassan administration has brought a new approach to fighting the pandemic that includes mask wearing, and senior politicians and civil servants have followed the new President’s lead.

Second, the President can intensify other measures to fight the coronavirus pandemic. The continued lack of regular updates on the number of Covid-19 cases, hospitalisations and deaths could do with her personal attention. Does the government have credible data that it is just not releasing? If so, the President should insist on more transparency. Or, are we lacking reliable data because it is not being systematically collected? If so, she can demand that the testing and monitoring systems be activated.?

Other aspects of the national response to the pandemic could be improved – informed, of course, by the scientific advice. Nearly two months after the official start of the vaccination campaign, indications are that the pace of vaccine uptake is frustratingly slow. How can it be accelerated? Further, how can we strengthen compliance with measures that lower the risk of transmission, like social distancing or transport restrictions?

These data on mask-wearing trends among government officials reveal the power of Tanzania’s presidential words and actions. President Samia Suluhu Hassan can use that power, amplified by science, to defeat Covid-19 in the country.

Original data collection, analysis and visualization by Coleta Mpuya, Lawi Chilendu, Michael Kamukulu and Ben Taylor.

This article was first published in The Citizen of Saturday September 18, 2021.